Rishi Sunak has triggered two by-elections for Tory seats next month, but is uncertain about when he can hold a third contest for the seat held by former minister Nadine Dorries. Sunak introduced the legal acts needed for contests to be held in Uxbridge and South Ruislip, as well as Selby. Both Boris Johnson and Nigel Adams formally resigned as MPs this week. However, Dorries has refused to fulfill her promise to immediately resign as MP for the Mid Bedfordshire seat, leaving the prime minister frustrated.
Sunak wanted to hold all three by-elections on the same day, but Dorries is intentionally delaying her resignation to inconvenience Sunak. While Sunak is willing to hold a by-election during his vacation, Dorries seems determined to ruin his holiday. The by-elections for Selby and Uxbridge are expected to be held on either July 13 or July 20.
The Tories are favored to win in Selby, as they defend a majority of 20,137. However, Labor officials are hopeful that they can overturn this majority. On the other hand, Labor is overwhelmingly favored to win Johnson’s old seat in Uxbridge, where the former prime minister had a majority of 7,210 in 2019.
A by-election in Mid Bedfordshire cannot be held until Dorries formally resigns, which requires her to follow an antiquated parliamentary procedure. Dorries has indicated that she will formally resign at her own time, citing the previous example of a Labor MP, Rosie Cooper, who took two months last year to follow up on her announced resignation.
Despite the tensions between Dorries and Sunak, the Liberal Democrats are confident about winning the Mid Beds seat. This has led to an unofficial non-aggression pact between Labor and the Lib Dems, allowing them to focus their resources on places where they are most likely to beat the Tories. Although both parties deny any formal deal, their electoral strategies aim to inflict maximum damage on the Conservative party.
The Conservatives acknowledge that winning the by-elections will be difficult in the circumstances sparked by Johnson and his allies leaving the Commons. A senior party official admits that they expect to lose all three contests.
In summary, Rishi Sunak has triggered two by-elections for Tory seats next month, but the timing of the third contest for Nadine Dorries’ seat remains uncertain. Dorries is intentionally delaying her resignation to inconvenience Sunak, who wanted to hold all three by-elections on the same day. The Tories are favored to win in Selby but are likely to lose Johnson’s old seat in Uxbridge. The Liberal Democrats are confident about winning the Mid Beds seat, thanks to an unofficial non-aggression pact with Labor. Despite the difficulties, the Conservatives are determined to put up a fight in the by-elections.
Rishi Sunak’s By-election Challenges: An Analysis of the Seat Races and Political Maneuvering
Introduction:
In the world of UK politics, Rishi Sunak is facing a series of challenges as he attempts to navigate the complex landscape of by-elections. Two dangerous contests have been triggered for Tory seats next month, while the timing of a third contest remains uncertain. This article explores the dynamics of these by-elections and the political maneuvering behind them.
By-election Challenges:
The first challenge faced by Sunak is the delay in holding a by-election for the seat held by former minister Nadine Dorries. Despite Sunak’s efforts to trigger the contest, Dorries has refused to immediately resign, causing frustration for the prime minister. The strategic delaying tactic employed by Dorries is aimed at inconveniencing Sunak and potentially impacting the date of the by-election, creating further complications for Sunak’s plans.
Another challenge for Sunak lies in organizing three by-elections on the same day. Sunak’s intention was to tear off the blindfold and hold all three contests concurrently, maximizing political impact and relieving the party of potential burdens during the summer recess. However, Dorries’ delay in resigning threatens to disrupt Sunak’s plan, potentially leading to a by-election taking place during the summer or early autumn.
The Seat Races:
The by-election for Selby, where Nigel Adams held his seat, is expected to be held on either July 13 or July 20. The Tories are favored to win, defending a majority of 20,137. Despite their confidence, Labor officials are hopeful that they can overturn this majority, making the contest more competitive than anticipated.
On the other hand, the by-election for Uxbridge, previously held by Boris Johnson, is overwhelmingly favored to be won by Labor. The former prime minister secured a majority of 7,210 in the 2019 general election, making it a challenging seat for the Tories to retain. This contest will be closely watched as an indication of voter sentiment and the performance of the current government.
The Mid Bedfordshire seat, currently held by Nadine Dorries, remains under scrutiny, with a by-election unable to be held until her formal resignation. While Dorries has expressed her intention to resign, the timing of this resignation remains uncertain. Dorries has cited the example of a Labor MP who took two months to follow up on her announced resignation, indicating that she will do the same.
Political Maneuvering and Unofficial Agreements:
The dynamics of the by-elections are further complicated by an unofficial non-aggression pact between Labor and the Liberal Democrats. This strategic agreement allows both parties to allocate resources to seats where they have the highest chance of defeating the Tories. Although both parties deny a formal deal, this resource targeting effectively aims to inflict maximum damage on Sunak’s party.
The Liberal Democrats are particularly confident about winning the Mid Beds seat, posing a major threat to Conservative prospects. By consolidating the anti-Tory vote, the Lib Dems hope to send a clear message to the government. This tactic is part of a wider trend that has seen the Lib Dems secure historic victories in recent by-elections against the Conservatives, such as in North Shropshire, Chesham and Amersham, and Tiverton and Honiton.
A Test of Strength:
The Conservative party acknowledges the difficulties in these by-elections, given the circumstances that sparked the contests. The departure of Johnson and his allies from the Commons has created a challenging environment for the Tories. A senior party official concedes that they expect to lose all three contests, indicating the uphill battle they face.
Conclusion:
Rishi Sunak’s by-election challenges reflect the complexities of UK politics and the strategic maneuvering employed by politicians. The delay in holding a by-election for Nadine Dorries’ seat and the potential disruption to Sunak’s plans highlight the political tensions at play. The outcomes of the by-elections in Selby and Uxbridge will have significant implications for the government and provide insights into public sentiment. As the seat races unfold, it remains to be seen how the unofficial agreements between parties will impact the final results.
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Rishi Sunak has kicked off two dangerous by-elections for Tory seats next month but has been left guessing when he will be able to hold a third contest for the seat held by former minister Nadine Dorries.
Sunak Wednesday introduced the legal acts needed to trigger contests to be held in Uxbridge and South Ruislip, the former home of Boris Johnson, and Selby, the home held by Johnson ally Nigel Adams. Both formally resigned as MPs this week.
But the prime minister was left to seethe dories’ refusing to fulfill his promise last Friday to resign immediately as MP for the Mid Bedfordshire seat.
Sunak wanted to hold all three by-elections on the same day – the political equivalent of tearing off a blindfold – so that the pain would be taken on the same July night, before MPs leave for summer recess.
But Dorries, who blames No. 10 for blocking his elevation to the House of Lords on Johnson’s resignation honors list, told friends he wants to hurt Sunak.
“She wouldn’t mind ruining Rishi’s holiday,” said a friend, arguing that if Dorries refrained from formally resigning for a few weeks, the prime minister might have to hold a by-election in the summer or early autumn.
“Rishi hasn’t taken a vacation for three and a half years,” retorted an ally of the prime minister. “That won’t bother him.” Another senior Tory official said: “He thinks the people of Mid Bedfordshire deserve proper representation in this house.”
Selby and Uxbridge by-elections are expected to be held on 13 July or 20 July. Both contests are problematic for Sunak, who is struggling to contain intra-party feuds and the fallout from rising mortgage rates.
Bookmakers make the Tories strict favorites to win Selby in Yorkshire, where the party defends a majority of 20,137, but Labor officials said they hoped the party could overturn him.
However, Labor is overwhelmingly favorites to win Johnson’s old seat, which the former prime minister won in 2019 with a majority of 7,210.
A by-election in Mid Bedfordshire cannot be held until Dorries has taken the formal step of resignation, which requires her to write to the clerk of the exchequer in antiquated parliamentary procedure.
Dorries has told friends she will formally resign at a time of her choosing, noting that it took a Labor MP, Rosie Cooper, two months last year to follow up on her announced resignation.
Dorries maintained on Twitter Wednesday evening that it was still “definitely my intention to resign” but said he had first made official requests for personal information, ostensibly for his thwarted peerage, to the House of Lords Appointments Committee, Secretary of Cabinet Simon Case and the Cabinet Office.
“I have requested copies of WhatsApp, text messages, all emails and minutes of both formal and informal meetings with names of prominent figures not redacted,” he wrote. “I will therefore take the time to properly consider the information that is being provided to me.”
Greg Hands, chairman of the Tory party, visited the Dorries constituency on Sunday and attempted to calm relations.
“I pay tribute to Nadine,” he said. “She was a member of parliament for 18 years and was elected with 60% of the vote last time. She was a People’s MP and she did brilliant work to keep children safe with the online safety bill and all these things.
But relations between Dorries and Sunak are terrible. The former culture secretary told Talk TV Sunak was a “privileged stylish boy” who “cruelly” blocked her from a seat in the House of Lords.
Whenever the vote is cast, the Liberal Democrats are confident of winning the Mid Beds seat and are the bookies’ favourites, even though Labor insists they will fight to win the seat, which was won by Dorries with a majority of 24,664 in the 2008 general election. 2019.
Privately, Labor officials admit that if it becomes clear they cannot win in the Mid Beds, they will “direct resources” to places where they are most likely to beat the Tories.
Daisy Cooper, Deputy Lib Dem Leader, said: “This by-election will be a two-way race between the Liberal Democrats and an out-of-this-world Conservative party.
“We’ve already heard from lifelong Conservative and Labor voters across Bedfordshire who are backing the Liberal Democrats to send a message to this government.”
Previously, Labor had quietly withdrawn in a by-election in which the party stood no chance of winning, allowing the Lib Dems to dominate the anti-Tory vote.
This unofficial non-aggression pact, which is reciprocated by the Lib Dems in seats targeted by Labour, has helped the Center Party secure recent historic by-by-time victories against the Conservatives in North Shropshire, Chesham and Amersham, and Tiverton and Honiton .
Both parties deny any formal deal, but “resource targeting” effectively means that they have electoral strategies aimed at inflicting maximum damage on Sunak’s party.
The Conservatives believe they can stand up to Selby, but admit the “circumstances” of the contests sparked by Johnson and his allies leaving the Commons will make winning difficult.
A senior party official said: “All three of us will lose, there is no doubt about that.”
https://www.ft.com/content/6f2579d5-52b2-48b9-ba2c-ab1ed0e112ae
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