Title: The Impact of the House of Commons Privileges Committee Report on Boris Johnson’s Political Career
Additional Piece:
The recent House of Commons Privileges Committee report has sent shockwaves through the political landscape, with its scathing findings of lies and contempt against Boris Johnson. While such a report would typically spell the end of a political career, Johnson’s ability to play by different rules has kept the lid open on the coffin of his political ambitions.
Rishi Sunak, Chancellor of the Exchequer and a potential Conservative leadership contender, finds himself in a delicate position. He initially hesitated to endorse the report’s findings or condemn Johnson, fearing a backlash from loyal MPs and party members who still support the former Prime Minister.
Downing Street’s statement that Sunak was too busy to read the report and could not confirm Johnson’s attendance at the vote further reflects the reluctance to address the issue head-on. The goal seems to be to lessen the drama and avoid exacerbating the divisions within the Conservative Party.
Despite the damning nature of the report, there are indications that some within the party still view Johnson as a valuable campaign asset. Sir Jacob Rees-Mogg, an ultra-loyalist ally of Johnson, expects Sunak to support the former Prime Minister’s return to the list of candidates. Barring Johnson from running for a seat would be seen as mean-spirited, and Sunak is unlikely to make such a move.
However, Johnson’s political career hangs in the balance. If MPs approve the report, he will be the first Prime Minister to lie in the House of Commons, leading to the stripping of his security pass. The report’s findings and Johnson’s defiant response have drawn comparisons to former US President Donald Trump, raising questions about his ability to make a comeback.
Sir Bob Neill, Tory chairman of the Commons justice committee, believes that Johnson has become Trump in his own right and sees no path for his political revival. Sir Gary Streeter, a longtime Tory MP, echoes this sentiment, stating that Johnson is done with politics.
Yet, Johnson’s continued popularity within the party base and his reputation as an election winner may complicate matters for Sunak and the Conservative Party. Johnson could use his victim status and position as a champion of lower taxes and regulation to rally his conservative base and make life difficult for Sunak in the upcoming general election.
The question arises: if Sunak were to lose the 2024 election, would Johnson be a viable candidate to succeed him? Despite his recent fall from grace, Johnson’s ability to keep his options open and adapt to changing political dynamics cannot be understated.
In conclusion, the House of Commons Privileges Committee’s report has placed Johnson’s political career on the brink, but his ability to defy expectations and play by different rules makes predicting his future a challenging task. As the dust settles, the Conservative Party faces a crucial decision on whether to fully confront the consequences of Johnson’s actions or keep the lid open on his political ambitions.
Summary:
The House of Commons Privileges Committee report has cast doubt on Boris Johnson’s political future, with findings of lies and contempt against him. Rishi Sunak, potentially Johnson’s successor, is hesitant to endorse the report’s findings, fearing a backlash from loyal MPs and party members. Johnson’s ability to play by different rules has kept the door open to his political career, despite the damning report. The upcoming vote will be crucial in determining whether Johnson’s political career comes to an end or if he can rally support within the Conservative Party. Regardless of the outcome, Johnson’s impact on British politics is far from over.
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Rishi Sunak was said to have been “too busy” on Thursday morning to read the 108-page report that trashed Boris Johnson’s reputation. He may have enjoyed it. “They really hate each other – it’s personal,” said a minister.
The report of the House of Commons Privileges Committee, with its litany of findings of lies and contempt against Johnson, would normally suffice to complete any political career. But Johnson has always played by different rules.
Sunak treats the report like a piece of Kryptonite, initially hesitant to endorse its findings or condemn Johnson, fearing a backlash from a group of MPs and among party members still loyal to their former leader.
The privileges committee appeared on Thursday to place Johnson’s political career in a coffin, but the lid is still open. Sunak, so far at least, seems very reluctant to try to shut it down.
Downing Street said not only was Sunak preoccupied with other business on Thursday, he could not even say whether the Prime Minister would attend Monday’s House of Commons vote on whether to approve the report.
Tellingly, Tory MPs can also ignore it, as the whips on Monday grant ‘ballots’ – permission to walk away from the Commons – to any Tory who agrees to come out and campaign in one of the seats facing a by-election. The goal is to lessen the drama.
The Tory HQ declined to say on Thursday whether Johnson would be banned from running as a Tory candidate in the future. “He’s not on the candidate list – we’ll cross that bridge when we get there,” an official said.
Johnson’s ultra-loyalist Sir Jacob Rees-Mogg said he expected Sunak to recognize his predecessor as a “huge campaign asset” in the general election campaign and would support his return to the list of candidates.
Barring Johnson from running for a seat “would look very mean-spirited, and one thing we know about Rishi Sunak – I’m not his biggest fan, but – he’s not mean-spirited,” Rees-Mogg said. .
On the face of it, Johnson’s political career is set to be over by Thursday’s report, although the former prime minister insisted he had only quit as an MP ‘for now’ .
If MPs approve the report on Monday, he will be the first Prime Minister to lie in the House of Commons and he will have his security pass – normally given to former MPs – stripped.
“I don’t see how he can come back from this,” said Sir Bob Neill, Tory chairman of the Commons justice committee, lamenting how Johnson left Parliament last week with a tirade against Tory MPs on the committee. “He seems to have become Trump in his own right.”
Sir Gary Streeter, a longtime Tory MP, simply said: ‘He’s done with politics, period.
Sunak, for all his personal animosity toward Johnson, hopes his party and the country will come to that conclusion as well.
But Johnson, even in this moment of disgrace, still poses a threat to Sunak at a time when the prime minister faces a host of other issues, including rising mortgage rates and stubbornly high inflation.
On Monday, Tory divisions will be exposed again when MPs vote on the report, fueling claims by Labor leader Sir Keir Starmer that the party is too self-centered to focus on the issues facing the country.
Nadine Dorries, a Johnson ally who is delaying her threat to step down as an MP, said: ‘Any Tory who votes for this report is fundamentally not a Tory and will be held accountable by members and the public. Deselection may follow. It is serious.”
Even among some moderate Tory MPs there was a feeling the seven-member cross-party committee had gone a bit too far in saying that Johnson – if he had still been an MP – should have been suspended from the Commons for 90 days.
A Tory MP said: ‘The length of the potential ban is surprisingly long so I think it will get Boris a lot of sympathy. I know a lot of members are divided on this [the vote on the report] Already.” Johnson’s strong support among the party base is a factor giving some of his colleagues pause to think before backing the committee’s verdict.
Those close to the committee say the suspension might have looked more like 20 days if Johnson had not made matters worse by criticizing its work and accusing MPs writing the report of being involved in a “political stunt”.
The report said Johnson was “complicit” in a campaign of abuse and intimidation, with committee members to be given extra security. “He’s behaving like a Trump bookseller,” said Angela Rayner, deputy leader of the Labor Party.
A committee member said, “It was horrible. Finding yourself in the eye of the storm on a daily basis, with people sending disturbed or deranged messages, doesn’t make things very pleasant.
Still, it’s easy to see how Johnson will seek to assert that some MPs share his view that he’s been treated unfairly by an ‘establishment’ that still worries about his role in delivering Brexit.
Newspaper columns will inevitably follow, with Johnson portraying himself as a victim of a seam and making life as difficult as possible for Sunak ahead of the general election due next year.
Casting himself as a proven election winner and a champion of lower taxes and regulation – policies he failed to implement when he was prime minister with an 80-seat majority – his message could resonate with the conservative base, especially when amplified by friendly newspapers.
“I don’t think there is any chance he will stand in the next election,” a minister said.
But if Johnson put his name forward as a potential nominee, there would be a big question mark over whether Sunak and the party machine would block him, sparking more conservative unrest.
If Sunak lost the 2024 election, would Johnson, if he returned to parliament, be a viable candidate to succeed him? “You wouldn’t bet against him,” said a senior Tory MP. Johnson’s game is always to keep his options open.
Johnson’s hero, Winston Churchill, served six years as leader of the Conservative opposition from 1945 to 1951, but the parallels are not exact. Churchill has just won the Second World War, while Johnson has just been ejected from the House of Commons in ignominy.
https://www.ft.com/content/b7176f37-6a6c-48ac-a9ec-719aebaa55c2
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