Title: Global Stock Markets Experience Losses Amid Interest Rate Decisions and Fed Hearings
Introduction:
The main world stock markets faced losses on Monday due to upcoming interest rate decisions in England and Brazil, as well as Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair’s participation in Congressional hearings. The US stock markets were closed for the Juneteenth holiday. Market attention has shifted to the speeches of US BC leaders in the coming days, following the Fed’s decision to halt the tightening cycle. The European Central Bank raised interest rates last week, and the Bank of England is expected to follow suit with a similar increase. In Brazil, the focus is on the monetary policy decision of the Central Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee (Copom).
US Markets:
– US indices futures traded slightly lower, with spot markets closed for the holiday.
– Investors are looking for clues about the next steps of the Fed following Chair Powell’s hawkish speech last week.
– Real estate sector and Purchasing Managers’ Indices (PMIs) data may indicate a slowdown in the US economy.
Asian Markets:
– Asian markets closed lower ahead of China’s central bank’s monetary policy decision.
– The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) is expected to cut its benchmark lending rates to support the economy.
– Concerns about debt and capital flight may limit measures aimed at supporting private and consumer sectors.
European Markets:
– European markets declined, primarily due to concerns about the economic outlook.
– Chemical and construction stocks performed poorly, while bank stocks stood out.
– Yields on 2-year UK government bonds reached a 15-year high.
Raw Materials:
– Oil prices receded due to uncertainties about growth in China.
– Major banks cut their GDP growth forecasts for China, signaling a faltering recovery.
– Iron ore prices in China were slightly lower.
Bitcoin:
– Bitcoin’s value decreased to $26,406.00.
Upcoming Events:
– The monetary policy decision of the Copom in Brazil is highly anticipated, with expectations of keeping the Selic rate at 13.75%.
– US indicators will provide insights into the real estate sector and PMIs for the industrial and service sectors.
– Fed Chair Powell will deliver speeches before Congress on Wednesday and Thursday.
– The European Central Bank and Bank of England will make interest rate decisions, with expectations of a new increase for both.
Brazilian Politics:
– The fiscal framework project is under review in the Economic Affairs Commission (CAE).
– If the CAE approves the project on Tuesday, it can be voted on in plenary the same day.
– Congress is expected to move forward with the final text of the tax reform once the framework is defined.
Notable News:
– The BNDES aims to resume international funding, according to the Director of Planning.
– Over 60% of the government’s resources for buying discount cars have already been used.
– The TSE begins the trial this week that could disqualify former President Bolsonaro.
Corporate News:
– JBS will invest R$800 million in its Friboi unit, tripling its production capacity.
– Copasa approved the payment of interest on equity for the 2nd quarter of 2023.
Summary:
Global stock markets experienced losses as attention turned to interest rate decisions in England and Brazil, and Fed Chair Powell’s hearings. The US stock markets were closed for the Juneteenth holiday. Investors analyzed US BC leaders’ speeches for clues about the future steps of the monetary authority. The European Central Bank raised interest rates, and the Bank of England is expected to do the same. Brazil focused on the Copom’s monetary policy decision and the fiscal framework project. The TSE began the trial that could disqualify former President Bolsonaro. JBS announced a significant investment, and Copasa approved interest payments.
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The session this Monday (19) is mostly one of losses for the main world stock markets, at the beginning of a week that will be marked by interest rate decisions in England and Brazil, while the president of the Federal Reserve (Fed) participates in two hearings in the US Congress.
The US stock markets will be closed in today’s session (19) due to Juneteenth, a date that symbolizes the end of slavery in the United States and that since 2021 has been a national holiday. After the Fed halted the tightening cycle at last week’s meeting, attention turned to US BC leaders’ speeches, scheduled for the next few days.
Last week, the European Central Bank raised interest rates by another 25 basis points, indicating that the tightening cycle is not over yet. Next Thursday it is the turn of the Central Bank of England (BoE) to make its decision and the expectation is also of a new increase, of the same magnitude, which would raise the rate from the current 4.50% to 4.75%.
In Brazil, attention turns to the monetary policy decision of the Central Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee (Copom). The market is unanimous in betting that the Selic will remain at 13.75%, the level it has been at since September of last year, at the meeting that begins next Tuesday (20) and ends on Wednesday (21).
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In the political sphere, the fiscal framework project is under review by the Economic Affairs Commission (CAE), which is analyzing possible modifications. The president of the house, Rodrigo Pacheco, reported that if the CAE approves the project on Tuesday, the issue can be voted on in plenary that same day. Once the framework is defined, Congress tends to move forward with the final text of the tax reform, with promises of approval in July.
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1. World Scholarships
USA
US indices futures were trading slightly lower on Monday morning, when spot markets for US stocks and bonds are closed for the June 16 holiday.
after the speech hawkish (tough, showing concern about inflation) from Powell last Wednesday (14), shortly after the Fed’s decision to maintain interest rates, investors are looking for clues about the next steps of the monetary authority. According to the projections of the Central Bank of the United States, there would still be room for two more hikes at the end of this year.
The US indicators agenda also brings a series of data from the real estate sector and Purchasing Managers’ Indices (PMI’s) for the industrial and service sectors, which may bring new signs of a slowdown in the US economy.
See how the futures markets performed:
- Dow Jones Futures (US), -0.10%
- S&P 500 Futures (US), -0.03%
- Nasdaq Futures (US), -0.01%
Asia
Asian markets closed lower today ahead of China’s central bank’s monetary policy decision on Tuesday.
The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) is expected to cut its key benchmark lending rates on Tuesday, following a similar cut in medium-term policy lending last week to underpin a recovery. unstable economy.
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The sources told Reuters that China will implement more stimulus for its slowing economy this year, but concerns about debt and capital flight will keep measures aimed at supporting sluggish demand in the private and consumer sectors.
- Shanghai SE (China), -0.54%
- Nikkei (Japan), -1.00%
- Hang Seng Index (Hong Kong), -0.64%
- Kospi (South Korea), -0.62%
- ASX 200 (Australia), +0.60%
Europe
European markets are in decline, and investors remain concerned about the economic outlook.
Chemical and construction stocks are the biggest negatives in Europe, while bank stocks stand out at the opposite end.
Yields on 2-year UK government bonds hit a 15-year high on Monday.
- FTSE 100 (UK), -0.44%
- DAX (Germany), -0.59%
- CAC 40 (France), -0.64%
- FTSE MIB (Italy), -0.28%
- STOXX 600, -0.61%
raw Materials
Oil prices recede as uncertainties about growth in China weigh on markets. Several major banks cut their forecasts for China’s 2023 gross domestic product (GDP) growth after data from May last week showed the post-Covid recovery in the world’s second-largest economy was faltering.
Iron ore prices in China were slightly lower.
- WTI oil, -0.72%, at $71.26 a barrel
- Brent crude, -0.54%, at $76.20 a barrel
- Iron ore traded on the Dalian exchange fell a further 0.12% to 809.50 yuan, equivalent to US$113.11.
Bitcoin
- Bitcoin, -0.85% to $26,406.00 (24 hours ago)
2. Hours
This week’s agenda highlights the monetary policy decision of the Monetary Policy Committee (Copom) of the Central Bank of Brazil. The market is unanimous in betting that the Selic will remain at 13.75%, the level it has been at since September of last year, at the meeting that begins next Tuesday (20) and ends on Wednesday (21).
The US indicators agenda also brings a series of data from the real estate sector and Purchasing Managers’ Indices (PMI’s) for the industrial and service sectors, which may bring new signs of a slowdown in the US economy.
Also noteworthy are the speeches by the Fed Chairman, Jerome Powell, who will appear before Congress twice, on Wednesday (28) and Thursday (29).
Copom decision, fiscal framework in the Senate and Powell’s speech: what to follow this week
Last week, the European Central Bank raised interest rates by another 25 basis points, indicating that the tightening cycle is not over yet. Next Thursday it is the turn of the Central Bank of England (BoE) to make its decision and the expectation is also of a new increase, of the same magnitude, which would raise the rate from the current 4.50% to 4.75%.
Brazil
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8:25 a.m.: Focus Bulletin
2:30 p.m.: President Lula meets with the Minister of Finance, Fernando Haddad
15:00: Trade balance (weekly)
3. Economic news
“The main effort of the BNDES is to resume international funding,” says Nelson Barbosa
The Director of Planning of the National Bank for Economic and Social Development (BNDES), Nelson Barbosa, said in an interview with GloboNews that the main effort of development banks is to recover international financing.
According to him, various institutions, such as the Brics bank, the Inter-American Development Bank (IDB) and the China Development Bank, even offered resources to the BNDES during the Bolsonaro administration, but they were not accepted.
More than 60% of the Government’s resources to buy discount cars have already ended
The car sales stimulus program has already consumed more than 60% of the resources offered by the federal government in tax credits, just under two weeks after its official launch. According to the Ministry of Development, Industry and Commerce (MDIC), from June 5 to Saturday, June 17, R$ 300 million of the R$ 500 million allocated to the stimulus tax credit program for the automotive industry were consumed. The data was published by CNN Brazil and confirmed by Estadão.
4. Political news
TSE begins trial this week that could disqualify Bolsonaro
The Superior Electoral Tribunal (TSE) must begin on Thursday (22) the trial that could disqualify former President Jair Bolsonaro.
The former president is the subject of a lawsuit in which the PDT accuses him of abuse of political power and improper use of the media for a meeting with ambassadors at the Palácio da Alvorada, in July 2022, in which he attacked the system electoral. .
5. Corporate Radar
JBS (JBSS3)
JBS announced that it will invest R$ 800 million in its Friboi unit in Diamantino (MT), which will allow it to triple the production capacity at the site. The resources will be applied to the recovery and modernization of the factory, partially affected by a fire on the 11th. With the investment, the Diamantino unit will become Friboi’s largest in the country, according to a company statement.
The announcement of the investment was made on Saturday (17) by the general director of JBS in Brazil, Gilberto Xandó, and by the president of Friboi, Renato Costa, during a meeting with local authorities and with the Minister of Agriculture, Carlos Fávaro, who was visiting the unit.
Cup (CSMG3)
Companhia de Saneamento de Minas Gerais – Copasa (CSMG3) approved the payment of interest on equity (JCP) for the 2nd quarter of 2023 (2Q23), in the gross amount of R$ 128.5 million, equivalent to R$ 0, 3389170187 per share.
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The cut-off date is June 21, 2023. Payment will be August 14, 2023.
(With Estadão, Reuters and Agência Brasil)
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