Everyday smart watches are extremely precise to detect viral infection long before symptoms appear; Now, research shows how they could help stop a pandemic before it begins.
The early detection of the disease is critical to prevent its spread, whether COVID-19, influenza or common cold. However, many diseases are more contagious before people know they are sick. The investigation shows that 44 percent of Covid-19 infections spread several days before the victim fell with symptoms.
Now, researchers from the University of Aalto, Stanford University and Texas A&M have published a study that models how smart watches could provide a simple and effective way to drastically minimize involuntary spread of the disease in pre-syntomatic or asymptomatic people. The research, published in the magazine PNAS NEXUS On March 4, it reveals a new powerful tool for pandemic management.
‘Unlike pandemic, we now have concrete data on how pandemics are developed and how effective are the different measures to stop the propagation. Add to this that laptop is now extremely effective when it comes to detecting the very early physiological signs of infection, and we are much better prepared, “says Märt Vesinurm, from the University of Aalto in Finland.
How an early ‘ping’ could flatten the curve
Numerous studies have demonstrated the precision of portable devices when it comes to recognizing the physiological markers of several diseases several days before the user. For example, everyday smart watches can say with a precision of 88 percent, for breathing and heart rate, skin temperature and other markers, if it is with COVID-19. And its precision increases to 90 percent precision for the flu, says Vesinurm. On average, people reduce social contact between 66 and 90 percent from the point where they realize that they are sick, even when they are not in a pandemic situation.
‘Even at the lower end of compliance, if people receive and act on an earlier warning by autoislado, the impact is significant. Even only a 66-75 percent reduction in social contacts shortly after detection by smart watches, taking into account that this is at the same time with what it would normally do if it had cold symptoms, it can lead to a 40-65 percent decrease in the transmission of the disease compared to someone isolating the appearance of symptoms, “says Vesinurm.
In particular, research shows that greater fulfillment, such as that observed in a pandemic situation, could effectively stop a dry disease. So, could smart watches help us manage the potential epidemic of H5N1 (aviar flu)?
“I see no reason why I don’t,” says Vesinurm. “As we collect more specific data on how different diseases affect these measurements, there is no reason for us not to distinguish between diseases, from avian flu and HIV to the common cold, especially when used together with advanced automatic learning methods and other user data.”
Towards smarter pandemic policies
The team of researchers is the first to take data from the real world of numerous epidemiological, biological and behavioral studies reviewed by peers, which unite them to mathematically model how infection spreads at the population level. Through this powerful combination of data and technology, Vesinurm foresees a future in which smart watches change the way we treat pandemics, both individual and politics.
‘People are accustomed to portable devices and they are likely to trust them. While they are not yet diagnoses, they could help make unpopular approaches such as masks, blockages and more specific invasive tests and less a blunt instrument, “he says. An early warning of their smart watch would be the signal to take other actions, such as doing a PCR test, using a mask or” not visiting its grandmother. “The action would depend on the social context at that time and the evaluation of the risk of an individual.
Having this information not only allows people to make decisions that maintain their loved ones or the safe community, but also gives decision makers a powerful tool.
“It could be that governments consider more profitable in a pandemic situation to provide each person who loves a smart watch, although, of course, this comes with their own ethical considerations,” says Vesinurm. “Anyway, with early detection literally at our hand, I see many reasons to wait.”