Title: The Latest Snapshot of Spanish Politics: Shifting Alliances and the Rise of the Hard Right
Introduction:
In the current political landscape of Spain, the re-election of Pedro Sánchez and his left-wing coalition or the potential pact between the conservatives and the hard right are the choices Spaniards are facing. As the opposition People’s Party (PP) takes the lead in most polls, it is likely that they will not secure an outright majority. This means that the PP’s leader, Alberto Núñez Feijóo, may need the support of the Voice Party to form a government, which would mark the hard right’s entry into Spanish politics since the country transitioned to democracy in 1975. In the event of a conservative victory, Spain would join the list of European countries that have shifted to the right, such as Italy, Greece, Sweden, and Finland.
The Divide between the Left and the Right:
Alberto Núñez Feijóo’s campaign promises competence and “dignity” in government, as well as the repealing or amending of laws relating to transgender rights, euthanasia, and the legacy of Spain’s civil war. Feijóo identifies himself as a moderate but forming an alliance with the far-right Vox party would raise concerns of radicalism. Vox, led by Santiago Abascal, is known for its skepticism towards climate change, its hostility towards immigration, and its desire to repeal legislation protecting LGBT+ rights.
On the other hand, Pedro Sánchez, leading a Socialist-led coalition, faces the challenges of being the underdog since his defeat in local elections in May. However, as he cast his vote on election day, he expressed optimism, saying, “I’ve got good vibes.” Sánchez warned that if the PP and Vox were to come into power, Spain would regress from 2023 to “1973”. He cautioned against the PP adopting Vox’s policies and ideology, emphasizing that it would be more dangerous than Vox itself.
The Uncertain Outcome:
According to El País simulations, Sánchez only has a 15-16% chance of securing another term. The simulations also indicate a 55% likelihood of a PP-Vox coalition forming, but the fragmented nature of Spain’s regional parties could prevent either the left or right blocs from attaining the required absolute majority of 176 seats in the 350-seat congress. This would potentially lead to a situation where new elections would be required, just as it happened in 2015-16 and 2019.
Key Issues and Strategies:
Sánchez aimed to fight the election on two fronts: the economy and his legislative achievements. The Spanish economy has relatively low inflation and a high employment rate, which the prime minister highlighted. Additionally, his accomplishments include pension reforms, addressing temporary work contracts, regulating housing rents, and improving access to abortions. However, the opposition focused on Sánchez’s leadership style and the perceived negative consequences of the political alliances he established to pass laws.
Feijóo heavily criticized Sánchez’s alleged “lies,” particularly his promises not to work with certain political parties whose votes he ultimately relied on to push his legislative agenda. The most damaging blow to Sánchez’s campaign was his association with the radical left-wing Podemos party, with which he formed a coalition government in 2019. The mishandling of a sexual consent law by Podemos resulted in reduced prison sentences for over a thousand convicted sex offenders, providing ammunition for Feijóo’s attacks.
The Polarized Political Landscape:
The current election campaign has cast a spotlight on the extreme polarization of Spanish politics. Both sides trade accusations of lies, and the language used by both the left and the right has lost its meaning, creating a crisis of trust in political discourse. Feijóo’s campaign centered on portraying the current government as one of deception and portraying himself as a source of stability and tranquility.
Moreover, recent alliances formed between the PP and Vox at the municipal and regional levels further underpinned Sánchez’s warnings about the potential consequences of a conservative victory. These alliances resulted in the elimination of environmental departments, the reversal of equality initiatives, and the banning of LGBT+ flags on public buildings. Feijóo faced criticism during the final days of the campaign for skipping a debate with Sánchez and making false claims about the PP’s pension policies during his time in government.
Conclusion:
As Spain heads to the polls, the outcome remains uncertain, with the possibility of a PP victory and a potential coalition with Vox. The election campaign has highlighted the deep divisions within Spanish society and the growing influence of the hard right. Pedro Sánchez and his left-wing coalition face an uphill battle against an opposition that has capitalized on concerns over his leadership and political alliances. As the election results are announced, the implications for Spanish politics could have reverberations throughout Europe.
Summary:
Spain’s general election presents a choice between re-electing Pedro Sánchez and his left-wing alliance or allowing the conservatives to form a potential pact with the hard right. While polls suggest the opposition People’s Party may win, an outright majority is unlikely. This could result in the hard right entering the Spanish government for the first time since the country’s transition to democracy in 1975. A conservative victory would align Spain with other European countries that have shifted to the right. Alberto Núñez Feijóo, the leader of the PP, seeks competence and dignity in government, while the far-right Vox party pushes for the repeal of laws protecting transgender rights and LGBT+ rights. Sánchez, on the other hand, warns against the dangers of the PP embracing Vox’s policies. The election outcome is uncertain, and the fragmented nature of regional parties could lead to a hung parliament and the potential for new elections.
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Spaniards headed to the polls on Sunday with the choice of re-electing Pedro Sánchez and his fractured left-wing alliance or letting the conservatives reverse the prime minister’s reforms in a possible pact with the hard right.
Most polls suggest that the opposition People’s Party will win the early general election, but will not secure an outright majority. Alberto Núñez Feijóo, the leader of the PP, will probably need the support of the Voice Party to take office, which means the hard right could enter government for the first time since Spain returned to democracy after the death of dictator Francisco Franco in 1975.
A Conservative victory would make Spain the latest European country to shift to the right, joining Italy – whose Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni appeared via video link at a Vox rally this month – as well as Greece, Sweden and Finland.
Feijóo pledged to bring competence and “dignity” to government, restore trust in institutions, and repeal or amend laws that enshrine transgender rights, decriminalize euthanasia, and aim to address the legacy of Spain’s civil war.
He describes himself as a moderate, but an alliance with Vox would bring claims of radicalism. The far-right party led by Santiago Abascal is skeptical of climate change, hostile to immigration and wants to repeal a law that cements LGBT+ rights.
Sánchez, who leads a Socialist-led coalition, has been the underdog since being defeated in local elections in May. But as he became the first leader to vote on Sunday, he said: “I’ve got good vibes.”
He warned that the PP and Vox would bring the country back from 2023 to “1973”. In an interview with the newspaper El País, he said: “There is something much more dangerous than Vox, and that is having a PP who assumes the policies and Vox poses.”
Sánchez only has a 15-16% chance of getting another term, according to simulations by El País. There is a 55% chance of a PP-Vox coalition, but it is possible that Spain’s cluster of smaller regional parties will mean that neither the right nor left blocs reach the 176-seat absolute majority in the 350-seat congress. This would open the door to new elections, as happened in 2015-16 and 2019.
The prime minister wanted to fight the election on two fronts: the economy, which has headline inflation of just 1.9% and a high employment rate by Spanish standards; and its legislative achievements, which include reforms to increase pensions, end the abuse of temporary work contracts, regulate housing rents and improve access to abortions.
But it is dragging on because the PP campaigned on the prime minister’s personality and the “Frankenstein” political alliances he made to pass laws.
The outcome will depend on how many disgruntled socialist voters the PP can woo, how many right-wing voters it can get out of Vox, and whether Sánchez can energize left-wing voters with his warnings about ultraconservatives.
Pollsters predict a high turnout of more than 24 million voters. Although record numbers voted by mail from the beach because Sánchez called the election over the holiday season, long lines are expected before polls close at 8 p.m. Sunday.
Feijóo launched some clear ideas such as reducing income taxes, reducing the size of government and slowing down the transition to more green energy. But his campaign was mostly negative and revolved around the goal of ending “Sanchismo“, a political credo which he defined as a “sum of lies, manipulation and wickedness”.
Lorenzo Bernaldo de Quirós, president of Freemarket, a Madrid-based consultancy, said: “Elections are not won by the opposition. They are lost by the government. Feijóo’s position has been that the government has done wrong and that it should simply avoid making mistakes and be a force of tranquility.
Feijóo’s hammering of a message about Sánchez’s “lies” hurt the prime minister. Most damaging were Sánchez’s promises not to work with political parties whose votes he ended up relying on to pass laws.
A controversial ally is the radical left-wing Podemos party with which he formed a volatile coalition in 2019 – the first such government alliance in modern Spain. Podemos took responsibility for a botched sexual consent law that ended up reducing prison sentences by more than 1,000 convicted sex offenders.
When Feijóo attacked Sánchez over the law during the couple’s only election debate, the prime minister lost his temper and, experts say, the contest.
The Prime Minister was also hurt by his confidence in the parliamentary votes of EH Bildu, a Basque separatist party led by a convicted member of the disbanded Eta terror group. He has also been criticized for courting Catalan separatists by pardoning nine jailed leaders in a 2017 unconstitutional referendum.
In recent weeks, government pacts between the PP and Vox at the municipal and regional levels have highlighted some of Sánchez’s warnings. Both parties have eliminated environmental departments, scrapped equality initiatives and banned LGBT+ flags on public buildings.
In the final days of the campaign, Feijóo was criticized for refusing to participate in a second debate with Sánchez and had to cut the campaign short due to back pain. He was also caught falsely claiming that the PP had always increased pensions in line with inflation when he was in government.
Máriam Martínez-Bascuñán, a political scientist at the Autonomous University of Madrid, said the campaign had taken Spain’s political polarization to new levels.
“One of the things that struck me the most is that both sides use the same language,” she said.
“The word lie no longer means anything. There is a confrontation where they both accuse each other of lying. We have a problem because they have emptied these words of their meaning.
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