STRATEGY GUIDE: What are the possible race strategies for the 2023 Monaco Grand Prix?

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But there is still a decision to be made on which tire to start with, and Pirelli sees the medium as the best option for those at the front of the field. This is because the soft is suffering from thermal degradation at the rear axle and also graininess at the front, making it difficult for drivers to handle.

While it’s still nearly impossible to make a move on a car that’s having trouble with its tires, there’s no need to add the extra risk if you start in a position you’re happy with, so favorites are likely to go medium for his increased longevity and stable behaviour, before switching to the hard compound between lap 20 and lap 25.

However, even that pit window is very flexible, because the hard tire can go the full distance of the race with only one possible degradation in the closing stages, meaning that a driver could choose to pit as soon as possible. end of the first lap if you have the chance. arises

At the same time, the drivers can drive the pace so strongly in Monaco that they could extend the stint to lap 40; The main thing strategists will be looking for is clear air to make sure they don’t fall behind and take chances. losing a place

How about a different option for the top 10?

There is still a slight advantage to the soft compound if you want to be aggressive at the start to try and regain a position or two, although it is very difficult to do so due to the short run to Turn 1 at Sainte Devote and the tight nature of the circuit.

For example, someone like Fernando Alonso in second might see that his only chance to win comes from a better advantage in launch and tire compound, because that would put him in the lead. From there, he was able to control the pace to manage tire degradation in the first stint to protect the soft tires from him.

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Of course, Red Bull could choose to do the same with Max Verstappen given the likelihood of him retaining the lead, but it adds a variable that it is less likely to want from pole position, while Esteban Ocon’s presence in third place could actually giving Verstappen and Alonso a bit of breathing room depending on how fast they push early on.

The softs should be good for 15-20 laps at normal pace before pitting for the hard compound, but as explained in the previous section, it’s a wide pit window given the longevity of the hard tyre, so which depending on the drivers’ ability to manage the pace could extend closer to lap 30.

What are the options for the lower half of the field?

That wide pit window could come into play for Sergio Perez, who is starting out of position in last place after his crash in Q1. Perez is more likely to mount the soft or medium tire and make his pit stop at the end of the first lap, provided there is no safety car interruption, mount the hard compound and emerge into clear air to run at his own pace . .

In theory, Red Bull should be fast enough to catch up to the back of the field before too many other pit stops have been made, allowing it to gain positions.

But the reverse option would be to start on the hard compound with nothing to lose and run as long as possible in the hope that there will be a Safety Car interruption or even a red flag period after other cars have already pitted. stops and emerges further back in the field.

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This was the approach taken by Ocon and Nico Hulkenberg in Baku two races ago, although ultimately there was no incident that allowed their gamble to pay off. A red flag in Monaco is more likely, however, due to the chances of track blockage, and in that scenario anyone who started on hard tires and hasn’t yet made a pit stop could change compounds. for free without wasting time. or positions.

If it is a Safety Car or Virtual Safety Car that the drivers are pitting under, then the pit stop loss time is reduced to around 12 seconds from nearly 20 amid green flag conditions.

Wait, but what’s the weather like?

There is a small chance of rain which could also complicate the race. Monaco has seen some pretty heavy downpours in the past, particularly before last year’s race, and there could also be some downpours in the area on Sunday.

The official risk is 20% and it is lower than at some stages earlier this week, but it would create an exciting challenge as last year’s strategic choices highlighted. On that occasion, Ferrari was unable to convert Charles Leclerc’s pole position due to him mistaking his changes from wet to intermediate and then from intermediate to slicks.

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The new fully wet tyre, which does not require tire covers, is used in the most extreme cases and Pirelli estimates that the crossover point between fully wet and intermediate tires is 150% of normal lap time, while intermediates and slicks are closer to the 112% range.

If it stays dry, it’s likely to be a warm race with temperatures in the 20-20 degree Celsius, ensuring that the drivers will have to take a bit more care of the softer compounds.