On Monday evening, Rishi Sunak will welcome Tory MPs to Downing Street for a morale-boosting garden party filled with pies from his constituency. Although the evening is billed as a post-coronation celebration, the government hopes it will also soothe spirits chilled by the party’s disastrous performance in last week’s local elections.
Conservative Chairman Greg Hands has been in ‘outreach’ mode in the aftermath, seeking to silence the recriminations being exchanged from the Tories eclipsed their worst expectationslosing 1,050 councilors and ceding control of 50 councils in England.
While party leaders insist they listen to disgruntled MPs, Sunak and his officials are clear that the best path to victory in the general election is to stick to his strategy of “continuing to deliver his five promisesto halve inflation, grow the economy, reduce the debt, reduce the NHS waiting list and stop the boats.
Tory officials say progress on those pledges will show the party can lead the country effectively after the chaos of the Johnson and Truss eras and help win back traditional Labor voters who switched sides in the 2019 election but fear d to have retreated.
Sunak “says we need time to deliver – and we have a decent amount of time before the next election,” said an ally of the prime minister.
However, many in his party want him to outline a bigger, bolder vision to capture voters’ imaginations — and to radically improve the party’s campaign machine.
A cabinet minister said the local Conservative election campaign – launched by Sunak in the West Midlands with no media presence – had been “lackluster”.
On Wednesday, Hands met Tory MPs representing the most marginal constituencies to discuss the party’s so-called ’80-20′ strategy, under which it aims to defend 80 high-risk seats and win 20 from the opposition. .
Later that day he faced a barrage of complaints to the 1922 committee of backbenchers, including rebukes that too few ministers helped solicit on the ground in local elections – an accusation disputed by Number 10 officials, who point out that more than 100 front-line visits had taken place — and that insufficient resources had been deployed at the regional level.
CCHQ is now hiring new campaign managers and digital specialists to prepare for the general election, scheduled for next year, and has accelerated the pace of candidate selection.
Despite mounting backbench pressure on Sunak to change course, Tory officials say the PM’s five priority commitments reflect the policy areas that matter most to voters – a claim confirmed by The YouGov Tracker of the most important problems facing the country. However, their deliverability seems more fragile than during their first production at the beginning of the year.
Sunak’s three economic pledges – on inflation, growth and public debt – were all designed to be easily achievable, although the growth pledge looked risky in January when wholesale gas prices were lower. double current levels, and which they thought could hit household incomes hard and push the economy into recession.
The improving outlook for energy prices, coupled with stronger-than-expected consumer and business confidence resilience, led most forecasters to drop forecasts of economic contraction. Andrew Bailey, Governor of the Bank of England, said he now expects “modest but positive growth” this year. It would fulfill Sunak’s promise to grow the economy, although few people would feel significantly better off.
The problem with higher growth for the Prime Minister is that the BoE thinks it will come with higher inflation. In his latest forecastthe BoE said there was a 50% chance that inflation would be below 5.28% in the final quarter of this year, barely meeting Sunak’s pledge to cut it in half.
The third goal, on debt, hasn’t changed since the March budget, but Treasury insiders admit it’s not a commitment that resonates with the public.
On Sunak’s sweeping promise that waiting lists for NHS treatment will ‘fall and people will get the care they need faster’, the party will have to uphold a record in which standards of treatment have been violated by ever widening margins during their 13- year stewardship. The latest NHS performance data, released on Thursday, showed a record 7.3 million people awaiting treatment.
There are some signs of progress. Although attention has focused on the fact that more than 10,000 people are still waiting more than 18 months for treatment, more than 90% of this cohort has now been seen.
Tim Gardner, deputy director of policy at the Health Foundation, a research organization, said the size of waiting lists was “relatively stable, despite a brutal winter and recent industrial action”.
However, he stressed that a promised plan to address chronic staff shortages and improve retention was now long overdue. Other health experts warn that tighter funding for the service is making the challenge of eliminating waiting lists more difficult.
Sunak’s latest pledge—stopping “the boats”—is perhaps the toughest to keep. More than 6,690 asylum seekers have arrived in the UK via small boats so far this year, with the total recorded last month exceeding that of April last year, according to Migration Watch UK. Rwanda’s government policy of deportation — a pillar of its plan to deter asylum seekers — also faces delays due to legal actions.
Difficulties in delivering on the pledges are fueling calls from anxious MPs for Sunak to rethink his strategy.
In the meantime, other challenges loom. Tory ministers and aides are monitoring discontent simmering among backbench MPs over a variety of issues including Brexit, housing and immigration.
Movements among Conservative right-wing figures to band together and reshape the party agenda will also be watched closely by Downing Street. Next week a national conservatism-themed conference, at which several ministers are speaking, is taking place in central London, while on Saturday a separate conference called by allies of Boris Johnson is taking place in Bournemouth.
A Conservative official noted that Sunak’s personal leadership should give MPs cause for optimism: “MPs went door to door during locals; they have voter feedback. No one is saying they’re not voting Conservative because of Rishi Sunak, like they did last year with Boris. It’s the contrary. Rishi is our greatest asset.
But another former minister is more pessimistic. “There is no alternative to the current leadership or the five priorities. Most colleagues recognize this, but not with pleasure. There is a feeling of resigned despair.
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