The UK’s emerging relationship with the US is characterized by a new realism, as the UK recognizes that its current clout on the world stage is much less than what it once had. Additionally, the United States is becoming increasingly unpredictable under President Biden, and it is unclear how future presidents will position their country in the world. Rishi Sunak’s recent visit to the United States was successful because he avoided the temptation to petition for a quick trade deal and instead reaffirmed the UK’s support for Ukraine, emphasizing that this is a domain where transatlantic relations are strong.
Sunak also announced that the UK would convene and lead a summit on AI regulation. Furthermore, the recent “update” of the Integrated Review, a statement on UK foreign policy, reflects a new maturity in UK foreign policy as it recognizes that the UK desires to trade with China and recognize potential threats. However, all of this careful negotiation is at the mercy of US policy, which is becoming increasingly bifurcated under President Biden, and future presidents could enact a drastic shift in policy.
Additional piece:
In recent years, it has become increasingly harder for the UK prime ministers to get their trips to the US right. This is because the special relationship between the two countries has become more complex. The phrase “special relationship” has been thrown around for decades. However, the UK’s clout on the world stage has diminished while the United States is becoming increasingly unpredictable.
The most recent visit by Rishi Sunak to the United States was highly anticipated, and he was warmly welcomed. This visit demonstrated the new realism about the emerging relationship between the UK and the US. Instead of pushing for a quick trade deal, which could have potentially been humiliating, Sunak instead reaffirmed the UK’s support for Ukraine, especially in domains where transatlantic relations are strong.
Sunak also announced that the UK would lead an AI regulation summit. AI is an area where words count, and UK governments are often better with words than deeds. However, the UK government has always been interested in AI, and the country is home to Europe’s largest AI research hub. So, convening an AI regulation summit is a positive step towards more UK contributions to the global AI regulatory framework.
The Integrated Review of UK foreign policy also indicates a new maturity in UK foreign policy. The review outlines a middle ground approach that is less hostile toward Beijing than that of the United States. However, it is worth noting that all of the careful negotiation that the UK is doing is at the mercy of the US policy. The United States’ policy is so bitterly bifurcated that a change in presidency might lead to a drastic shift in policy, affecting Ukraine, NATO and other matters.
The UK can do its part to contribute to the global regulatory framework and support their allies but must understand that the United States is the dominant player. While the UK only has so much clout, it can still make significant contributions. It is essential to play a more active role in global affairs and international diplomacy. The UK can be a balancing force in the world, serving as a mediator between China and the United States or even Russia and NATO. Through careful negotiation and collaboration, the UK can navigate complex issues successfully.
According to CRS, the UK is the United States’ fourth-largest trading partner, after Canada, Mexico, and China. The trade relationship between the US and the UK is worth about $262 billion, and the US is also the largest single foreign investor in the UK. Similarly, the UK is the largest foreign investor in the US. The two countries enjoy a close trading and investment partnership, which enhances the special relationship.
Overall, the UK must continue to pivot its foreign policy in response to the evolving international environment. By embracing new forms of diplomacy, such as AI regulations and support for Ukraine, it can maintain its clout on the world stage. However, the UK cannot achieve its strategic objectives alone. It must continue to work closely with its allies, including the United States, to promote peace, security, and prosperity globally.
Summary:
Rishi Sunak’s visit to the US demonstrated a new realism about the UK’s emerging relationship with the US, recognizing that the UK has much to offer but lacks the clout it once had on the world stage. Sunak avoided the trap of petitioning for a quick trade deal and instead reaffirmed the UK’s support for Ukraine, emphasizing that this is a domain where transatlantic relations are strong. Additionally, Sunak announced that the UK would convene and lead a summit on AI regulation. The recent “update” of the Integrated Review, a statement on UK foreign policy, reflects a new maturity in UK foreign policy as it recognizes that the UK desires to trade with China and recognize potential threats. However, the UK’s influence is at the mercy of US policy, which is increasingly unpredictable, making it challenging to navigate the complex world of international diplomacy.
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The writer is director of Chatham House, a think tank
It’s never easy for a UK prime minister to get a trip to the US right. Too close – think Donald Trump holding Theresa May’s elbow – and you risk visibly recalling the ‘America’s puppet’ hoax that got a stinging sting after Tony Blair’s support for the US invasion. Iraq. Tugging on the president’s sleeve in search of attention isn’t a good impression either — think Gordon Brown in 2009, reduced to meeting Barack Obama for 15 minutes in the UN kitchens on the sidelines of the general assembly during a formal “sit down” meeting it was not forthcoming.
Humiliation or dependent complicity threatens at every turn as our political leaders pursue the “special relationship,” a phrase for decades heard more often in the leafy gardens of the British Embassy on the slopes above Washington than in the corridors of the heart of the capital. The preamble to Rishi Sunak’s visit threatened humiliation, with President Joe Biden remarking that he went to Ireland “so the British. . . he was not wrong ”with the Good Friday Agreement.
That said, the trip was a success because Sunak got two things right and avoided a pitfall. His approach reflects a major new realism about the UK’s emerging relationship with the US, one that recognizes that the UK has much to offer but lacks the clout it once had on the world stage. But looming over the relationship – and over UK foreign policy as a whole – is the profound new unpredictability of the United States and how future presidents might choose to position their country in the world.
The first major move Sunak made was to reaffirm UK support for Ukraine, emphasizing that this is a domain where transatlantic relations are strong. Ukraine cannot “win”, by any means, without the support of the United States. While the Biden administration has pledged such support, its persistence cannot be taken for granted. There are voices from both Democrats and Republicans – if stronger from the latter – questioning this priority. Biden, after all, drove the United States out of Afghanistan almost overnight, in response to public anger over the “eternal wars.”
Sunak’s second well-considered step was to announce that the UK would convene and lead a summit on AI regulation. UK governments are often better with words than deeds, but AI regulation is one area where words count.
The trap he cleverly avoided was the temptation to petition for a quick trade deal. It would have been humiliating to ask and not get it (progress was never likely) but potentially more bruising to start talks. Pro-Brexit rhetoric about the value of such a deal glosses over how harshly the US also negotiates with neighbors and close allies – ask Canada and Mexico. The chlorine chicken is the nasty-sounding symbol of the profound concessions that would be required.
Sunak’s realism about how the UK can deal with the US was also reflected in the recent “update” of the Integrated Review, a statement on UK foreign policy. Some aspects of the relationship are strong: the sharing of intelligence, above all. So is defense cooperation, although tensions in Iraq and the exit from Afghanistan have left their mark on military relations. Arguably, if China steps up pressure on Taiwan, the Integrated Review hinted at more support for the US than the UK can realistically give the Indo-Pacific. But by exposing the UK’s desire to trade with China and to recognize potential threats, the review outlined a “middle ground” approach that is less hostile toward Beijing than that of the United States. This reflects a new maturity in UK foreign policy.
Over all foreign policy in the country, however, looms the feverish state of US policy, so bitterly bifurcated that a change of president could lead to a drastic shift in policy – towards Ukraine, NATO and far beyond. And that’s without considering the Trump factor; it is truly impossible to predict what a second Trump presidency might produce, although it is hard to think that his instinctive esteem for Russian President Vladimir Putin would not manifest itself.
America’s willingness to intervene in the rest of the world has waxed and waned since the country’s inception. But he has largely accepted his role as an advocate of democratic values in the international order over the past seventy-plus years, values on which the constitution is built. It can no longer be assumed.
So Sunak has avoided the old trap of asking too much of Washington or promising far more than the UK can deliver, even if there is still a hint of it. He has laid the groundwork for a new relationship, with more definition of different interests than in the past. None of this is evidence against a radical change in US foreign policy itself. But if that happens, the cautious new clarity of Britain’s evolving transatlantic relationship – somewhat less special but also more separate – will have helped.
https://www.ft.com/content/b035c1bc-7488-4d0a-a9a2-e1bbce36c268
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