Syria’s new leader has set about consolidating control over the government since he led the offensive that toppled Bashar al-Assad’s regime in December, worrying civil and political groups who fear he may exclude outside voices from shaping the future of the shattered nation.
Ahmed al-Sharaa, the head of Islamist Hayat Tahrir al-Sham who this week appointed himself president of a transitional government, has packed the new administration with loyalists and has ordered political parties and armed factions — including his own — to disband.
Authorities have also postponed a national dialogue conference designed to help debate the country’s political path, and appear to have dispensed with a UN road map paving the way for the peaceful transition of power and inclusive political process.
Western governments have made forming an inclusive and representative government a key condition to lifting Assad-era sanctions and terrorist designations on HTS. That will be critical to Syria’s ability to rebuild the devastated state and economy after nearly 14 years of civil war.
The inclusivity of the transitional government, which the new leadership has said would rule until elections in four years, is considered a critical test of whether Sharaa will be willing to share power.
“Western governments are going to judge [Sharaa] based on the level of inclusion and credibility in the national conference,” said Malik al-Abdeh, a London-based Syrian analyst.
But Sharaa had made clear that “whoever liberates, decides”, said Abdeh. “That slogan is very clear, and we should not take it lightly.”
In his first speech addressing the public on Thursday, Sharaa said the transitional government would be tasked with building up institutions “until we reach the stage of free and impartial elections”.
He vowed to establish an inclusive political process “with no exclusion and marginalisation”.
However, no new date has been set for the national dialogue conference, which had been scheduled for January 15, but was postponed.
Before HTS’s offensive that ended the long-running civil war, Syria was for more than 50 years ruled by the repressive dictatorship of the Assad dynasty, which had little tolerance for dissent or political activity outside the ruling Ba’ath party.
Sharaa, who has also scrapped Syria’s Assad-era constitution, said the new leadership would redraft the charter and use the years up to elections to allow for credible political actors and parties.
But Ahmad Baccora, a member of the Syria’s main civil war-era political opposition body, the National Coalition of Syrian Revolution and Opposition Forces — known as the Etilaf, Arabic for “coalition” — said the new leadership was vague about their plans for the conference.
“To date, there are no clear and fixed dates . . . nor has a precise mechanism been determined for formulating the agenda, the number of attendees, or the criteria for their selection,” he said.
“The success of the Syrian national conference depends not only on its convening,” said Baccora, “but also on how comprehensive and truly representative it is of all national forces.”
Sharaa has filled the government with members of the HTS-backed administration that for years ruled the northwestern rebel enclave of Idlib, such as foreign minister Asaad al-Shaibani.
The vast majority of Syrians have celebrated the downfall of Assad and welcomed HTS, but many also remain wary about the uncertain future and economic malaise.
There is also hesitancy over the prospects of being ruled by an Islamist militant group that the US, UN and EU still designate as a terrorist group.
For now, Syrians say they are willing to be patient and judge Sharaa on his actions.
“It’s our role to support them from behind the scenes,” said Hind Kabawat, a prominent member of Syria’s civil society. “And they’re young — those are different from the dinosaur regimes” less susceptible to change, she said.
But tensions have already risen between the new administration and the traditional political opposition.
The Etilaf, formed in Qatar in 2012, received international recognition as the representative of the Syrian people from western and regional powers, and for years was central to the UN-proposed road map for transition from Assad’s rule.
But it had little credibility inside Syria, where people were disenchanted with blocs operating in exile while they suffered under the regime, and has remained marginalised since Assad’s ousting.
Sharaa asked Hadi Bahra, the head of the Etilaf, and another political opposition leader to disband during a meeting in Damascus last month, according to people familiar with the meeting. They refused.
Conversations had continued since “to ensure a smooth transition” and the Etilaf had been given “positive assurances” about political inclusivity, Baccora said.
Analysts have, however, raised concerns over the new administration’s lack of expertise and whether they can transition from ruling Idlib to the whole nation.
Sharaa “was not democratic”, said a Syrian civil society activist who lived for years under HTS rule in Idlib. “He’s speaking well, saying the right things publicly.”
But “we don’t know what will happen”, the activist added. “All the activists are saying: ‘We are willing to be patient’ . . . Then our fears will be realised, or we will see if there’s a plan” by the end of this month.
Additional reporting by Andrew England