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His guide of what the United States election means 2024 for Washington and the world
Donald Trump has triggered the first shots in what threatens to become a devastating commercial war. The tariffs of the president of the United States over Mexico, Canada and China will deliver an immediate shock to the American and world economies. They imagine decades of progress towards the economic integration that has promoted the global prosperity of us and of us. An absurd is that these measures are not caused in commercial terms; They are being used as a coercive tool to promote Trump’s domestic political agenda and extract concessions from American neighbors that may be beyond their power to give. Another is that the United States will be one of the main victims, in the damage resulting to its own economy and its position in the world.
The US president who returns has promoted several illusory explanations for his love for tariffs. He, he says, will restore the United States industrial base, will replace the income tax and pay the debt of the United States. The apparent reason for their tariffs this weekend is to stop the “great threat of illegal foreigners and mortal drugs,” including fentanyl. TriumphThe threat of sanctions is true, already caused steps from Canada and Mexico to reinforce your borders. But they would certainly have continued if the president has chosen to keep his hand. And there are practical limits for what they can do, especially in Canada, the source of only a fraction of irregular immigration or the fentanyl that crosses from Mexico.
The legal pretext for Trump’s measure is also questionable. He made use of the International Law of Emergency Economic Powers, an executive authority that allows him to respond to extraordinary economic or security threats. However, that law has not been previously used to promulgate tariffs. Courts and Congress should block them.
If they do not, the damage It will be severe. Trump rates alone will quickly feed on greater inflation in the United States and reduce growth. He justifiable reprisals will amplify the effects. Trump seems to be playing that, since their measures will hit Canada and Mexico even more, given its greatest dependence on trade than the United States, they will quickly decrease. But the president of the United States not only challenges the commercial basis of his prosperity, but also causes his pride as sovereign nations.
The unraveling of free trade chains and supply of North America accumulated for decades will give a severe blow to both US consumers and corporate America, especially oil refining, car production, pharmaceutical products and agriculture. Trump’s shares in China are less dramatic, but they seem a modest initial payment in more extensive plans to come. Together, the three countries represent almost half of the imports in the United States. The $ 100 billion estimated in additional tariffs will surely be eclipsed by the economic cost.
Damage to American diplomatic power is no less deep. Since the 1980s, both Canada and Mexico reserved decades of skepticism to make a strategic commitment to free trade with the United States, culminating in the 1994 NAFTA agreement. Economic benefits, especially for Canada, have been abundant. Both were coerced by Trump in their first term to renegotiate that agreement. That the president is now riding in rude even by the reviewed agreement, the USMCA, sends a message that cannot be trusted in the United States word. Canada and Mexico should not leave Trump movements without response, but their response must be creative, coordinated and selective. Chrystia Freeland, former Canadian finance minister who is postulated to replace Justin Trudeau as prime minister, has proposed tariffs that would affect the key constituencies that support the president of the United States, such as Elon Musk’s Tesla vehicles.
However, the commercial war is symptomatic of a major problem in Trump’s America. The president only decides what problems are important, exaggerates the diagnosis and chooses the medication. As with their attempts to impose their own priorities for dismiss federal workers and Freezing grantsThe tools are often overwhelming. Its commercial war threatens to be disastrous, but chaos will not end there.