The economic situation is at the heart of the Greek elections

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Good morning. News while you were sleeping: Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy will participate in person at the G7 here in Hiroshimaofficials have told us, in a surprise move that will ensure Russia’s war on Ukraine dominates the proceedings. Late last night the The United States and the United Kingdom have announced new sanctions against Moscow (although there were no equivalent EU measures this morning).

Today, our Athens correspondent explains why Greeks will likely have to vote twice to choose their next government, and we have a dispatch from northern Italy where climate change is wreaking havoc.

It’s the economy, stupid

When Greeks go to the polls this Sunday, it will be the first time in over a decade that the country will not be under any surveillance by its European partners. writes Eleni Varvitsioti.

Background: After years of bailouts and austerity measures following the debt crisis, Greece’s credit rating is about to reach investment grade again. But high inflation weighs on the population and the country still has one higher shares of people at risk of poverty or social exclusion.

According to the latest polls, the ruling center-right New Democracy party holds a significant lead of at least five points over the radical left Syriza. In third place is Pasok, a centre-left party.

Due to a change in electoral law under the previous government, the victor needs an unusually high percentage, more than 45 percent of the vote, to form a government. Based on the surveys, no single party will achieve itand hopes of a coalition have faded in recent days.

While the numbers could potentially add up if ND and Pasok make a deal, recent statements have made that scenario nearly impossible.

“In recent days, the Greek premier has intensified his criticism of Pasok leader Nikos Androulakis, accusing him of flirting with Syriza and calling on Pasok voters to turn against him,” said Wolfango Piccoli, co-president of the analyst firm risk. Teneo.

What makes it more difficult is that Androulakis cannot forget that the Greek secret services, under the control of Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis, last year he tried to wiretap his phone.

If a government is not formed on Sunday, the party with the most votes will get a three-day mandate to do so, which, if unsuccessful, is followed by a coup for the second- and third-best groups.

If all this fails, as planned, a second vote will be held on 2 July. But this time a different electoral system gives a bonus to the winning party. This means that the winner needs a lower percentage and ND could win more comfortably.

The deciding factor will be the economy, which according to polls is voters’ top concern in this election. Who will fare better with the high prices? And who is the best leader to ensure economic stability? This is what the Greeks will decide.

Graph of the Day: Impact Assessment

Russia he admitted “problems” with oil and gas revenues, which fell to their lowest levels in years thanks to Western sanctions. This happens despite Moscow exporting more oil in April than in any month since its full-scale invasion of Ukraine last year.

Burnt and soggy

Northern Italy’s agricultural heartland, Emilia Romagna, suffered an extreme drought last summer when its lifeline, the River Po, was reduced to a trickle.

Now, much of the region is submerged after being hit by severe flooding in recent days, writes Giuliana Ricozzi.

Context: Italy is experiencing increasingly extreme weather conditions as it feels the effects of climate change. In 2022 northern Italy suffered the worst drought in decades when lakes and rivers dried up. Meanwhile, parts of the south have been hit by flooding and landslides after excessive and unseasonable rains.

This week, between 200 and 500 mm of rain, about half the annual average, fell in just 36 hours and flooded villages and farms in the north. The soil, still dried up following the drought, was unable to absorb it.

At least 13 people have died and thousands have been evacuated. The president of Emilia Romagna, Stefano Bonaccini, estimated the damage at several billion euros. “This catastrophic event is putting a strain on the region, but we will react,” Bonaccini said.

According to the agricultural trade body Coldiretti, the floods have affected more than 5,000 agri-food companies. Livestock has been lost and thousands of hectares of vineyards and food crops have gone under water. Coldiretti warned that damages could disrupt food production worth 1.2 billion euros.

The government should allocate 30 million euros to get Emilia Romagna back on track and suspend taxes and the mortgage of flood victims.

But with scientists on the way increasingly bleak forecastsit may not be the last such event.

What to watch today

1. G7 summit kicks off in Hiroshima.

2. Czech Foreign Minister Jan Lipavský hosts his Slovak counterpart Miroslav Wlachovský in Prague.

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