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the writer is contributing columnist, based in Chicago
“Happy alcoholic holidays.” The neon sign flashes in the window of one of the numerous seasonal pop-up bars that fill the streets around Chicago’s Wrigley Field stadium. Pop-ups are having a big hit as Chicagoans prepare to celebrate the biggest alcohol holiday: New Year’s Eve.
They are heralding what could be a momentous year in the great American debate over alcohol: Alcohol does more to kill us. either keep us alive? True believers on both sides clash over planned issues. new guidelines on alcohol consumption: should Americans drastically reduce their alcohol consumption? Or is a modest amount healthier than never drinking anything?
Many younger Americans are already voting with their mocktails: The Pew Research Center found that the percentage of 18- to 34-year-olds who say they ever drink has dropped by 10 points in the last two decades, from 72 to 62 percent.
And those who say alcohol is harmful are increasingly winning the public relations battle. Gallup found that 45 percent of Americans planned to have one or two drinks a day; current US guidelinesrespectively, for women and men, it was unhealthy. This is an increase of 17 points from 2018. Among people aged 18 to 34, 65 percent say alcohol is bad for their health.
Overall, per capita pure alcohol consumption in the United States “has fallen to its lowest level since 2002, after peaking during the pandemic,” according to IWSR, the global beverage data provider. IWSR predicts US non-alcoholic market will see compound annual growth growth rate of 18 percent by volume between 2024 and 2028. “It has become the norm to have non-alcoholic beverages on the menu, and the people who drink them no longer stick out like a sore thumb,” says Carrie May, founder of an organization without for profit. Chicago AF, which promotes sober socialization.
This is perhaps less true around the time of alcoholic holidays: When I tried to order a non-alcoholic drink at a pop-up, I was offered a drink named after a children’s character, or hot chocolate.
Researchers admit that many people decide how to drink based on personal experience rather than government guidelines that have barely changed in decades. I’m teetotal now, but the guidelines are the same as when I moved to Washington DC almost 30 years ago and brought so much South African wine that I was forced to get a liquor license. I didn’t wait for new guidelines to change my habits.
But recently, policymakers around the world have taken a tougher line on alcohol. Two years ago, the World Health Organization saying no amount of alcohol was safe. Canada funded a study that found that “alcohol-related consequences” for the drinker or others were likely to be avoided only in two drinks a week or less. Still, Ottawa has not endorsed this guidance and continues to publish much higher standards for “low-risk drinking”: three drinks per day for men and two for women.
Ahead of the review of drinking guidelines in the United States, advocates of “no amount is safe” are facing off against those who say there are health benefits to drinking in moderation. Two rival groups are advising government departments that will choose the 2025-2030 guidance.
One of those groups, the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering and Medicine, found that the evidence was “imperfect,” but still concluded with “moderate certainty” that moderate drinkers had lower all-cause mortality and a lower risk of cardiovascular death than those who never drank.
An independent panel is expected to release its report soon, and lobbyists on both sides believe it can present evidence supporting sharply reduced consumer guidance. The alcohol industry is already lobbying against this. “If you throw out the science and tell consumers that there is no safe level of alcohol consumption, you run the risk of them ignoring the guidelines entirely,” Amanda Berger of the Distilled Spirits Council of the United States told me.
Drastically cut consumption patterns could also face a political backlash. Texas Republican Senator Ted Cruz criticized rumors of new limits last year, posting on X: “What’s up with liberals who want to control every damn aspect of your life? If you want us to have two beers a week, frankly, you can kiss my ass.”
Back in Wrigleyville, the neighborhood cannabis dispensary now has a long line. Americans may be drinking less, but Gallup found twice as many American adults smoke marijuana than in 2013. If it’s not alcohol, it might as well be drugs.
In any case, we shouldn’t worry about what the government thinks is best for us on New Year’s Eve. There will be plenty of time for that in dry January.