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Roula Khalaf, Editor of the FT, selects her favourite stories in this weekly newsletter.
The writer is executive director of More in Common UK
At each general election, there is a voter elevated above the others. At the 1992 election, it was “Mondeo Man”, an aspirational working-class homeowner, worried about taxes and a key demographic for both Labour and the Conservatives. Come 1997, Tony Blair coveted the vote of “Worcester Woman”, a well-to-do working class mother residing in marginal West Midlands seats. Our research suggests that “Whitby Woman” will play an outsized role in shaping the result when the country goes to the polls this time.
Of the voters who will dictate the outcome of this election, a crucial group comprises those who backed the Conservatives at the last general election but now say they don’t know how to vote. These undecided voters will make the difference between what could be a narrow Conservative loss, and a 1997-style landslide defeat.
Around 70 per cent are women. Our polling suggests that they are mostly older homeowners, did not go to university and are mostly concentrated along the east coast of England. The small towns and suburbs where they live make up seats which were quite safe for the Conservatives in 2019. Scarborough and Whitby in Yorkshire is one of them — a win here would, assuming gains of around 25 seats in Scotland in line with recent polling, hand Labour an overall majority. This constituency, containing the photogenic seaside town famous as the setting for Dracula, gives Whitby Woman her name.
Likely to be around 61, in the past Whitby Woman was a reliable Tory voter. Her instincts are aligned with a Conservative rather than Labour policy platform. But this time, disillusionment with Conservative ministers’ handling of the cost of living, frustration over failure to control immigration and doubts about Rishi Sunak personally have pushed her into the undecided column. Now the Tories need to win her back. Policies targeting these voters have already been aired — the national service plan, pensions “triple lock plus” and scrapping degree courses resonate with Whitby Woman.
Labour, meanwhile, are looking 200 miles south to Stevenage in Hertfordshire. The campaign group Labour Together has identified “Stevenage Woman” as key to their party’s fortunes. A mother in her 40s, she is disillusioned with politics. Having likely voted Conservative in 2019, she has now abandoned them. But Labour needs to spend the next five weeks convincing her that a Starmer government can actually make a difference on her top issues such as the cost of living and the NHS.
To meet the Liberal Democrats’ target voter, we travel even further south to “Waitrose Woman”, a liberal Conservative: she rather liked David Cameron but dislikes Brexit. In 2019, she held her nose and stuck with the Tories but Conservative chaos and a dislike of culture war rhetoric have led her to consider voting Lib Dem. In seats such as Godalming and Ash, these Waitrose Women could deliver 2024’s “Portillo Moment” unseating of Jeremy Hunt.
What will really make the difference is back up the east coast. If Whitby Woman abstains (as many Conservative voters did in 1997, helping Tony Blair to win big), votes Labour or for Reform UK, the Conservatives will be on course for a defeat as bad as that suffered by John Major at Blair’s hands — potentially even worse.
Do these voter archetypes really matter? Some have had more sticking power than others. Essex Man provided a platform for Conservative success in the 1980s; Workington man shaped the agenda (if not its subsequent delivery) for the levelling up promises of the 2019 election. Other voter groups — whatever happened to 2010’s “Holby City Woman”? — did not.
This year’s archetypes, the Whitby, Stevenage and Waitrose Women, won’t on their own decide the election. But they focus the minds of the competing parties and, crucially, will determine whose trust they will need to repay or win back after the result.