The old cycle of British immigration policy is breaking up

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Good morning. Earlier this week, I wrote of my surprise that the UK’s historically high levels of immigration had not yet led to the political and social backlash that followed previous peaks.

Some of you have put forward an interesting, and I think plausible, theory as to why. Some thoughts on it below.

The history of UK immigration policy is one of relative and in some cases complete openness followed by a political backlash and a sharp curtailment of people’s right to come to the UK. I wrote earlier this week that I thought this pattern was likely to continue and that the attempt by successive Conservative governments to avoid it by coupling relatively easy moves with draconian curbs on refugees and foreign student dependents would prove no more effective than a similar mix of policies by the New Labour.

Many of you thought I was missing something very important: the news!

Ultimately, the arrival of people like my great-great-great grandparents from the Russian Empire in the 19th and early 20th centuries was a big deal, culturally and socially. It changed the make-up of the country, and particularly of London’s East End and other coastal cities.

Ditto, so was the arrival of people like my grandparents from South Africa and Zimbabwe in the 1960s, my schoolmates’ grandparents from the Indian subcontinent, and people from the former Eastern Bloc in the 2000s.

These have been major cultural shifts. They meant a lot in terms of food available in shops, local customs, languages ​​spoken in major cities, and so on. Unsurprisingly, I think these have been positive changes over the long run, but they certainly have been of great significance.

Is today’s migration so significant? Well, a look at data from the Office for National Statistics’ annual population survey, analyzed last year by the Oxford University Migration Observatorysuggests maybe not.

In terms of what it means to be British today, as well as the food in shops, local restaurants and the languages ​​spoken in our major cities, this list of countries is very old news.

The UK immigration system means that virtually everyone who comes to the UK does so with an offer of work or a university place. Combined with the fact that the majority of overseas students and workers are from countries that have long-standing ties to the UK and existing community networks, why should we expect this immigration cycle to have anything like social or political effects what have we seen in the past?

There are now two countries that make up a large chunk of this year’s figures: Hong Kong and Ukraine (see our article here). Like these two excellent pieces on the experience of Hongkongers in the UK by Alexandra Goss AND our Georgina Quach prove, we are not talking about a population that requires huge government help to integrate into the UK, although individual cases differ.

The challenges faced by Ukrainian refugees are more complicated. It helps that the Ukrainian cause is very popular in the UK – I have yet to visit a constituency and I don’t see at least one visible sign of support for Ukraine, whether it’s a bumper sticker, a flag in a window or waving from a chimney – but this represents a bigger potential change for the UK. It may be that as the Homes for Ukraine program unfolds, we see a return to something much more like the previous waves of anti-immigrant sentiment in the country.

For the most part, many of the arrivals are doing what most new migrants tend to do: trying to live in areas where there is already a pre-existing diaspora presence that is fairly well integrated into the local areas. As people move to less historically diverse areas, that may change.

But how John Burn-Murdoch’s rich research on the social differences between the United States and Great Britain this week shows that the UK has a good story to tell when it comes to integration.

I don’t know if that explanation is right, and as I said, it’s possible that events could mean that we see a return to some of the political fissures of the past. But I’m saying that as we discuss the UK’s high net migration figures and what Rishi Sunak and Keir Starmer should do next, we should at least consider the possibility that perhaps the fact that so many people with jobs, university posts and family ties in the UK still wanting to come here is something worth celebrating, don’t worry.

Now try this

I just devoured the latest Linda Grant novel, The story of the forest, a gripping family saga spanning Latvia, Liverpool and the better part of a century. It’s a really great book, with a beautiful cover, which I know should be a secondary concern, but, nonetheless, it’s an added delight. Don’t just take my word for it: Catherine Taylor also thought she was brilliant. Read his review here.

However you spend it, have a wonderful weekend. Inside politics will be back on Tuesday.

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