Spain’s Political Landscape: A Closer Look at Vox’s Rise and the Challenges of Coalition Politics
Introduction
Spain, once known for its absence of far-right populist parties, has recently witnessed the emergence of Vox, a nationalist party set to enter the government after early elections. This shift in the political landscape reflects broader trends in Spain and Europe as a whole. The country’s economic downturn, political polarization, and the turmoil surrounding Catalan separatism have created fertile ground for Vox’s rise. In this article, we will explore the factors contributing to Vox’s success and the challenges of coalition politics in Spain.
The Post-Franco Era: Economic Growth and Political Stability
For three decades after the post-Franco transition to democracy, Spain experienced remarkable economic growth and political stability. The two dominant parties, socialists, and the Popular Party, ensured a relatively stable political environment. However, this period of prosperity came to an abrupt end with the bursting of the housing bubble in 2008, leading to economic collapse and a series of challenges that shaped the country’s political landscape for years to come.
The Rise of Podemos and Catalan Separatism
The aftermath of the economic crisis in Spain witnessed the emergence of Podemos, a left-wing party that gained traction by capitalizing on the outrage against austerity measures. Simultaneously, Catalan nationalism transformed into separatism, fueled by the desire for regional independence. These two factors further contributed to the fragmentation and polarization of Spanish politics.
The Role of Catalan Secession Attempt in Vox’s Rise
Vox’s breakthrough can be attributed to a unique event in Spanish politics: the Catalan regional government’s unconstitutional referendum in 2017, aiming to secede from Spain. This secession attempt struck fear in the hearts of many Spaniards, galvanizing support for Vox, which vehemently opposes separatism. Since then, Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez has worked to calm the Catalan conflict by pardoning jailed separatist leaders, but the specter of secessionism remains a potent driver of Vox’s popularity.
Vox’s Agenda: Nationalism, Immigration, and Cultural Identity
Vox’s success is not solely based on the Catalan issue but also its ability to tap into concerns about uncontrolled immigration and the preservation of traditional Spanish values. The party advocates for recentralizing education, health, and police powers, which are primarily devolved to the regions. Additionally, Vox opposes laws protecting women from violence, as well as legislation related to abortion and euthanasia. While Vox’s positions are not widely shared among Spaniards, the party has managed to secure a significant percentage of the vote, challenging the dominance of mainstream parties.
The Fragile State of Coalition Politics
Sánchez’s Socialist Party formed Spain’s first coalition government since the 1930s with Podemos, relying on parliamentary support from hardline Basque and Catalan nationalists. This arrangement, dubbed a “Frankenstein” government by critics, lasted for three years, during which the coalition managed to navigate the challenges posed by the pandemic and initiate economic recovery measures. However, recent controversies and political maneuvering have strained the coalition, undermining its stability and potentially leading to a repeat of previous electoral deadlock.
The Discontent of Moderate Voters
Moderate voters expressed their discontent in recent local elections, with the Socialists and their left-wing allies losing control of several regions. This setback prompted Sánchez to veer further to the left, introducing controversial laws on democratic memory, sexual consent, and trans and animal rights. These moves aimed to placate Catalan separatists but have fueled criticism and strained the coalition government.
The Possibility of a PP-Vox Government
The upcoming national elections in Spain present an uncertain political landscape. Sánchez’s decision to hold an election at the end of July, when many Spaniards are on vacation, has sparked criticism and raised the possibility of political deadlock and a subsequent repeat of elections. The conservative Popular Party, in alliance with Vox, is poised to make significant gains, potentially leading to the formation of a PP-Vox government.
The Challenges of Polarized Politics
Spain’s polarized politics have led to various challenges, including regulatory uncertainty and a semi-paralyzed judiciary. Despite the divided political landscape, the two major parties, the Socialists and the Popular Party, are still likely to secure approximately 60 percent of the vote. In order to foster a healthier democracy, these parties should strive to cooperate, setting aside ideological differences for the benefit of the country.
Conclusion
The rise of Vox and the challenges of coalition politics in Spain reflect broader trends in European politics. Economic downturns, political polarization, and regional conflicts have fueled the rise of populist parties across the continent. Spain’s unique circumstances, such as the Catalan secession attempt, have contributed to Vox’s popularity. As Spain navigates through complex political terrain, the need for cooperation and stability becomes more vital than ever.
Summary
Spain’s political landscape has undergone significant changes in recent years, with the rise of Vox, a far-right nationalist party, and the challenges of coalition politics. The country’s economic downturn, political polarization, and the turmoil surrounding Catalan separatism have created fertile ground for Vox’s rise. The upcoming elections present an uncertain political landscape, with the possibility of a PP-Vox government. Despite the challenges posed by polarized politics, fostering cooperation between the major parties is crucial for the stability and future of Spanish democracy.
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The writer is the author of ‘Spain: the trials and triumphs of a modern European country’
Spain was once noted for not having a far-right populist party of the type common in Western Europe. It seemed as if memories of the Francisco Franco dictatorship had seared voters against extremism. Now there is Vox, a far-right nationalist party about to enter the government after early elections called by Pedro Sánchez, the socialist prime minister, for July 23. Polls say the conservative Popular Party will get the most votes. But he may still need Vox to achieve a parliamentary majority.
Therefore, do not blame the ghost of Franco. Rather, Vox’s rise reflects trends in Spain that, with one exception, mirror those in the rest of Europe. During the 30 years after the post-Franco transition to democracy, Spain enjoyed economic growth and political stability, with two dominant parties in the socialists and the PP.
Then a housing bubble burst in 2008. The economy collapsed. Spain, like its neighbors, endured austerity, corruption, political polarization and fragmentation, and waves of populism. Podemos, a party of the extreme left, emerged from the outraged, a movement against austerity. Another reaction to austerity was the transformation of Catalan nationalism into separatism.
Vox’s breakthrough owed it all to this one rare factor: the Catalan regional government’s attempt to secede through an unconstitutional referendum in 2017. Many Spaniards were terrified their country might break up. Since then, Sánchez has taken much of the sting out of the Catalan conflict, pardoning jailed separatist leaders.
Now, vox the fear of uncontrolled immigration exploits. It also wages a culture war for traditional values in a country that has moved with breakneck speed from Catholic obscurantism to become a socially liberal Scandinavia under the sun. Vox’s electoral manifesto calls for the recentralization of education, health and the police, which are mainly in charge of the regions, and the repeal of laws on violence against women and those that protect abortion and euthanasia.
Most Spaniards do not share Vox’s defense of Spanish masculine identity, nor its denial of climate change in a country. fry in the heat of the Sahara and parched by drought. The party appears to have reached a ceiling of 15 percent of the vote. Most polls suggest he will win fewer than the 52 seats (out of 350) he won in the November 2019 election. But no Spanish government since 2015 has enjoyed a parliamentary majority. In an uncertain world of coalition politics, Vox is now spying on its opportunity.
Sánchez formed Spain’s first coalition government since the 1930s with Podemos, also drawing parliamentary support from hardline Basque and Catalan nationalists, an arrangement despised by the previous Socialist leader as a “Frankenstein” government. For three years it worked pretty well: Sánchez kept his allies in check while guiding Spain through the pandemic and toward economic recovery. His government raised the minimum wage, strengthened the welfare state and approved a labor reform to end the abuse of temporary contracts.
Apparently disturbed by the PP’s recovery under a new leader, Alberto Núñez Feijóo, Sánchez veered to the left last year. He stirred up controversial and poorly drafted laws on “democratic memory,” sexual consent, and trans and animal rights. Placate catalan separatists, approved changes to the penal code. And he negotiated favors with EH Bildu, the successor party to the Basque separatist movement ETA. bildu He has yet to make a full apology for ETA’s decades of terrorism.
Moderate voters showed their discontent in the local elections in May. The Socialists and their rowdy far-left allies lost control of six regions they were defending. By call for national elections Five months earlier, Sánchez rightly calculated that the PP would be distracted by negotiating with Vox to form regional administrations. The Socialists have regained ground in the polls. But holding an election at the end of July, with many Spaniards on vacation, smacks of desperation. A deadlock and a repeat of the elections are possible, as in 2015-16 and 2019. The PP could surprise with a landslide. But a PP-Vox government remains the most likely outcome.
Spain has many strong points. Your society is more tolerant than your politics. It has world class communications and the economy is still capable of growing. But polarized politics comes at a cost: regulatory uncertainty and the semi-paralysis of the judiciary, for example. Between them, the two major parties are likely to get around 60 percent of the vote. For the good of Spanish democracy, they should learn to cooperate once more.
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