The United States must seize the opportunity to stabilize relations with China

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The author is a professor at Georgetown University and was on the staff of the US National Security Council from 2009 to 2015.

A new phase in the strategic competition between the United States and China may be opening up. After months of bitterness and deadlock, contact between the two countries is finally resuming. The challenge for Washington and Beijing is to capitalize on this moment to produce a lasting foundation for stable relations. The future of global stability and prosperity depends on it.

This week, China’s new ambassador to the United States arrived after a long vacancy. China’s trade minister also traveled to Washington, the first senior official to visit him since 2020. More importantly, this month US National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan met with China’s top diplomat , Wang Yi, which started the dialogue frozen since the spring. This can become the most important bilateral channel for discussions.

More high-level interactions are coming. Several US cabinet officials are likely to travel to Beijing, likely culminating in a visit by Xi Jinping to San Francisco for the 31st Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation leaders’ summit.

All of this has created a window of opportunity to put the relationship on a more stable trajectory, or at least less prone to accidents, miscalculations, or crises. The opening is small and fragile but, done right, it could produce a more predictable, resilient, and productive relationship. Both sides are indicating that they want more stability, or at least less volatility and friction. But each wants this for different reasons, and it remains uncertain whether these views can be reconciled.

Washington wants dialogue and risk reduction, amid more competition policy and pushback. Rather, China wants to reduce the constant strategic pressure it faces from the US and its allies, while continuing to bend global rules and norms in its favor. The next few months will be a process of finding, or not finding, a new normal, a kind of strategic balance.

It comes at a critical time. This is Biden’s last chance before the 2024 electoral dynamics consume Washington. The United States and its allies are in the beginning stages of a new kind of strategic competition, one with few precedents in modern international affairs. this is geopolitical unknown land for everyone.

So how should policymakers best seize the opportunity? First, US leaders and their counterparts in Europe and Asia must proceed with a clear understanding of the moment. Xi’s China is capable, ambitious and confident, but also frustrated and insecure. Xi now believes that China is locked in a long-term geopolitical and ideological competition with the “global West,” which he sees as a major threat to internal and external security. His views are hardening, reflected in his rare public statement in March that “the US-led Western countries have implemented containment, encirclement and repression measures against us.”

Thus, Washington and Beijing are constantly testing each other’s limits, as their competition militarises, globalizes, and nuclear weapons come to the fore. Xi’s tolerance for risk and friction is growing. And the relationship possesses few of the mechanisms to handle such complexity.

This new stage is not détente, far from it. Rather, it is reconnection. Both sides need to rebuild basic communication channels. Washington and his associates must figure out how to talk to Xi’s new cohort of technocrats, securocrats and ideologues. This is fraught with risk. As the dialogue resumes, focusing on improving the relationship could become an end in itself, as opposed to the means to advance American interests. This is a dynamic that Beijing cleverly uses to play for time and advantage.

Second, Washington needs to have a game plan for the entire set of interactions, culminating in Xi’s possible visit. Washington and Beijing should try to agree on an infrastructure for sustained dialogue, set a modest agenda focused on the biggest issues, and try to resolve a few small issues. They could start by increasing direct flights and solving exit bans; The biggest challenges include China’s policies toward North Korea and Iran, and Beijing’s contributions to humanitarian aid in Ukraine.

Third, Washington must proceed with clear objectives. These should include reducing Chinese misperception of US intentions, clarifying US policy (especially on Taiwan), stabilizing more volatile types of competition, and sparking cooperation on common problems. Then the US needs to measure success or failure and adjust policy accordingly.

Talks on Ukraine, North Korea, Iran, global financial and macroeconomic stability, especially emerging market debt, are long overdue. An American opening to a constructive Chinese role on all of these issues is worth exploring.

Fourth, both parties must be pragmatic and have modest ambitions. Relitigating Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan and the balloon incident will only incite recriminations.

The Cold War between the United States and the Soviet Union is a tempting but inadequate reference point for understanding the nature of US-China ties today. But even the Cold War had its phases and turning points, particularly the Cuban Missile Crisis. For US-China relations, that time may be near. It would be a tragedy to waste it, lest we repeat such a dangerous past.