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Across much of Europe, voters are flocking to populist and nationalist parties in search of an alternative to mainstream politics. But the victory of the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party in regional elections on Sunday in Thuringia is particularly unsettling. It marks the party’s first victory in a state parliamentary election, and the AfD came second behind the centre-right in neighbouring Saxony. And it comes against the backdrop of Germany’s dark history of political extremism and generations-long efforts to come to terms with its Nazi past.
The rise of the AfD is also more worrying than that of its counterparts in France or Italy, for example, because of its radicalism. Some members openly espouse ethno-nationalist and xenophobic views, and some of its members are considered extremists by the German security services. Björn Höcke, the leader of the AfD in Thuringia, was convicted for using banned Nazi slogans. The fact that almost a third of voters in Thuringia and Saxony voted for it is deeply disturbing. Another 10-15 percent voted for the populist, far-left Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW), whose anti-immigrant and pro-Russian stances coincide with those of the AfD.
The far-right’s success has a regional dimension. Parts of eastern Germany, such as Thuringia and Saxony, are more fertile ground for the AfD than the west. The party’s poll numbers there are almost double its national average. Despite the remarkable transformation of the former communist east since reunification, too many easterners feel neglected, ignored and belittled by their western compatriots. Imagined inferiority is ripe for populists to exploit. Changing it could take another generation.
Although Germany, of all countries, cannot afford to be complacent, the AfD is unlikely to share power at the regional level in the near future, let alone take it over at the federal level. The “firewall” against cooperation with it remains intact. But the AfD’s success will still cause harm, first to Thuringia and Saxony, where migrant workers urgently needed to fill jobs may be discouraged by anti-foreigner sentiment.
The election may also further destabilise a federal government of Social Democrats, Liberals and Greens that is already dysfunctional and deeply unpopular a year before national elections. Led weakly by centre-left Chancellor Olaf Scholz, the parties appear to see more value in fighting than in governing together. The prospect of an electoral collapse will only make matters worse. Yet the coalition’s ineffectiveness has been the perfect fuel for an anti-establishment vote.
The same has been true of its alleged laxity on illegal immigration. In a moment of panic ahead of Sunday’s election, the government bowed to opposition pressure last week and deported a handful of rejected asylum seekers to Afghanistan. Germany, like other EU countries, needs to improve its record on deportations to restore confidence in migration policy, but it also needs to attract migrant labour while finding a way to secure public support.
The danger of the far-right’s electoral advance is that traditional parties will be drawn into its turf but fail to dissuade voters from opting for the original radical party. This is a particular trap for the Christian Democratic Union, which is on course to win the next general election. It has swung to the right under Friedrich Merz’s leadership and is now seeking an unlikely coalition in Thuringia and Saxony with the anti-immigrant BSW party. Last week Merz said Germany should be prepared to reimpose land border controls to stop all asylum seekers.
Another risk is that mainstream parties will reduce their support for Ukraine because the pro-Russian AfD and BSW have exploited skepticism about the policy among voters in the east. With little or no formal role in government, extremists could push Germany toward a policy that would be a disaster for Ukraine and for European security.