Additional Piece:
Navigating the Rocky Road: Restoring US-China Relations
The diplomatic dance between the United States and China has been fraught with tension and discord for some time now. However, there are glimmers of hope that the two global powers may be inching towards a resolution. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s upcoming visit to Beijing signals the first high-level engagement between the two countries since 2018, marking a potential turning point in the strained relationship. As the world watches with bated breath, the stakes are high, and the expectations for progress are even higher.
Escalating tensions and a history of disagreements have brought US-China relations to their nadir. The United States has raised concerns about China’s military activities in the Taiwan Strait and its reluctance to condemn Russia’s aggression in Ukraine. Meanwhile, China has accused the United States of restraining its growth by imposing export controls on advanced technologies and strengthening security measures with its allies. The relationship reached a boiling point when a Chinese spy balloon infiltrated North American airspace, triggering alarm bells of national security breaches.
Despite this tumultuous backdrop, recent developments hint at a potential thaw in the icy relationship. In May, CIA Director Bill Burns made a secret visit to China, according to reports from the Financial Times. This clandestine meeting, coupled with US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan’s discussions with Wang Yi, a senior Chinese foreign policy official, in Vienna, signals a concerted effort to find common ground. During the G7 summit in Hiroshima, Japan, President Joe Biden expressed optimism about an imminent “thaw” in relations.
Secretary Blinken’s visit to China serves as a crucial step towards reviving the floundering relationship. However, the challenges ahead are not to be underestimated. Progress will be hard-won, as Blinken himself acknowledges. His goal is to reconnect, rather than relax, by establishing a foundation of stability and rebuilding trust. Both countries recognize the importance of a successful meeting, but it is premature to predict the outcome.
As Blinken engages in two days of discussions with Chinese Foreign Minister Qin Gang and other officials, the question looms: will he meet with President Xi Jinping? The absence of a meeting between the two leaders would send a strong signal, indicative of China’s concerns about the United States’ intentions to curtail its technological advancements and mitigate risks. The significance of this encounter cannot be overstated, with a Chinese scholar noting that Blinken’s visit will only be deemed successful if he meets with President Xi. The power dynamics at play are palpable, with the Secretary of State’s counterparts in China lacking the same authority as their American counterpart.
The infamous spy balloon incident continues to cast a long shadow over the relationship. The United States claims that China used the balloon for surveillance, while China maintains that it was a harmless weather observation vessel. The FBI’s investigation into the matter has become a point of contention, with China fearing that its findings may be used to further strain the relationship. Republican senators, in a letter to President Biden, urged the release of the FBI’s results, citing concerns about Chinese attempts to silence the United States. The ball remains in the court of the investigating agencies, adding an additional layer of complexity to the restoration process.
Complicating matters further, the United States is facing criticism from within its own borders. Republican Congressman Mike Gallagher suggests that efforts to engage with China amount to a “zombie engagement,” warning against complacency in the face of Chinese aggression. However, his Democratic counterpart Raja Krishnamoorthi contends that high-level meetings are crucial for stabilizing relations and conveying the consequences of China’s belligerence. While the debate rages, the Biden administration aims to strike a careful balance between clear communication and discouraging further aggression.
In conclusion, the US-China relationship stands at a critical juncture. Secretary Blinken’s visit to China presents a glimmer of hope for a much-needed reset. Both nations face the momentous task of reestablishing trust and finding common ground on contentious issues. The path ahead is treacherous and beset with challenges, but the potential rewards of a restored relationship are profound. Whether a new chapter in US-China relations can be written remains to be seen, but the world watches with anticipation and interest.
Summary:
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s visit to Beijing holds great significance as it marks the first high-level engagement between the United States and China since 2018. The strained relationship between the two countries, characterized by escalating tensions and disagreements, has reached a nadir. Nevertheless, recent developments, such as CIA Director Bill Burns’ secret visit to China and discussions between US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan and Chinese officials, hint at a potential thaw in relations. Secretary Blinken’s primary objective is to establish stability and rebuild trust, emphasizing the need for progress rather than relaxation. However, challenges lie ahead, with the possibility of a meeting between Blinken and President Xi Jinping serving as a litmus test for the success of the visit. The spy balloon incident, ongoing concerns about the FBI investigation into the matter, and internal criticism within the United States further complicate the restoration process. Despite these obstacles, the world eagerly awaits the outcome of the discussions, recognizing the global implications of a restored US-China relationship.
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US Secretary of State Antony Blinken arrives in Beijing on Sunday on a much-anticipated mission aimed at reviving US-China relations, which collapsed in February after an alleged Chinese spy balloon flew over North America North.
Blinken will be the first secretary of state to visit China since 2018, a reflection of China’s strict lockdown during the pandemic, but also how US-China relations have sunk to their lowest level in decades.
His trip is designed to follow a meeting President Joe Biden and President Xi Jinping held in Bali in November when they agreed on the need to create a “floor” in the relationship. But the plan was derailed in February when Blinken canceled a visit to China because of the ball.
Relations have been on a downward trajectory in recent years. The United States is concerned about everything from China’s military activity around Taiwan to its refusal to condemn Russia for invading Ukraine. Meanwhile, Beijing accuses the United States of trying to rein in China with export controls on advanced technologies and security measures it has taken with allies.
The relationship came to a head when the Chinese balloon appeared over North America in late January and traveled across the continent, including over sensitive military sites, before the United States shoot down.
Over the past month, there have been signs of improvement. The Financial Times reported that CIA Director bill burns secretly visited China in May, and in the same month, US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan met with Wang Yi, a senior Chinese foreign policy official, in Vienna. Biden later said at the G7 in Hiroshima, Japan that he expected an imminent “thaw” in relations.
A senior US official said the relationship was now “in a position where we can push the Bali agenda forward”.
“That’s the purpose of this trip,” said the official, who warned Blinken was “very lucid” that progress would be “difficult” to achieve.
“This trip is about reconnecting, not relaxing. He needs to stop the free fall in relations and find a basis of stability,” said Evan Medeiros, a China expert from Georgetown University. “Both countries need and want the meeting not to go badly, but it is too early to speak of success.”
Daniel Kritenbrink, the State Department’s top East Asia official, said Blinken had three goals, including the need for communication channels to ensure competition “does not veer into conflict.” He said Blinken would also raise issues of concern while looking for possible areas of cooperation.
Dennis Wilder, a former CIA China expert, said the visit would end a period of “profound acrimony” but would do little to address “fundamental distrust”.
“The Chinese remain vexed by the postponement of Secretary Blinken’s visit earlier this year and his public warnings to Beijing during the Munich security conference. [in February] on possible lethal Chinese aid to Russia”.
Blinken will hold two days of meetings with Chinese Foreign Minister Qin Gang and other officials. It is unclear if he will meet Xi, whom he was due to see in February.
Wilder said any decision by Xi not to meet with Blinken would be a “strong signal” that China fears the United States will take more steps to restrict its development of cutting-edge technologies and other efforts to “reduce risks”.
A Chinese scholar said Blinken’s trip would only be deemed successful if he met Xi. He said it would amount to a “snub” if he only met Qin or Wang, as they are not as powerful in China as the Secretary of State in the United States.
While US officials say enough time has passed since the balloon incident to resume high-level meetings, it still weighs on the relationship.
The FT had previously reported that China was reluctant to grant Blinken a visit, fearing the FBI would release the results of an investigation into the ball. In a letter citing the FT story, 19 Republican senators this week urged Biden not to succumb to Chinese efforts to “silence the United States” and to release the FBI’s findings “immediately.”
Raja Krishnamoorthi, the top Democrat on the House of Representatives China Committee, said he had reviewed some documents related to the balloon provided by the FBI and the information was “revealing”.
“For them [China] to call it a weather balloon. . . is not a great look for them,” he added.
Asked on Saturday whether the trip could help ease tensions, Biden said Xi did not know what the balloon, which China claims was a weather observation vessel, was doing. “It was more embarrassing than intentional,” he said, adding that he hoped to meet Xi “in the coming months.”
The Republican head of the House China Committee, Mike Gallagher, told the FT that the president’s comments were “naive and misleading”.
“We cannot afford to confuse the recent violations of our sovereignty by the Chinese Communist Party and the growing aggression as a mere accident.”
Some analysts have said China may want a “tactical pause” in tensions to allow it to deal with its struggling economy, which is struggling to recover from previous strict Covid restrictions. U.S. export controls and Chinese moves to toughen anti-spy laws and crack down on foreign consultants have also hurt investor sentiment in China.
But in a warning to those hoping for a quick thaw, China’s Foreign Ministry issued a tongue-in-cheek swipe at the United States on Friday, warning Washington against continuing to seek “communications” while “damaging the interests of China”.
Back in Washington, the Biden administration is also facing criticism from Republicans, including Gallagher, who has called efforts to deal with Beijing a “zombie engagement.” This week, he told CNBC that efforts to provide China with olive branches to incite engagement were an “invitation to aggression.”
But Krishnamoorthi, his Democratic counterpart, said high-level meetings could help stabilize relations and were needed to communicate clearly to China how its aggressive behavior could “trigger an escalation”.
“Mike might like zombie movies. . . but it’s really important that we have those discussions, that we do everything we can to be clear and listen carefully at the same time, and then try to find ways to discourage aggression.
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https://www.ft.com/content/749da706-9eaf-4a74-880b-dcc62f436dc9
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