Ministers are drawing up plans to stop family members joining overseas masters students at UK universities, as Rishi Sunak braces for figures showing record net migration to the UK.
The Tories promised in the 2019 general election that ‘overall numbers will come down’, but official data due this month is instead expected to show that in 2022 the net migration reached record levels.
“The numbers will be high,” admitted a government insider, referring to the planned release of the data by the Office for National Statistics on May 25.
Between June 2021 and June 2022, net migration to the UK hit a record high of 504,000, according to ONS data, but the Center for Policy Studies think tank estimated the total for last year . could exceed 700,000. Almost all of the increase is due to non-EU migration.
Experts have said ‘abnormally high’ levels of net migration will continue until after the next election, due in 2024 – driven by upheaval in Ukraine and Hong Kong, NHS staff shortages and the growing number of international students – before dropping off in later years.
Rising legal net migration is increasing the size of Britain’s workforce, but the issue is politically problematic for the Prime Minister. Sunak grapples with the separate and more controversial issue of illegal migration of people in small boats crossing the Channel.
The Conservatives trail the opposition Labor Party by around 15 percentage points in opinion polls and last week were hammered in local elections in England. Immigration has become one of the most volatile political issues.
Ministers are finalizing plans to tackle a recent booming area of legal migration: the number of dependents coming to Britain from overseas masters studentsoften from India and Nigeria.
Students have been a key driver of the rise in migration following the coronavirus pandemic, with nearly 500,000 study visas issued by UK authorities in 2022, an 81% increase on 2019 .
Students, especially those from Nigeria and India, have become more likely to bring their families with them, with 135,788 visas granted for dependents in 2022, up from 16,047 in 2019.
The Department of Education, Home Department and Treasury are finalizing a plan that would prevent dependents from traveling with masters students on one-year courses, according to several officials familiar with the talks .
One said, “Many of these courses only last nine months. We don’t think this will have a big effect on our ability to attract global talent.
A minister confirmed the focus was on the dependents of masters students, saying: “Clearly we have to do something. We are far from David Cameron’s promise to reduce the annual net migration to “tens of thousands”.
The Treasury, which normally favors higher migration, accepted the political need to restrict the number of dependents of overseas students, while Gillian Keegan, the education secretary, also agreed to the plan.
But government insiders said Keegan insisted Masters students should be able to bring family members to the UK if they stay to work in the country after completing their studies.
“International education is popular,” Keegan said in a speech this week. “It makes us all richer. We all benefit from building lasting partnerships and connections. It is something that we greatly appreciate.
Madeleine Sumption, director of the University of Oxford’s Migration Observatory, said while net migration was unusually high, it would “fall over the next few years, all things being equal”, as people recently arrivals in the UK are leaving, particularly if they are overseas students.
“In other words, we cannot assume that the current high levels of net migration represent a ‘new normal’. It would not make sense to make major political decisions on the assumption that what we see now will continue forever. »
The Office for Budget Responsibility, Britain’s budget watchdog, said in March it expected net migration flows to be around 245,000 each year.
Vivienne Stern, chief executive of Universities UK, the sector’s representative body, said universities were focused on securing the graduate visa pathway, which allows students to work after completing their studies.
They would also champion the importance of overseas students to UK higher education and the wider economy, she added.
The Home Office said: “The public rightly expects us to police our borders and we remain committed to reducing net migration over time, while ensuring we have the skills we need. our economy and our public services need.”
Alp Mehmet, chairman of Migration Watch UK, said ministers were right to worry about rising migration.
“The number of net migrations for the whole of 2022 will be well above the record high of 500,000 for the year to June 2022. This is more than 10 times the number of people who crossed the English Channel last year .”
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