Politics and the Transition from Opposition to Government
The Challenges of Transition
During the filming of the original Star Wars movie, Harrison Ford famously complained to George Lucas
about the difficulties of expressing certain lines. This sentiment resonates with the world of politics, where
the transition from an opposition party to government comes with its own limitations. Just like the journey from
script to screen in the movie industry, the shift to government imposes constraints on political parties.
The Similarity of Political Agendas
In their quest to govern, even parties with different ideologies often end up talking about the same set of
problems. Although they may disagree on the solutions, the ultimate goal remains the same – the betterment of
the country they seek to govern. This convergence of agendas can make well-run political parties sound similar to
one another.
The Incentive for Outlandish Promises
Unfortunately, parties with no power and minimal prospects of reaching power are often incentivized to make
outrageous promises. This is especially true in winner-take-all electoral systems, as seen in the UK during the
first decade of the 21st century.
The Rise and Fall of the Liberal Democrats
The Liberal Democrats, the UK’s third party, experienced significant growth by making unrealistic pledges that no
minor party could realistically fulfill. However, their unexpected entry into a coalition government in 2010,
along with the election of a more serious leader, forced them to confront the feasibility of their promises.
Clegg’s Coalition and the Shock to the Electorate
Under the leadership of Nick Clegg, the Liberal Democrats joined a coalition government with the Conservatives.
This decision, coupled with the implementation of many of the party’s manifesto items, shocked the British
electorate. Political scientists have even likened its impact to that of the financial crisis.
Disillusionment and Political Realignment
Disillusionment with the Liberal Democrats’ record in government led to a significant realignment of voting
patterns. Some of the party’s anti-establishment vote shifted towards the pro-Brexit UK Independence Party
(UKIP), while others gravitated towards Jeremy Corbyn’s Labour Party.
The Conservative Party and Promising the Impossible
Within the Conservative Party, right-wing politicians such as Liz Truss gained popularity by pledging to deliver
the impossible, once free from the constraints of the coalition government. However, when Truss attempted to
fulfill these promises as prime minister, the results proved catastrophic for both her party and the country.
The Allure of Nonsense Across the Political Spectrum
It is not just the Conservatives or the Labour Party’s left wing that succumbs to the attraction of nonsensical
promises. Both Rishi Sunak, a prominent figure in the Conservative Party, and Labour leader Keir Starmer are
likely to make grand claims regarding spending cuts and tax increases in the lead up to the next election.
The Importance of Government Restraint
A key factor shaping the behavior of political parties is the presence or absence of government restraint. Parties
that do not hold power feel freer to make unrealistic promises, whereas parties in government must grapple with
the practical realities of delivering on their commitments.
The Challenges Ahead for Winners
Regardless of who emerges victorious in an election, they often find themselves in a similar position as Nick
Clegg did – celebrating success, but also needing to account for years of impractical promises. Whether it is the
loss of the country’s EU membership or other chaotic events, voters can be fickle, and politicians must be wary
of overpromising.
Conclusion
Politics is a world where speech and action do not always align. Parties may face constraints as they transition
from opposition to government, but the choices they make – and the promises they break – have real
consequences. It is imperative for politicians to exercise responsibility, prioritize realistic solutions, and
remain grounded in the common sense that the electorate so desperately demands.
Additional Insights
Understanding the dynamics of politics requires delving deeper into related concepts and exploring practical
examples. Here are some additional insights to enhance your understanding of the topic:
The Role of Opposition Parties
Opposition parties play a crucial role in scrutinizing the actions of the ruling government. Without the checks
and balances provided by opposition voices, the ruling party could potentially wield too much power without being
held accountable.
The Influence of Public Opinion
Political parties are acutely attuned to public sentiment and continuously adapt their messaging to align with the
prevailing mood. This responsiveness to public opinion, however, can sometimes result in strategic compromises
and watered-down promises.
The Long-Term Impact of Broken Promises
While making grand promises may help parties gain short-term support, the long-term consequences of unfulfilled
commitments can erode public trust. Voters often remember broken promises, and parties must reckon with the
fallout in subsequent elections.
The Influence of Media and Political Messaging
The media plays a significant role in shaping public opinion and can exert pressure on political parties to
conform to certain narratives. Parties must carefully craft their messages to resonate with the electorate while
safeguarding their core principles and policy goals.
Summary
The transition from an opposition party to government brings its own challenges and limitations. Well-run
political parties may start to sound similar as they attempt to address common problems plaguing the country. In
the UK, the Liberal Democrats experienced significant growth by making extravagant promises; however, their entry
into a coalition government forced them to confront the feasibility of their pledges. The allure of outlandish
promises cuts across political parties, with politicians often feeling free to make implausible commitments when
not in government. The restraint imposed by government responsibilities can help ensure more realistic policy
proposals. Ultimately, politicians must strike a careful balance between appealing to voters and maintaining
credibility by fulfilling promises. Understanding these dynamics provides crucial insights into the world of
politics and the challenges faced by political parties during the transition from opposition to government.
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During the filming of the original. Star Wars, Harrison Ford complained to George Lucas that “you can write these things, but you can’t say them”, although he used a stronger wordform. Politics is like the movie industry in many ways, but especially in this: just as the journey from script to screen imposes its own limitations, so does the transition from opposition party to government.
That goes some way to explaining why well-run political parties start to sound like the rest. Even if they don’t agree on the solutions, they’ll be talking about the same set of problems because they’re trying to run the same country.
As Lucas later demonstrated, if you’re powerful enough, eventually people have to say what you want them to say. But parties that have no power and whose prospects of reaching power seem constantly remote are incentivized to say some incredibly dumb things.
In the UK, during the first decade of the 21st century, this role was fulfilled admirably by the Liberal Democrats, the country’s third party. The Lib Dems enjoyed remarkable growth, largely by making promises no minor party could keep in office, including a multi-billion dollar pledge to eliminate tuition fees.
But the party’s unexpected entry into a coalition government in 2010, along with the election of a more serious leader, forced it, at least for a while, to focus on whether it could deliver on its promises. Nick Clegg rallied the Liberal Democrats into a coalition and implemented most of his manifesto, but he found himself doomed for failing to deliver on some of the party’s wildest promises.
The entry of the Liberal Democrats into a coalition with the Conservatives, and Clegg’s decision to turn them from sideline spectators into a serious party, came as such a shock to the British that political scientists have compared its effect on the UK electorate to the financial crisis. But the Lib Dems aren’t the only ones who alternate between silly and serious.
Disillusionment with the Lib Dems’ record in government meant that part of their traditional anti-establishment vote, previously concentrated in a party of respectable centrists, ended up finding a more destructive home in the pro-Brexit Ukip, while other disgruntled Lib Dem members ended up voting for Jeremy Corbyn to become Labor leader.
Within the Conservative Party, right-wingers like Liz Truss were able to cultivate a following and rise through the ranks by pledging to deliver the impossible once freed from the yoke of coalition with the Liberal Democrats. When Truss finally tried to do just that after becoming prime minister, the results were catastrophic, for her party and her country.
In winner-take-all electoral systems, like the UK’s antiquated first step, losers are given strong incentives to take ridiculous positions. The Lib Dems’ success in the by-election not only boosts party morale, but also helps Ed Davey, the current leader, in his efforts to keep his party grounded in reality and common sense. As for the Conservatives, Rishi Sunak’s main rivals are better off promising tax cuts, which are popular with party members, and opposing spending cuts, which are unpopular with voters, because, for the moment, there is no danger they will have to implement either.
One of the reasons why, as with Labor after 2010, the Conservative party is likely to become much less serious if it loses the next election is that it will no longer feel the government’s restraint. Conservatives will be able to promise tax cuts without having to think seriously about interest rates or government spending. They will be able to promise cuts in immigration without worrying about labor markets. Nor is the attraction to nonsense limited to the right of the Conservative Party or the left of the Labor Party.
Both Sunak and Labor leader Keir Starmer will go into the next election talking about how little they will spend, how reluctant they will be to tax more, and how much they think they can achieve without more spending increases or higher taxes. Neither of you is being totally serious.
Whoever wins is likely to find themselves in the same position Clegg once was: celebrating a success, but also having to make up for years of foolish promises and impossible commitments. It has taken the loss of the country’s EU membership and eight years of chaos for voters to once again open their hearts to the Liberal Democrats. Starmer and Sunak have to be very careful, unless their own foolish promises leave them facing an even worse situation than Clegg found himself in 2015, and with no promise of a job at Meta to follow.
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