Unbelievable! The Shocking Connection: How Putin and Prigozhin Fuel Unrest in Ukraine

I think this uneasiness was palpable at the meeting of Russian President Vladimir Putin on June 13 with a group of influential military bloggers – People who support the war but have at times been critical of the way it is being waged. The meeting was unusual: in recent months, Putin avoided public statements about the war And postponed his annual Russia Day phone call Show scheduled for June. He similar canceled both the convocation in June 2022 and his Annual press conference in December.

And the standard events he has attended have been far from convincing. At the June 13 meeting with military bloggers and war correspondents, Putin was confronted with a number of pointed questions. In response he replied used the term “warseveral times – deviating from his line that what is happening in Ukraine is a “special operation” – and acknowledging that Ukrainian attacks lead across the border into Russia had been harmful.

On the defensive?

The meeting was Putin’s first public assessment of the conflict since Ukrainian forces expanded the war into Russian territory Drone attacks on Moscow on May 1st and again on May 30th and shelling and forays across the border in the Belgorod region on May 22nd. the latter led to the evacuation by tens of thousands of Russian civilians.

These developments undermine Putin’s argument that this is a “special military operation” and no war, and that life for ordinary Russians can go on as usual.

At the same time is Putin facing a political challenge out of Yevgeny Prigozhin, the former cook and mercenary leader. Prigozhin goes ahead the Wagner group, a private company that recruited around 50,000 fighters for the Ukraine war on behalf of Moscow. They played a key role in that Capture of the Ukrainian city of Bakhmut, which fell on May 20 after a 224-day siege. After the fall of Bakhmut, polls indicate that Prigozhin collapsed the list of the 10 most trusted officials as seen by ordinary Russians for the first time.

Prigozhin was openly critical about the way Russian Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu and Chief of General Staff Valery Gerasimov are waging the war. In May 2023, Prigozhin organized one series of town meetings throughout Russia he presented his demands. In an attempt to contain Prigozhin, Shoigu ordered that all volunteer fighters must sign a contract with the Defense Ministry by July 1 – which Prigozhin refuses.

Media companies are part of Prigozhin’s business empire, according to the Internet Research Agency, which the US claims interfered in the 2016 US presidential election, a film series and social media channels that allow it to reach tens of millions of Russians. It forms what reporter Scott Johnson has called “Wagner verse”..”

ask questions

Putin faced it against a backdrop of more overt criticism of a war that has now swept across the Russian border some difficult questions when meeting with war correspondents.

One asked why private military companies are not legal in Russia. All Putin said was that it was time to change the law.

Another asked why different regions are allowed to pay different bonuses to contract soldiers from their region. In response, Putin could only offer that Russia was a federal system and regions would spend as much as they could afford. One blogger pointed out that the border districts inside Russia are not considered part of the “special military operation,” meaning soldiers fighting there do not receive combat wages. Another asked about the troop rotation and when the Russians would know the war was won. Putin’s answers were ambiguous on both counts.

One participant questioned Putin about the problem of “parquet generals”, a Term used by Prigozhin This means people who sit in comfortable offices far away from the front lines. Putin agreed that some generals were not up to the task, but supported Shoigu’s order that all volunteers register with the Defense Ministry.

It wasn’t an extensive barbecue, but it wasn’t a cozy chat either.

desperate measures

Measured at opinion pollsSo far there has been little evidence of military setbacks any decline in popular support for the war in Russia. Many Russians seem to think that even if starting a war were wrong, it would be a war It was a mistake to allow Russia to be defeated.

However, members of Russia’s elite seem to share the growing concern being voiced among bloggers. On May 20-21, Russian officials and policy experts attended a meeting of influential people Foreign and Security Policy Council think tank. Judging by the reports of participants such as State Duma Deputy Konstantin Zatulin, there was an unequivocal feeling that the war was going badly.

in one Speech of June 1stZatulin, a prominent nationalist lawmaker, noted that none of the “special operation’s” original goals had been realized and admitted that “the Ukrainians hate us because we kill them.”

Zatulin said that at the session of the Foreign and Security Policy Council, one of the participants suggested dropping an atomic bomb on Rzeszow Transport hub in south-eastern Poland through which most of the western arms reach Ukraine. In fact, on June 14, Sergey Karaganov, the chairman of the council, published an article in which he advocated the demonstrative use of a nuclear weapon to force the West to stop arms sales to Ukraine.

In the 1990s, Karaganov was seen as a liberal who supported Russia’s integration into Europe. Now he appears to believe that Russia’s inability to defeat Ukraine poses a serious threat to its security. Moreover, his talk of using nuclear weapons suggests that Russian elites increasingly believe the country cannot win by conventional means alone. In fact, on June 16, Putin announced that Russia had already started Transfer of some tactical nuclear weapons to Belarus.

In the meantime, the mercenary leader Prigozhin remains a wildcard. Seldom in history have mercenary generals succeeded in seizing political power. Maybe the most famous mercenary of all timeAlbrecht von Wallenstein successfully commanded an army of 50,000 men in the Thirty Years’ War. He became so powerful that his Habsburg paymasters had him murdered.

In Russia’s tightly controlled political landscape, there is no precedent for a personality like Prigozhin. He seems to have few allies in the military establishment or among regional governors. So it’s hard to imagine a scenario where he would be allowed, say, to start his own political party, let alone run for the presidency in 2024.

Nonetheless, he is clearly proving to be a thorn in Putin’s side. And the lack of progress towards defeating Ukraine appears to be making the Russian elite increasingly nervous about how to maintain social stability and fend off political challenges from nationalists arguing for more aggressive warfare.

Peter Rutland is Professor of Government, Wesleyan University.

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