Why Rishi Sunak’s Green Policy Move Could Aid Keir Starmer
Introduction
In a recent article, Rishi Sunak’s approach to the UK’s net zero carbon emissions target is discussed. Sunak has suggested that achieving this target should be done in a “proportionate and pragmatic” manner, signaling a willingness to water down some of the government’s green policies. This move by Sunak is explored in the context of its potential impact on Keir Starmer and the Labour party. While Sunak may not face immediate pressure to change his approach, there are risks involved for both leaders. This article will delve deeper into these risks and the broader implications of watering down green policies.
Less Than Net Zero
Both Keir Starmer and Rishi Sunak find themselves in similar positions, regardless of the recent by-elections. If Labour had won the by-elections, Starmer would have emphasized that they were on the right track and discouraged talk of tax increases derailing their progress. On the other hand, losing all three by-elections would have put Sunak under pressure to change his approach. However, in both cases, these leaders do not face overwhelming pressure to deviate from their chosen paths.
The Risks Involved
While it is understandable that both leaders want to address potential vulnerabilities, there are risks associated with their approaches. For Starmer, attempting to neutralize the issue of tax increases may perpetuate a perception that he would change nothing. This could undermine his ability to differentiate Labour from the Conservatives. On the other hand, if Sunak waters down the government’s green policies, he may inadvertently provide Starmer with a weapon needed to gain an advantage. This could enable Labour to differentiate itself from the Conservatives without the need for an uncomfortable conversation about future budgets.
The Importance of Green Policies
While some voters may express reservations about the costs associated with green policies, it is crucial not to underestimate the importance of these policies. Green policies align with the ideals that British voters generally support, even if they have concerns about the associated costs. Additionally, many of these policies have expiration dates beyond this Parliament and the next, providing Labour with an opportunity to differentiate itself without significant spending commitments.
The Need for Decarbonization
The primary reason Sunak should avoid watering down green policies is the urgent need for decarbonization. Climate change is a pressing threat that requires immediate action. By diluting green policies, Sunak may hinder progress in this crucial area. Moreover, he risks providing Starmer with a valuable tool in the ongoing political battle.
Conclusion
While both Keir Starmer and Rishi Sunak may face unique challenges depending on the outcome of recent by-elections, there are risks involved in their respective approaches. It is important to remember that voters generally support green policies, even if they have concerns about associated costs. The urgency of decarbonization cannot be underestimated, making it crucial for Sunak to maintain robust green policies. By doing so, he can avoid inadvertently aiding Starmer in his political efforts.
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Good morning. Rishi Sunak is setting the stage for watering down some of his green policies, saying that achieving the UK’s net zero carbon emissions target must be done in a “proportionate and pragmatic” way. Strategic masterstroke or political mistake? Some reflections on this issue in today’s note.
Inside Politics is edited by Georgina Quach. Follow Stefano on Twitter @stephenkb and please send your gossip, thoughts and feedback to insidepolitics@ft.com
Less than net zero
Keir Starmer and Rishi Sunak have something in common: the things they have said and done since last week’s by-election are not That different from what they would have said or done things were different in Uxbridge and South Ruislip.
Had Labor won Uxbridge, Starmer would have arrived at the party’s national policy forum to outline some Labor manifesto guidelines with the message ‘we’re on the right track, don’t let talk of tax increases ruin it’. Instead, he told members “don’t let what happened with us in Uxbridge happen to us nationally”. Not so much for clever strategy or the result in favor of him: only for what was the only available message from him.
Similarly, if Sunak had lost all three by-elections, he would have faced a panicked party. (I never believe the talk that defeat is “priced”. In my experience, MPs “price” indicating that they will lose their seats in the same way the rest of us “price” that we will one day die: we still have a tendency to freak out when that happens.) He would have faced pressure to change his approach.
As with Starmer, however, Sunak doesn’t face a lot of pressure to do things she doesn’t want to do. The prime minister is not particularly attached to the government’s net zero targets and won’t cry over his Coke for watering them down. That’s one of the reasons he’s signaling his willingness to do it soften the government’s green policies.
But here, too, both leaders are taking risks. As regular readers of the newsletter will know, I think Labour’s tax vulnerabilities are real and the Labor leadership is right to worry about them. But the risk of trying to neutralize a series of problems is that it comes at the price of making it appear that Starmer would change nothing.
AS our podcast listeners will knowI do not think either party needs to draw a special lesson from the Uxbridge by-election. It’s an old, old story: Voters don’t like to shoulder costs, which is one reason most governments make their painful tax increases (or spending cuts) at the start of a parliament. I also think it would be a particular mistake for conservatives to see what happened as a signal to move away from green policies.
Green policies are like almost everything in British politics: voters like the idea of the product, but often balk at the price. With many of the prices in question seem quite a long way off, even ones coming soon enough, such as the 2030 target to ban new petrol and diesel cars, or the 2035 target for all new zero tailpipe emissions cars and vans, I don’t think the Conservatives have much to gain from watering them down.
Furthermore, all these policies have expiration dates not only after the end of this parliament but also the next one. So they are exactly what Labor needs, given the party’s reluctance to talk about big spending in the next parliament – these are policies by which Labor can differentiate itself from the Conservatives, without having to have an awkward conversation about the next round of budgets.
The main reason not to water down the UK’s green policies is the need to decarbonise. But another reason, if you’re Rishi Sunak, is that he might just be handing Keir Starmer a weapon that he desperately needs.
Now try this
This week I mainly listened to Ludwig Göransson’s wonderful score Oppenheimer while writing my column. Göransson gave a fascinating interview about the soundtrack and his creative process to Curzon Cinemas’ in-house magazine, which you can read here.
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