US start-up failures up by 60% despite AI funding frenzy

Good morning. We start the week with updates from the war in Ukraine, Kamala Harris’s presidential campaign, and a preview of what to expect at this week’s gathering of top central bankers in Jackson Hole, Wyoming.

But first we turn our attention to a worrying rise in US start-up failures, which have jumped 60 per cent over the past year.

Data from Carta shows 254 of its venture-backed clients went bust in the first quarter of this year, with the rate of bankruptcies today more than seven times higher than when it began tracking failures in 2019.

Millions of jobs in venture-backed companies are at risk, risking spillover to the wider economy. Despite billions of dollars gushing into artificial intelligence outfits including from big-name investors, here’s why founders are running out of cash.

Here’s what I’m keeping tabs on today:

• Blinken in Israel: The US secretary of state will meet Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu before talks over a Gaza ceasefire deal resume, after an Israeli air strike killed 10 people in Lebanon.

• Germany: The Bundesbank, CEPR and others start a two-day conference in Frankfurt on regulating financial markets.

• US presidential race: The Democratic National Convention kicks off in Chicago, featuring speeches by Kamala Harris, Joe Biden, Barack Obama and Bill Clinton this week. We have more on the challenges facing the vice-president below.

In the latest edition of our US Election Countdown newsletter, the FT’s reporters discuss what they’re looking out for as they cover tonight’s DNC on the ground in Chicago. Sign up for the newsletter here.

Five more top stories

1. Exclusive: The Securities and Exchange Commission has been accused of censorship after forcing an academic to delay publication of a paper for nine months. The research, based on three years of interviews, highlighted criticism of the US audit regulator overseen by the SEC. Here are more details.

2. Ukraine is blowing up bridges to consolidate its positions in Russia’s border region of Kursk as the Kremlin struggles to muster the forces to push them out. Kyiv published videos over the weekend showing two bridges across the river Seym being destroyed, which analysts said would hamper Russian military logistics. Here’s the latest from the frontline.

• Ukraine incursion: Russia has been slow in redeploying troops to repel Kyiv’s offensive in Kursk, instead cobbling together units that include young and reluctant conscripts.

3. Democrats rushed to defend Kamala Harris’s poorly received economic plans over the weekend. The vice-president’s pledges to ban price gouging and offer new tax relief for families and homebuyers, which were unveiled at a campaign event on Friday, were met with criticism that they were “populist gimmicks” that would fail to tackle inflation.

4. A top Federal Reserve official has backed gradual interest rate cuts ahead of an annual meeting of the world’s top central bankers in Jackson Hole, Wyoming this week. Mary Daly, president of the San Francisco Fed, told the Financial Times that recent data had given her “more confidence” that inflation was under control.

• Jackson Hole: Investors will be closely watching the Fed’s yearly gathering this week for clues about the timing of rate cuts. Here’s what to expect.

• Opinion: The US central bank’s next strategic review needs to look at shadow banking and the risks of sudden capital outflows, writes economist Rebecca Patterson.

5. More than half of Fortune 500 companies see artificial intelligence as a potential risk to their business, according to a new survey of corporate filings, a striking jump from just 9 per cent in 2022. By contrast, only 33 of the 108 that specifically discussed generative AI saw it as an opportunity. Here’s which industries are the most worried.

The Big Read

US Democrats meet tonight for their party’s convention after rapidly rallying around a new presidential candidate. So far, their wager on Kamala Harris seems to have worked. The vice-president has caught up with Donald Trump, eclipsing the Republican nominee in some polls and raking in contributions from donors. But the second phase of her campaign will soon begin as she battles to keep the surge of support alive — and the hurdles are far bigger.

We’re also reading . . . 

• US military: As high-tech start-ups discover an appetite for the defence sector, America’s new military-civil fusion holds both rewards and risks, writes John Thornhill.

• UK prisons: Britain’s new Labour government has inherited a dilemma: curb the country’s ever-longer sentencing mindset or find more jail space.

• Hungarian births: Despite spending more than 5 per cent of GDP annually on lavish family subsidies, Budapest has failed to spur a baby boom. Here’s why.

• Italian politics: A mural of a gold-winning Olympian born to African migrants was vandalised, sparking a heated debate in Rome over naturalising the children of immigrants.

Chart of the day

Western airlines are slashing flights to China as a combination of low demand and the high cost of flying around Russian airspace saps their ability to compete with local carriers.

Take a break from the news

The longlist for the FT and Schroders Business Book of the Year is here. We filtered and reviewed more than 600 entries to bring you this list of 16 vying to be judged the “most compelling and enjoyable” business book of 2024. From Donald Trump’s finances and Bill Gates’ influence to the challenges of AI, here are the titles still in the running.

Additional contributions from Sophie Spiegelberger