Hopes for a return to democracy in Venezuela are dwindling as authoritarian President Nicolás Maduro gains greater regional recognition, frustrating US and EU efforts to pressure him to negotiate free and fair elections. Maduro, who survived years of Western ostracism by turning to China, Russia, Turkey, and Iran and avoiding sanctions by sending oil shipments to East Asia through middlemen, has gained confidence after addressing South American leaders at a recent summit hosted by Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. Maduro boasts that his revolutionary socialist party has won 27 out of 29 presidential, parliamentary, and local elections during his 24-year rule, and his government has increased state coffers by encouraging illegal gold mining and taking a cut from drug traffickers. The International Criminal Court is investigating Maduro for possible crimes against humanity, and he faces narcoterrorism charges with a US$15 million bounty but secured bilateral meetings in Brasilia with leftist leaders in Argentina and Colombia, as well as with Lula.
The EU had hoped to exploit Maduro’s desire for greater legitimacy by dangling the prospect of an EU observer mission for next year’s elections, but diplomats in Brussels admit they will not be able to continue if Caracas fails to make even minimal political concessions. “The window of opportunity could be closing soon,” said a senior EU diplomat. “It’s a matter of months.” The Biden administration moved away from a failed Trump-era strategy of “maximum pressure” sanctions aimed at forcing regime change in Caracas last year, allowed Chevron to restart limited oil exports from the country, and followed up with a preliminary agreement between the Maduro government and the opposition in Norwegian-brokered talks that $3 billion in frozen Venezuelan funds held in the west should be spent on humanitarian projects. But six months later, funds have still not been released, talks have not resumed, and time is running out for negotiations that could improve the chances of a free presidential election next year. Maduro feels no pressure to sit down with the opposition and negotiate the terms of the election.
Despite political repression and economic mismanagement in Venezuela which sparked the exodus of seven million refugees, only Chile’s left-wing leader, and Uruguay’s conservative president raised concerns about rights abuses in Venezuela, remarks that Maduro quickly brushed off. A Brazilian diplomat said Lula had privately raised the issue of the Venezuelan elections with Maduro, and he publicly offered Maduro an uncritical endorsement, adding: “I think Venezuela should show its own narrative so that it can change people’s minds.” Thomas Shannon, a former senior US State Department diplomat who is now an adviser to Washington law firm Arnold & Porter, said Lula had “really undermined the approach of the Biden administration- which could have had some success – by convincing Maduro that he has nothing to give the opposition.”
In conclusion, the hopes of a return to democracy in Venezuela are dwindling as authoritarian President Nicolás Maduro gains greater regional recognition, frustrating US and EU efforts to pressure him to negotiate free and fair elections. Despite accusations of human rights violations and economic mismanagement which sparked the exodus of seven million refugees, none of the leaders except Chile and Uruguay raised concerns about rights abuses in Venezuela. A Brazilian diplomat said Lula had privately raised the issue of the Venezuelan elections with Maduro, and he publicly offered Maduro an uncritical endorsement, adding: “I think Venezuela should show its narrative.” The engagement with Maduro is essential because he has no intention of going anywhere but must generate incentives for the Venezuelan authorities to move forward in a democratic process. “The last thing the Venezuelan people need is Maduro’s profile to be raised,” said Tamara Taraciuk Broner, Venezuelan expert at the Inter-American Dialogue in Washington. “Maduro has his own narrative about what is happening and Lula… gave this narrative more resonance.”
Additional Piece:
The situation in Venezuela appears to be worsening as authoritarian Nicolas Maduro maintains his grip on power, and efforts to establish free and fair elections are being stymied. The fact that regional leaders are recognizing and engaging with Maduro is certainly not aiding the situation. The reality is that the Venezuelan people are caught in the middle and are experiencing the fallout from the political and economic instability. The Venezuelan government must prioritize the needs of its citizens and establish clear economic policies that will help the country recover from its current crisis. The international community, including the US and the EU, should use their diplomatic and economic leverage to exert pressure on Maduro’s regime to prioritize the needs of its people. Although international efforts have failed to sway Maduro in the past, it’s essential to keep engaging him and looking for political solutions. Ultimately, the situation in Venezuela could be a bellwether for democracy in the region, and it’s crucial not to give up on the Venezuelan people and their ongoing struggle for democracy and freedom.
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Hopes for a return to democracy in Venezuela are fading as authoritarian President Nicolás Maduro gains greater regional recognition, frustrating US and EU efforts to pressure him to negotiate free and fair elections for the next year.
After years of isolation following his disputed 2018 election victory, an increasingly triumphant Maduro was in the diplomatic spotlight at a South American summit last week hosted by Brazil’s leftist President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva.
Maduro told fellow presidents that his country had survived an onslaught from the United States under former President Donald Trump that was “more brutal than [Russia’s] attack on Ukraine”. He cited “900 sanctions and measures against the whole economy” alongside assassination attempts, threats of military invasion and international isolation.
“And here we are, resilient and forward-looking,” he concluded, after boasting that his revolutionary socialist party had won 27 out of 29 presidential, parliamentary and local elections during his 24-year rule. uninterrupted.
Standing next to Maduro, Lula offered him an uncritical endorsement and spoke of “a narrative that was built against Venezuela“, adding: “I think Venezuela should show its own narrative so that it can really change people’s minds. ”
Thomas Shannon, a former senior US State Department diplomat who is now an adviser to Washington law firm Arnold & Porter, said Lula had “really undermined the approach of the Biden administration – which could have had a some success – by convincing Maduro that he has nothing to give the opposition”.
Maduro faces an investigation by the International Criminal Court for possible crimes against humanity and has a US$15 million bounty head on narcoterrorism charges. However, he also secured bilateral meetings in Brasilia with leftist leaders in Argentina and Colombia, as well as with Lula.
None of them publicly criticized the political repression and economic mismanagement in Venezuela that sparked the exodus of 7 million refugees. Only Chile’s left-wing leader and Uruguay’s conservative president raised concerns about rights abuses in Venezuela, remarks that Maduro quickly brushed off.
A Brazilian diplomat said Lula had privately raised the issue of the Venezuelan elections with Maduro. “The important thing was to bring these presidents together,” he said. “For years we had a situation where some refused to be in the same room as others.”
The Biden administration last year moved away from a failed Trump-era strategy of “maximum pressure” sanctions aimed at forcing regime change in Caracas. In November, he allowed Chevron to restart limited oil exports from the country, a move intended to entice Maduro to reopen talks with the opposition.
The US concession follows a preliminary agreement between the Maduro government and the opposition in Norwegian-brokered talks that $3 billion in frozen Venezuelan funds held in the west should be spent on humanitarian projects.
But six months later, funds have still not been released, talks have not resumed and time is running out for negotiations that could improve the chances of a free presidential election next year.
No date has been set for the vote, but with the opposition routed Maduro hinted he could advance the ballot.
“Maduro feels no pressure to sit down with the opposition and negotiate the terms of the election,” said Ryan Berg, director of the Americas program at the CSIS think tank in Washington. “Even less, now that the region is regrouping around him.”
Maduro survived years of Western ostracism by turning to China, Russia, Turkey and Iran and avoiding sanctions by sending oil shipments to East Asia through middlemen. US officials say his government has increased state coffers by encouraging illegal gold mining in the Amazon rainforest and taking a cut from drug traffickers.
Venezuela has taken a turn towards the free market in recent years, allowing greater use of the US dollar and dismantling some state controls. The IMF said Venezuela’s gross domestic product rose 8% last year and would rise another 5% this year, albeit from a very low base.
The EU had hoped to exploit Maduro’s desire for greater legitimacy by dangling the prospect of an EU observer mission for next year’s elections. But diplomats in Brussels admit they will not be able to continue if Caracas fails to make even minimal political concessions.
“The window of opportunity could be closing soon,” said a senior EU diplomat. “It’s a matter of months.”
The difficulty for the United States and the EU is that after the failure of Trump-era sanctions and Western attempts to recognize an alternative government led by former Congress President Juan Guaidóthey have few options left.
“The engagement with Maduro is important because he has no intention of going anywhere,” said Tamara Taraciuk Broner, Venezuelan expert at the Inter-American Dialogue in Washington. “But this commitment cannot be free, it must generate incentives for the Venezuelan authorities to move forward in a democratic process.”
“The last thing the Venezuelan people need is Maduro’s profile to be raised,” she added. “Maduro has his own narrative about what is happening and Lula. . . gave this narrative more resonance.
Additional reporting by Michael Pooler in São Paulo
https://www.ft.com/content/df3ea5a2-743d-41bc-8670-2527d67f92a3
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