Stay informed with free updates
Simply register on the War in Ukraine myFT Digest – delivered straight to your inbox.
The author is European Commissioner for Energy.
While most Europeans continue to enjoy the warm summer weather, the cold winter months ahead may seem like a distant thought. However, the coming winter is likely to test the resilience of the Ukrainian people in a way not seen on our continent since World War II. Following its full-scale invasion in February 2022, Russia has targeted Ukraine’s energy infrastructure with massive airstrikes, captured energy facilities, such as the Zaporizhia nuclear power plant, and destroyed power transmission lines.
In recent months, attacks on civilian energy infrastructure have increased in nature and intensity, destroying power generation plants, heating districts, backup generators and storage sites. The use of energy as a weapon in this way is unprecedented in modern conflicts.
While Ukraine’s energy workers repair damage and restart lines, many facilities have been attacked and destroyed again, making reconstruction a Herculean effort. To date, Russia has destroyed or captured around 9 GW of Ukraine’s electricity production. This is half of the electricity Ukraine needs in winter and represents the equivalent of the peak electricity consumption of Portugal, a country with more than 10 million inhabitants.
Ukraine’s electricity production deficit has forced the government to introduce rolling blackouts across the country. In some cities, households have access to electricity for only a few hours a day, which greatly disrupts their daily lives.
The warmer months hide the worst impact. Without electricity, basic services are inaccessible: water pumps and sewage networks will not work and heating will not function. In winter, with freezing temperatures, some places in Ukraine may become simply uninhabitable. The elderly, children and vulnerable sections of the population will be hit hardest. Where electricity demand is already on the verge of collapse, some areas may collapse under the weight of the additional demand from displaced people. With a drop in economic activity, tax revenues will fall, widening Ukraine’s budget deficit and diminishing its ability to sustain the national struggle for freedom. The risk of a humanitarian catastrophe is high.
The Ukrainian administration is struggling valiantly to cope with this situation. The EU, together with the international community, has been supporting Ukraine in every possible way in repairing and rebuilding the energy sector. The G7 has provided a focal point for coordination. Regular conferences on the reconstruction of Ukraine have brought the issue into focus. The EU has mobilised, in partnership with the energy community, €500 million for assistance in the energy sector. The EU Civil Protection Mechanism has provided in-kind assistance, including more than 8,000 generators and more than 3,300 transformers. European operators are supplying electricity.
But the international community must do much more. To avoid a humanitarian disaster in Ukraine, we must now step up an unprecedented logistical and relief effort.
I call for action in six areas. First, wherever possible, damaged electricity and heating generation facilities must be repaired and reactivated. Second, as many small-scale decentralised generators as possible that can be put into operation quickly must be moved to Ukraine. Third, rooftop solar photovoltaic systems must be installed as soon as possible to ensure electricity supply to hospitals, schools, and public and residential buildings. Decentralised electricity generation is less exposed to Russian attacks. Fourth, the maximum volume of electricity that can be exported to Ukraine from elsewhere in Europe must be gradually expanded. Fifth, interconnection capacity at borders must be expanded. And finally, passive defence of energy infrastructure and air defence around critical facilities must be strengthened. A coordinated and well-targeted effort can go a long way towards bridging the gap.
Governments and businesses can donate to the Ukraine Energy Support Fund, managed by the energy community. This is the fastest and most reliable way to procure energy equipment for Ukraine. The EU Civil Protection Mechanism can supply spare parts and used equipment that fits Ukraine’s needs. Multilateral banks can help reduce project risk by supporting insurance and guarantees. Businesses can help train workers in Ukraine or install equipment, such as photovoltaics and inverters, on site. Citizens can help through crowdfunding.
I urge all those who have the opportunity to help Ukraine before the cold season sets in to do so. The European Commission will help to ensure that its support is delivered. An unprecedented effort of solidarity and generosity is needed today. Ukraine must not be left alone as it prepares for its most difficult winter yet.