In this week’s ‘UK Property Market Stats Show’ for week ending Sunday, 15th December 2024, myself and this week’s special guest, Toby Phillips (Boss of Martin & Co and the experience brands), discuss the property market headlines for Week 50 of 2024.
The main headlines:
· Listings (New properties coming on to the market) – 17k UK listings this week (week 50), an expected drop of 4k listings from last week. 8.5% higher 2024 YTD than 2023 YTD and 7.4% higher than the average of 2017/18/19.
· % of Resi Sales Stock being reduced (Monthly): 11.1% of Resi sales stock was reduced in the last month (November). 13% in October & 14% in September. Not brilliant as Stock levels are dropping in the usual run up to Christmas.
· Total Gross Sales – 19.1k UK homes sold stc this week (Week 50), 21% higher than the same standalone week (week 50) in 2023. Also, 9.1% higher than 2017/18/19 YTD levels & 15.4% higher than 2023 YTD levels.
· Sale Thru rate (Monthly): UK Estate Agents sold 14.9% of their Resi sales stock last month. 2024 average is 15.7% & the 7 year long term average is 17.9% per month – yet don’t forget that was only in mid/late 20%’s in the crazy years of 20/21/22).
· Sale fall-throughs – For the week 50, Sale Fall Thrus (as a % of Gross Sales Agreed) 25.1%. The 7 year Long Term weekly Average is 24.3% and it was 40%+ in the two months following the Truss Budget in the Autumn of 2022.
· Net Sales – 14.3k this week (average for last 4 weeks 16.2k). 20% higher than the same week 50 in 2023, 43% higher than the same week 50 in 2022 & still 17.5% higher YTD in 2024 compared to YTD 2023.
· % of Homes exchanging vs homes unsold – Of the 1,513,570 UK homes that left UK Estate Agents books since the 1st Jan 2024, 813,063 of them (53.7%) exchanged & completed contracts (meaning the homeowner moved and the estate agent got paid). The remaining 700,507 (46.3%) were withdrawn off the market, unsold. In essence you a flip of the coin chance of actually selling, homeowners moving and the estate agent getting paid.
· UK House Prices – As explained in the show, the £/sqft figure foretells and predicts the Land Registry 5 / 6 months in advance with an accuracy rating of 92%. The Initial November figure, in this important metric, is £344/sq.ft. In January ’24, it was £330/sqft, a rise of 4% in the last 10 months (and for comparison) in August ’24, it was £334/sq.ft.
· Resi Sales Stock on the Market (Monthly Stat) : 677k at end of November. For comparison, Nov ’23 – 664k, Nov ’22 – 527k, Nov ’21 – 397k, Nov ’20 – 617k, Nov ’19 – 608k.
· Resi Sales Sold STC Pipeline (Units) (Monthly Stat): 487k at end of November. For comparison, Nov ’23 – 391k, Nov ’22 – 436k, Nov ’21 – 509k, Nov ’20 – 533k, Nov ’19 – 353k.
Local Focus this week – Halifax