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It is hard not to see Fumio Kishida’s decision not to run for another term as Japan’s prime minister as a reflection of Joe Biden’s withdrawal from the US presidential election. Both men were struggling to win over public opinion, hampering their party’s electoral prospects and limiting their ability to govern. Japan being a country where stoic attention to duty counts for much, Kishida He left in silence and of their own free will.
Leave behind a modest political legacyOn economic matters, despite his rhetoric, Kishida offered more continuity than change. policies of his predecessor, Shinzo Abe. Fiscal and monetary policy were lax. Japan imported inflation from the rest of the world, at the cost of an extremely weak yen that weighed on living standards.
Internationally, free from Abe’s strident nationalism, Kishida Japan managed to improve relations with its neighborhood, aided by a conservative prime minister in Seoul and a leadership in Beijing with more important matters to worry about. On defense, Kishida moved Japan away from pacifism and toward active military cooperation with the United States; he raised defense spending to 1.6 percent of the economy, a significant shift, though his successor will have to find the resources to sustain it.
The biggest change under Kishida’s rule came in Japanese politics itself. His tenure was marred by a complicated and protracted scandal over political financingwhich ultimately led to the dissolution of almost all old-school factions within his ruling Liberal Democratic Party, the downfall of several senior politicians, and widespread discontent among the Japanese public with business as usual. The consequence is an unusually open election to succeed Kishida as LDP leader and thus as prime minister.
In other circumstances, that might provoke a battle of ideas, but Japan’s challenges — its large public debt, its aging population and its hostile neighborhood — mean there is little scope for drastic policy changes. Now that inflation is within target and interest rates are rising, the next prime minister will have to restore fiscal discipline, but not so quickly as to crush the economy. They will have to maintain the alliance with the United States, possibly with a recalcitrant Donald Trump back in the White House. Politically, they will have to fight and win a general election, which must be held no later than October 2025.
Above all, Japan’s leader needs to project hope, optimism and confidence in the face of these great challenges. Junichiro Koizumi and Abe, the last two Japanese prime ministers to hold out, found a way to do this. Kishida never managed. To give the next prime minister the best possible chance, it is vital that the leadership election be a broad public audition and not a backstage showdown. In the wake of the funding scandal, Japan needs more than a weak leader beholden to party leaders.
There are a number of credible candidates, including former Abe protégés such as Toshimitsu Motegi and Katsunobu Kato; experienced ministers with an independent streak such as Taro Kono and Shigeru Ishiba; or Sanae Takaichi, the standard-bearer of the LDP’s right wing, who would become Japan’s first female prime minister. But the most interesting possibility is generational change. Two potential candidates – Shinjiro Koizumi, Junichiro’s son, and Takayuki Kobayashi – are in their 40s and would be the youngest postwar prime ministers. If they think they can run their own campaign and win without making too many promises in exchange for votes, they should put their names forward.
Kishida had the virtues and flaws of a traditional LDP prime minister. The next leader has the opportunity to break the mould.