Given these real and growing risks to human flourishing, there is hardly time to be wiser. Looking into this future is like “looking down the railroad tracks and seeing that little light,” according to experienced scientist Bob Perry. When he talks to skeptics, he says: “We all know the train is coming. For God’s sake, we have to get off the track.” There are many things that Charleston could do to be prepared for the moment the train rolls by. “We’re leaving and we’re not coming back,” Perry says. He is talking about Charleston.
Imagine if planning for in reality a carefully organized departure from the waterfront of the Charleston region was taking place. There would be an announcement that over the next 10 years, say, a series of incentives that allow a modest but fair return on their investments in their homes would encourage people to move. These announcements would be accompanied by frank and clear disclosures about the high-risk nature of these areas.
At this time, it is very difficult for ordinary consumers to get access to good data on the risk profile of individual residential properties. The City of East Hampton, New York issued a report in mid-2022 making it clear that, absent extraordinary and extremely costly protection efforts, by 2070 the city would be transformed “into a series of islands” due to rapidly increasing pollution. sea level. It’s hard to imagine Charleston posting similar information.
Relocation packages would be created; a series of credit levers and government taxes would incentivize the construction of new housing in safer areas. These new residential districts would be dense, well served by public transportation, and would include a large number of truly affordable homes. The land left behind once residents leave voluntarily will become protected wetlands and parks, the very things that will help curb flooding inland. It is very difficult to persuade someone to leave their home if you believe their land will be appropriated and developed for profit the moment they leave and not allowed back into the protective marshes.
Policymakers would also announce that after the first 10 years, the incentives would be lower, perhaps much lower, to encourage early decision-making. Coastal regions like Charleston (and many other places) would need to pay much more attention to meaningfully engaging with communities, including faith-based groups and non-profit organizations, not just seeking buy-in for existing plans or placating the groups presenting non-opposition member leaders of those communities. This planning will require genuine partnerships charged with creating funded plans that recognize the equity and environmental justice issues involved in relocation. Until now, strategic relocation has been piecemeal, carried out by small towns acting alone.
We urgently need to shift to strategic efforts that include socio-cultural and physical factors and involve the entire country. As Professor AR Siders of the University of Delaware, a leading scholar in the emerging field of strategic relocation, says, “A substantial amount of innovation and work, both in research and practice, will need to be done to create strategic strategies. [relocation] an efficient and equitable adaptation option at scale”. We need to pay attention to the social costs of displacement and plan ahead to avoid cruelty and harm. What we really need is federal leadership and national planning, and funding, for withdrawal from the coastal regions. Alice Hill of the Council on Foreign Relations believes we need a national adaptation plan: “A national plan would help, at the very least, prioritize our federal investments. We will send signals to state and local governments and the private sector about where we are going to make sure we are building resiliency and areas where it may no longer be profitable for the federal government to be involved.” We need, she says, “to measure our progress” as well. “Should we invest in renovating the beach, or build a boardwalk, or help these communities relocate completely? Without a national adaptation plan, it is very difficult to do that.”