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First we had the “red wall”, then the “blue wall” and now the “turquoise wall”, the only one that Nigel Farage promises to erect for its reform in the United Kingdom party in traditional work areas. The electoral turbulence in Great Britain is marked by analysts who reproduce the political map. But these broad descriptions of brushes hide complexity, and the challenge for work of trying to attract voters who are willing to change loyalty. It also throws intriguing policies dilemmas.
Thursday’s local elections could increase the nerves already high. Many of the voters who supported the work in the July general elections have cooled towards the party that are spending great energies reflecting on how to tempt them, especially those attacked by reform UK.
However, these “curious reformist” voters could be difficult to retain without repelling others. And it is even more a challenge of what some of the most raw stereotypes suggest. A purely “Faragist” agenda is not its taste, according to Steve Akehurst in the Persuassion UK research initiative, who commissioned surveys and focal groups to discover what makes them work.
The concern for immigration is the main problem prioritized by both the central supporters of Farage and for the actually hesitation or change of former Labor Voters, particularly small boats and asylum hotels. But although this confirms that Downing Street is right when worrying about reform attacks on the agenda, Akehurst’s research plays significant differences in other issues.
Labor hesitation showed a minimum interest in the attacks of the reform against the net zero objective, for example, even when asked about energy costs. While 63 percent of those who voted for the reform in 2024 opposed zero, 60 percent of reform work voters in the survey were in favor.
With the risk that it will take off even more to the left of the 2024 Labor Winner coalition, Akehurst argues that it is a “free success” to maintain the impulse in the green energy agenda, keeping both loam games on the side. He marks a finding that exploits a series of stereotypes of the red wall: three to four times more Labor voters in these parts of Midlands and the north of England are in danger of being tempted by the others Centrist Libs as those classified as a curious reform, he says (the green are increasing in other places).
The investigation was worried among these voters in other aspects of the reform. They like Farage but does not like their friendship with the president of the United States, Donald Trump, and their position on Ukraine, and they wonder if their party is completely respectable. “In focal groups, people fight within their own minds about whether the reform is fine or a bit extreme,” says Akehurst. Sixteen percent care about racist nuances.
Offering more hope to labor parliamentarians, there are also signs in persuasion data (see graph) that the anti -Faage tactical vote could boost their party support: enough voters in the areas of the red wall could decide to support the owner explicitly to maintain the reform outside, even conservatives seem to be willing to do so.
With some arguing a launch to the reformed voters who (something comically) have been called “forced workers”, these ideas contain a timely warning. The left flank of the party is boiling with discontent, but receives less attention in Westminster while parliamentarians and the Parkiks are obsessed with Farage. It is possible to keep these discontent votes happy while appealing to the reform-corner, but will require a careful combination of policies. Both groups seem to be equally attracted to a traditional labor argument on the support of public -funded public services (this is not true for the central support of the reform, see graph).
Unfortunately for a government whose spending options are so limited, there is one more thing than the left work flank and those tempted by the reform have in common: they are repelled by anything that resembles austerity. And that is the real dilemma of work.