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Why Venture Capitalists Are Doomed if They Don’t Abandon the Winner-Take-All Investment Strategy

How Startups Can Succeed in Capturing Market Share and Attracting Venture Capital

Introduction

In the world of startups, venture capital is often seen as the lifeblood that fuels growth and success. However, there is a common belief that in order to secure investment, a startup must have the potential to capture the majority of market share in its category. This article challenges that notion and explores how startups can succeed in attracting venture capital without necessarily dominating the market.

The Potential of Emerging Industries

Thumbtack, a home services startup, is a prime example of a company that has defied conventional wisdom. Despite being 15 years old and valued at $3.1 billion, Thumbtack’s co-founder and CEO, Marco Zappacosta, believes that the home services industry is still in its early stages of adoption. He points out that less than 10% of the industry has transitioned to booking home services online through platforms like Thumbtack.

Zappacosta’s statement highlights an important fact – startups don’t always need to capture the vast majority of market share to be successful. In emerging industries or those undergoing significant technological shifts, even a small percentage of the market can turn a startup into a multi-billion dollar business. Thumbtack shares this 10% figure with other players in the space, such as TaskRabbit, Angie’s List, and Jiffy, indicating the immense potential for growth and profitability in the home services sector.

The Power of Multiple Winners in Established Categories

It is not only in emerging industries that startups can thrive without monopolizing the market. Established categories, such as travel and credit cards, often see multiple winners coexisting. In the travel sector, for example, companies like Booking.com, Trivago, and Kayak all have their share of the market. Similarly, Visa and Mastercard dominate the credit card industry.

This phenomenon challenges the notion that a startup must beat out all competitors to win investment. Investors recognize that in many cases, markets can support multiple successful players. It’s not about capturing the entire market share, but rather carving out a significant portion and delivering value to customers.

Even in markets with seemingly dominant players, there is room for competition. Spotify, often seen as the clear winner in the music streaming category, holds only 31% of the global streaming market. This leaves ample market share for competitors like Apple Music, Tidal, Deezer, Pandora, and SoundCloud. The coexistence of these players demonstrates that even in seemingly saturated markets, startups can find success by offering unique features, targeting specific niches, or providing better user experiences.

The Importance of Market Size

While many markets can support multiple winners, there are some exceptions. Niche markets, like rare blood disease treatments, may not be large enough to accommodate numerous successful players. However, most markets have sufficient size and demand to sustain competition and attract investment.

Investors are often attracted to startups operating in large, growing markets. These markets offer the potential for significant returns, making them more attractive investment opportunities. Startups that can demonstrate scalability and tap into these markets can increase their chances of securing venture capital funding.

For example, the healthcare sector is a massive market with numerous opportunities for startups. With the increasing demand for digital health solutions, companies like Teladoc, Livongo, and Amwell have capitalized on the growing telehealth market. These companies have not only secured significant funding but have also seen their market value soar as they leverage technology to transform the healthcare industry.

Expanding on the Topic: The Role of Innovation and Differentiation

To further understand how startups can succeed in attracting venture capital without capturing the majority of market share, it is crucial to explore the role of innovation and differentiation. Startups that can offer unique solutions, disrupt traditional industries, or solve pain points for customers have a higher chance of standing out and attracting investment.

Take the example of Airbnb, a disruptor in the hospitality industry. Despite entering a market dominated by established players like hotels and vacation rentals, Airbnb differentiated itself by offering a unique and personalized accommodation experience. Its innovative platform allowed individuals to rent out their spare rooms or entire homes, giving travelers more options and a more local experience. This innovative approach not only won the hearts of customers but also caught the attention of investors. Today, Airbnb is valued at billions of dollars and has become synonymous with the sharing economy.

Practical Examples and Anecdotes

Examining specific sectors can provide further insights into how startups have succeeded in attracting venture capital without dominating the market. Let’s explore the e-commerce industry, for instance. While Amazon reigns supreme as the online retail giant, there are numerous niche e-commerce startups that have carved out their own profitable spaces. Companies like Warby Parker in eyewear, Glossier in beauty, and Casper in mattresses have disrupted their respective industries by focusing on specific customer segments, delivering superior products, or providing exceptional customer experiences. These startups have grown rapidly and attracted significant funding, even though they have not captured the majority of market share.

Another example is the food delivery sector, which has seen explosive growth in recent years. While giants like DoorDash, Uber Eats, and Grubhub dominate the market, there are still opportunities for smaller players to thrive. Startups like GoPuff, which focuses on delivering convenience store items, or Instacart, which specializes in grocery delivery, have found success by targeting specific niches within the broader market.

The Shift in Investor Sentiment

In recent years, there has been a shift in investor sentiment towards startups that are focused on profitability rather than just market share. This change can be attributed to several factors, including the increased scrutiny of business models and the desire for sustainable growth. Investors are now prioritizing startups with clear paths to profitability, strong unit economics, and a focus on customer acquisition and retention.

For example, companies like Uber and WeWork, which were once lauded for their market dominance and growth potential, faced significant challenges due to their unsustainable business models. Investors have become more cautious and now value startups that can demonstrate a path to profitability and scalable operations.

In Conclusion

Contrary to popular belief, startups do not always need to capture the vast majority of market share to attract venture capital. Emerging industries and markets with multiple winners offer ample opportunities for startups to succeed. By focusing on innovation, differentiation, scalability, and profitability, startups can carve out their own space and secure funding from investors who recognize their potential for growth and profitability.

Summary:

Startups can succeed in attracting venture capital without dominating the market share. In emerging industries or those experiencing technological shifts, even a small percentage of the market can yield significant profits. Established categories often have multiple winners, and investors are aware that markets can support several successful companies. Market size is a crucial factor, with larger markets offering more attractive investment opportunities. Innovation and differentiation play a pivotal role, with startups that offer unique solutions or disrupt traditional industries standing out. Practical examples, such as niche e-commerce and specialized food delivery startups, illustrate how companies can thrive without capturing the majority of market share. Investor sentiment has shifted towards profitability, with a focus on sustainable growth and clear paths to profitability. Overall, startups can secure venture capital by demonstrating scalability, profitability, and the ability to tap into growing markets.

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Venture capital is the business of hitting home runs. But does a startup need to have the potential to capture the vast majority of market share in its category to win investment? I do not think.

A few weeks ago, Thumbtack co-founder and CEO Marco Zappacosta introduced himself Found Podcast from TechCrunch to talk about building your home services startup. I asked what would be next for Thumbtack, considering the startup is 15 years old and was last valued at $3.1 billion. I thought he might talk about a possible exit, but his answer surprised me.

“For our industry, [the adoption of booking home services online on a platform like Thumbtack] is less than 10%. We are still in the early days of this type of transition in evolution. I think people don’t appreciate how big this category can and will be,” Zappacosta said. “It also speaks to what we’re still trying to do, because we think we’re still early days in this whole sector.”

Thumbtack shares that 10% figure with a handful of other players in the space, including TaskRabbit, Angie’s List, and other startups like Jiffy. In home services, a company only needs to capture a few percentage points of the overall market share to be a multi-billion dollar business.

If you think about it, most established categories look more like a handful of winners than just one. In the travel sector, there is Booking.com, Trivago and Kayak. Even established categories like credit cards see Visa and Mastercard dominating the market.

Even markets with one seemingly dominant player can support multiple winners. In music streaming, Spotify looks like the clear winner in its category, but only has 31% of the global streaming market: That’s significant, but there’s still a fair amount of market share left for its competitors like Apple Music, Tidal, Deezer, Pandora, and SoundCloud. And while some markets like rare blood disease treatments may not be large enough to support numerous successful players, most do.

VCs should give up on the winner-takes-all approach to investing


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