Brexit and the Lost Dreams of Free-Market Conservatives
In the aftermath of Brexit, pro-Leave politicians have found themselves dealing with unexpected consequences. Free-market conservatives who advocated for Brexit initially believed that leaving the EU would lead to a less statist UK with lower taxes and less regulation. However, the reality has been far different, with higher taxes and more state intervention, leaving conservatives bereft and looking back wistfully at the liberal dream of Brexit.
The Lost Conservative Party
In an article for The Telegraph, Daniel Hannan, a prominent figure in the Brexit movement, expressed his disappointment with the outcome of Brexit. Hannan was one of the thoughtful Brexiteers who believed that leaving the EU meant more freedom, but the reality is that Brexit has led to more regulations and state intervention, which is contrary to his ideology.
The Conservative Party has always been an amalgamation of economic liberals, social conservatives, and metropolitan Tories. Economic and social liberals aligned before Brexit, but the vote tore that coalition apart, leaving the party without an economic vision. The Free-market Leavers’ alliance with the populists who were suspicious of big business and passionate about the culture wars and a more interventionist state alienated those who previously shared their economic values.
The Fallout of Bad Trade Deal
The bad trade deal that came out of Brexit has left the UK’s major service industries and wealthy southern voters with the short end of the stick. But even when Liz Truss used her only party conference speech to rail against the ‘anti-growth coalition,’ she didn’t realize that she was sitting across from the ranks of Nimby, immigration hawks, and culture warriors who hate the city. The Conservative Party’s center of gravity has shifted to meet a new target audience – socially conservative and economically leftist – leaving free-market conservatives in the cold.
The View of Free-market Conservatives
Free-market conservatives have lost the Brexit dream they had hoped to realize, and perhaps they have even lost their party. But the Europhile establishment hasn’t stolen it from them; they traded it for another bad Brexit deal. The world has changed, with free trade, globalization, and cooperation making way for competing power blocs. The center of gravity and the electoral calculations of the Conservative Party have shifted, and they can no longer rely on their previous economic model.
Summary
Brexit has led to unexpected consequences for free-market conservatives, who believed leaving the EU would result in a less statist UK with lower taxes and less regulation. However, the reality has been the opposite, with higher taxes, more state intervention, and regulations making the conservative dream of Brexit a nightmare. The Conservative Party has always been an amalgamation of economic liberals, social conservatives, and metropolitan Tories. Economic and social liberals aligned before Brexit, but the vote tore that coalition apart. The bad trade deal that came out of Brexit has left the free-market conservatives alienated, leaving the Conservative Party with no clear economic vision in a politically charged environment.
Additional Piece
Brexit and the Risks of Separation
Brexit has been one of the most significant and divisive issues in recent British history, and its outcomes have been uncertain. Brexit supporters hoped that leaving the EU would bring back the glory days of Great Britain and allow the country to achieve greater autonomy. However, the reality has been more complicated.
Brexit has put at risk the United Kingdom’s very existence. It has reignited calls for Scottish independence, and the Irish border issue has caused tension between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland. Brexit has also upended trade deals and made many British businesses wary of staying in the UK. The pandemic and the resulting economic downturn have exacerbated the situation, with many businesses struggling to stay afloat.
Brexit is also causing a brain drain, with many young British elites choosing to leave the UK for better opportunities elsewhere. The UK may find it difficult to compete in the global economy if it cannot retain its best and brightest.
The Future of Britain
Britain’s future remains uncertain. The challenges posed by Brexit require a cohesive plan that considers the needs of all parties. It is essential to find a way to reconcile the economic and social divide that has emerged in recent years. The UK needs to build consensus and recognize that its values and priorities may evolve over time. It may be necessary to make sacrifices to achieve greater stability and cohesion.
Conclusion
Brexit has brought about a difficult and uncertain period for the United Kingdom that offers few solutions to the problems it has caused. Free-market conservatives hoped for a less statist UK with lower taxes and less regulation. Still, the opposite has occurred, and the fallout has put the Conservative Party in crisis. Brexit has also caused uncertainty about the UK’s future, with calls for Scottish independence and tension over the Irish border issue. The UK must confront these issues head-on and work towards a cohesive plan that considers the needs of all parties.
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To borrow Oscar Wilde’s joke about Little Nell’s death, it would take a heart of stone not to hear the wails of free-market Brexiters without laughing. The last few weeks have seen a barrage of whining, fury and blame-shifting from Leavers leaders, from Nigel Farage to Lord Frost. But perhaps most surprising was an article by Daniel Hannan, a central figure in the Brexit movement, which appeared under the headline, ‘The liberal dream of Brexit is dying’ – although of course he blamed the “Europhile establishment”.
Hannan, a thoughtful Brexiter, exemplifies a strain of Tory Leavers, economic liberals who believed in sovereignty arguments but primarily saw leaving the EU as the vehicle for low taxation, lower regulation and a less statist UK.
Instead, they now look at a landscape of higher taxes, with companies complaining about more regulation, more state intervention and even discussions about voluntary price caps in supermarkets.
This, then, was a lament not only for the lost dream of Brexit, but also for a lost Conservative Party. In reality, their promised land has always been a fantasy, but by allying themselves with Tory nationalists and Gaullists against those seeking a softer Brexit, the Leave Liberals have also given up on the economic argument. A more active state was the price of getting Brexit. They won the war but lost the peace.
This helps explain another conundrum of British politics. Why are the Conservatives so angry when they have won in so many ways? For a party allegedly beset by obstruction, they have achieved many of their goals. Through Brexit, they changed British foreign and trade policy and took control of immigration. They redirected investment to neglected regions and pushed the UK away from its pro-China stance. One can object to all this; a lot did not work out as they would like. But it is not the chronicle of an insignificant government and the next elections will be fought on their turf.
Anger is the fury of those Thatcherite conservatives. Brexit worked for them, giving power back to British politicians and, through them, to British voters. Their mistake was to think it would change the electorate’s priorities, miraculously transforming the median voter into Friedrich Hayek.
The key to the miscalculation was the impact of Brexit on their party. Since Thatcher, there have been three legs in the Tory stool – the liberals, the conservative social conservatives and the metropolitan Tories – exemplified by the leadership of David Cameron and George Osborne.
While the latter group was more liberal culturally, economically they were still Thatcherites. They believed in free trade, globalization, reducing taxes to encourage investment, and reducing government spending. Before the referendum, social and economic liberals were broadly aligned.
Brexit destroyed this coalition. But Leave liberals were slow to recognize that Brexit was also a revolt against their ideology, expressed in the populist arguments of those hard-line on immigration, suspicious of big business, passionate about the culture wars and comfortable with one state more interventionist and better financed public services. The famous Brexit pledge was, after all, more money for the NHS.
During the referendum itself, the alliance made sense. But once it was over, instead of allying with globalists and Remainers turned Brexiteers, many free-market Leavers made common cause with populists who never shared their economic vision. They believed that maximizing “Brexit freedoms” would protect the smallest state.
The UK’s major service industries – and wealthy southern voters – were sacrificed to a bad trade deal as they built a new Tory electoral coalition. This resulted in victory but handed their party over to the populists and undermined those who shared their economic values. The clues were always there, not least in the overtly interventionist The outpouring of Boris Johnson’s “fuck business”. The pandemic destroyed their room for maneuver by wrecking public finances but the pass had already been sold.
Their desperate attempt to regain the lead was to abandon a core belief in fiscal prudence for the chaos of Liz Truss’s government: it shattered the Tory’s reputation for economic savvy and the free-market cause.
But even when Truss used her only party conference speech as leader to rail against the “anti-growth coalition,” she didn’t notice that he was sitting across from her, among the ranks of Nimby, immigration hawks and culture warriors who hate the city. The party is stuck in a low-growth economic model and a belief in spending cuts that struggles to be specific.
In all honesty, the world has changed too. Free trade, globalization and cooperation have given way to competing power blocs. Asia’s shift has coincided with the withdrawal of its largest market, while climate change and energy security require greater state intervention.
As a result, the party’s center of gravity and electoral calculations have shifted to meet a new target audience that is socially conservative and economically leftist. The populists have the upper hand. The neoliberal argument will have to be defeated once again.
So, yes, the free-market Conservatives have lost their Brexit dream, their economic model and perhaps even their party. But it hasn’t been stolen by the Europhile establishment. They traded it in another bad Brexit deal.
https://www.ft.com/content/8ee72166-8b5d-4150-abb0-87d838f04dcb
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