The Future of Open Source Virus Research
Introduction
In the midst of the Covid-19 pandemic, American officials proposed the idea of sharing information about zoonotic viruses online to allow scientists worldwide to predict future variants. This concept, known as the Deep Vzn initiative, aimed to harness the power of open source collaboration to enhance global preparedness and find solutions to viral threats. However, concerns were raised about the potential risks of releasing such information, as it could potentially be exploited by bad actors. This article explores the challenges and opportunities presented by open source virus research, highlighting the need for a balanced approach that prioritizes both transparency and security.
The Benefits of Open Source Virus Research
1. Enhanced Global Collaboration: The Covid-19 pandemic made it clear that effective pandemic response requires international cooperation. By sharing information about known viral threats and enabling scientists to collaborate globally, open source virus research has the potential to accelerate the development of effective countermeasures.
2. Inclusive Innovation: One of the key goals of the Deep Vzn initiative was to foster innovation in emerging markets that often face exclusion from global scientific debates. By providing access to open source antivirus platforms, scientists from these regions could contribute valuable insights and approaches to virus research.
3. Learning from Lockdowns: The lockdowns imposed during the pandemic prompted scientists to adapt and find new ways to collaborate. Video calls and virtual meetings enabled cross-border and cross-institutional brainstorming, showcasing the power of technology in facilitating scientific collaboration.
The Risks of Open Source Virus Research
1. Potential for Misuse: Releasing detailed information about viruses online could potentially enable malicious actors to replicate and even enhance deadly diseases. This concern was echoed by biotech experts who drew parallels to the risks associated with nuclear weapons proliferation.
2. Security and Safety Concerns: The release of sensitive information about viruses raises significant security and safety concerns. The potential for misuse of this information by individuals or groups with malicious intent is a compelling reason to exercise caution in implementing open source virus research.
3. Comprehensive Review Process: The decision by the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) to mothball the open source aspect of the Deep Vzn initiative highlights the importance of a thorough review process that considers all potential risks and benefits.
The Role of Scientists in Policy-Making
1. Science Advocacy in Politics: The creation of campaign body 314 Action, which supports scientists running for public office, underscores the need for greater representation of scientists in policy-making. Having experts who understand the scientific intricacies of issues can lead to more informed and evidence-based decision-making.
2. Hostility Towards Science: The lack of science or engineering backgrounds among members of the US Congress, coupled with increasing hostility towards science in recent years, poses a challenge to evidence-based policy-making. Addressing this issue requires a concerted effort to build bridges between the scientific community and policymakers.
The Balancing Act of Transparency in Virus Research
1. Lessons from Pathogens: The risks associated with publishing details about pathogens have highlighted the need for a nuanced approach to transparency. While open science promotes progress, it is essential to strike a balance that considers potential risks and safeguards against misuse.
2. Artificial Intelligence and Transparency: Similar to virus research, the development and deployment of artificial intelligence (AI) tools raise questions about transparency. The proprietary nature of AI research by big tech companies poses social dilemmas, as citizens may not want sole control over AI to rest in the hands of corporations.
3. The Dilemma of Proprietary Research: While keeping AI research proprietary may address security concerns, it can hinder progress and innovation. Finding a middle ground that allows for transparency while protecting against misuse is vital for fostering both technological advancement and societal trust.
The Power of Citizen Engagement
1. Speaking Up for Change: Citizens have the power to shape policy and hold both tech companies and governments accountable. The protests against the Deep Vzn initiative demonstrate that concerned individuals can make a difference by raising awareness and mobilizing public opinion.
2. Empowerment in Democracy: The ability to advocate for change and voice dissenting opinions is a hallmark of democratic societies. While technology advances rapidly, citizens must actively engage, rather than succumbing to helplessness or passive ignorance.
Expanding Perspectives and Insights
As the world grapples with the challenges posed by open source virus research and the broader implications of technological advancements, it becomes crucial to explore related concepts and gain unique perspectives. One area of concern is the ethical implications of AI and its potential for misuse. Understanding the risks and benefits of AI requires a multi-disciplinary approach involving experts from various fields, including ethics, law, and computer science.
Additionally, the concept of responsible innovation emerges as a crucial consideration in the development and implementation of emerging technologies. Responsible innovation seeks to strike a balance between progress and societal impacts, ensuring that technological advancements are achieved ethically and equitably.
Furthermore, the ongoing Covid-19 pandemic serves as a stark reminder of the importance of effective global governance and cooperation in tackling global challenges. International collaboration, strengthened by open source research and inclusive decision-making, is key to mitigating future threats and promoting global health security.
Summary
In summary, the Deep Vzn initiative exemplifies the potential of open source virus research in accelerating scientific collaboration and fostering inclusive innovation. However, concerns about security and the potential for misuse highlight the need for a comprehensive review process and a balanced approach to transparency. Furthermore, the role of scientists in policy-making becomes crucial in promoting evidence-based decision-making. The dilemmas of both open source virus research and the development of AI emphasize the importance of citizen engagement and responsible innovation. By actively participating in shaping policy and holding stakeholders accountable, individuals can contribute to a society that harnesses the benefits of technological advancements while prioritizing safety and ethical considerations.
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During the height of the Covid-19 pandemic, some well-meaning American officials floated a new idea: why not put the details of known zoonotic viral threats online to allow scientists around the world to predict which variants might emerge next? And hopefully find antidotes.
In theory, it sounded attractive. Covid had shown how much it costs to ignore pandemics. He also revealed the startling breakthroughs that can occur when governments finally pour resources into vaccine research, fast.
The lockdowns revealed something else: While scientists had difficulty brainstorming if they were physically separated or working in different institutions, during the lockdowns they learned to organize meetings via video calls which enabled cross-border and cross-border innovation.
So part of the Deep Vzn initiative, an offshoot of the Global Virome Project, envisioned that an open source antivirus platform could spark global brainstorming, particularly in emerging markets that have often been excluded from such debates.
So far, so inspiring. But when the US Agency for International Development (USAID) floated the Deep Vzn idea, some scientists spotted a problem: releasing details about viruses online could allow bad actors to replicate deadly diseases and make them worse. “It’s natural to want to understand the threats. But… we don’t seek new and easier paths [creating] nuclear weapons; pandemics are no different,” tweeted Kevin Esvelt, a biotech expert at MIT who helped pioneer the Crispr genome engineering project. “Although identifying pandemic viruses early could allow us to prevent all natural pandemics , doing so would inevitably give tens of thousands of individuals… the power to trigger more pandemics,” he added.
After a chorus of complaints, USAID mothballed the open source aspect of Deep Vzn. “We take safety incredibly seriously … and in this case, in consultation with our colleagues throughout the administration and with Congress, we have embarked on a comprehensive review process,” said a spokesman, noting that: “This field research has not progressed”.
Two years later, this may seem like a mere historical footnote. Not like that. Some observers fear the return of “predictive search”. Alarms have recently been raised in Congress about the risks. More broadly, Deep Vzn offers some wholesome lessons for artificial intelligence as the debate about this intensifies. First, it shows why we need more scientists involved in policy and policy-making – and working with non-scientists.
It seems obvious. But a shocking detail about the US Congress is that only a small number of its members have science or engineering backgrounds, in stark contrast to countries like Germany or China. What’s worse, some have become increasingly hostile to science in recent years. Former President Donald Trump is a case in point.
In 2016, a campaign body called 314 Action was created to support scientists who want to run for public office. It has already had some success, leading its website to state, “In 2018, we played a pivotal role in turning the US House of Representatives upside down by electing nine first-time science candidates.” It will also support pro-science candidates in next year’s race. But there is still a long way to go, and given how rapidly technologies such as AI are developing, this is cause for alarm.
The second lesson is that policy makers need to carefully handle the idea of transparency, not just with pathogens, but with artificial intelligence as well. Until now, some Western AI experts have chosen to publish their cutting-edge research on open source platforms to advance the cause of science and gain recognition. But just as biotech experts have realized that publishing details about pathogens could be risky, so experts are realizing the threat artificial intelligence tools pose if they fall into evil hands.
The dilemma is that keeping AI research proprietary also raises major social problems. The institutions with the resources needed for AI research in the West are mostly Big Tech companies. But few voters want to leave them sole control over AI research or decisions about when to publish it.
This leads to a third key lesson: Concerned citizens should speak up. This is disheartening, given the power of tech companies and governments. But Rob Reid, a tech investor and podcaster who helped spark the protests against Deep Vzn, points out that their campaign was mostly led by “just a group of concerned [American] strangers with busy lives,” who felt compelled and empowered to ring alarm bells. “This [protest] it could never have happened in an authoritarian country,” he adds. Indeed. And he demonstrates that just because technology is advancing at a terrifying rate, we don’t have to succumb to helplessness or passive ignorance.
Follow Gillian on Twitter @gilliantett and email her at gillian.tett@ft.com
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https://www.ft.com/content/0cad55cd-7f07-4fd6-86b7-a2bbfacd214c
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