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The increase in tensions between India and Pakistan caused by a deadly shooting in Cashmiro administered by India last week has not sounded so far the global alarm it deserves. He murder Of 25 tourists and a resident in the region in dispute was the worst terrorist attack against civilians in India since Mumbai’s attacks in 2008 who killed 166. New Delhi has related violence with Pakistan; Islamabad has denied any connection. The neighbors of nuclear weapons are in a dangerous confrontation. The Prime Minister of India, Narendra Modi, has given his army “operational freedom” to respond. The Pakistan government said Wednesday having credible intelligence of an imminent Indian military strike.
He Kashmir disputeClaimed by India and Pakistan, but divided among them, has already caused three wars. A group that is said to be linked to the militant group of Pakistan Lashkar-E-Taiba that seeks to reunify Kashmir, and was behind Mumbai’s attacks 2008, initially it seemed to assume the responsibility of last week. Massacre in Pahalgama But then he said that his social networks had been pirate. The Indian police have appointed two Pakistani nationals with alleged links for Let and a Kashmir as alleged gunmen.
Frictions have quickly intensified. India Degraded diplomatic relations with Pakistan and participation suspended in a cross -border water treaty. The two parts have been exchanging shots through the facto border in Kashmir.
The last time the tensions exploded in the region in 2019, when a suicide bomb killed 40 Indian paramilitary soldiers, the conflict was fortunately contained after the Tit strikes per eye. This time the environment is more fuel. The shooting is a blow to the narrative of the normalization of Modi in Kashmir, after stripping the only Muslim majority region in India in 2019 of its semi -autonomous state. His Hindu nationalism has rooted more and, after an electoral setback last year, the leader of the strong man can be tempted to use the crisis to gather support.
In the midst of domestic discontent and economic problems, Pakistan’s military will face pressure to respond strongly to any Indian attack, risking a stepped cycle. Islamabad also has more closest links with Beijing, with a leg of the Belt and Road initiative of China that crosses Kashmir administered by Pakistan.
Meanwhile, credible mediators are missing. Although the Secretary of State of the United States, Marco Rubio, urged both parties this week to decline, diplomats feel that the United States is not working as intensely as he did in 2019.
Of India Modi You can rightly argue that the first priority of any leader is to protect its citizens. The main opposition has urged him to act strongly to ensure that those responsible for the shootings “pay the price.” But being absorbed by a staggered war, when both parties have nuclear weapons, it does not serve the best interest. The prime minister must allow an independent investigation of the attack or publish any credible test of Pakistan’s participation.
If New Delhi is determined to respond militarily, any attacks must be carefully calibrated. Target terrorist sites, instead of the Pakistani army itself, would send a robust message while keeping the open ramps open. But as much as possible, New Delhi should explore non -military options. He is showing signs of doing so, suggesting that he can oppose an IMF loan of $ 1.3 billion to Pakistan, although such loans should not become a political pressure instrument.
A few years ago international hopes that the United States and China could play a more constructive diplomatic role in southern Asia have come shortly. It can largely fall to New Delhi and Islamabad to solve the current clash without allowing them to be controlled. Diplomats see some signs, behind martial public rhetoric, a desire to do so. But the price of any calculation error could be catastrophic.