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After more than a year of unimaginable death and destruction in the Middle East, a moment of hope has finally arrived. At 4 a.m. local time on Wednesday, a US-brokered ceasefire came into force to stop the war between Israel and the Lebanese militant group Hezbollah. The agreement, which provides for Hezbollah to withdraw from Lebanon’s southern border and for invading Israeli forces to withdraw and end a relentless bombing campaign, is fragile and will face countless tests.
The responsibility for ensuring that Hezbollah respects the terms lies with LebanonIran’s government, its military and UN peacekeepers, none of whom in the past have been able or willing to stop the militants. The responsibility of ensuring that Israel meets the terms falls to Benjamin Netanyahu, the prime minister, who will have to contain his far-right allies and avoid attacking again under any pretext.
It is in the interest of all parties. so that the ceasefire lasts beyond the initial 60 day period. Hezbollah has taken its biggest beating since its founding in the 1980s. Israel’s offensive has caused devastation throughout Lebanon, particularly in the Shiite areas from which Hezbollah draws its support. Israeli bombs have killed more than 3,700 people and forced another 1.2 million (nearly a quarter of Lebanon’s population) to flee their homes. Even before the conflict broke out following the Hamas attack on Israel on October 7, 2023, Lebanon was on its knees. It now faces the enormous challenge of rebuilding itself after Hezbollah’s miscalculation in siding with Hamas.
For Israel, a sustainable ceasefire would mean that 60,000 people displaced by Hezbollah rockets could return to their homes and an end to daily cross-border bombings. Netanyahu can claim to have severely weakened one of Israel’s most potent enemies, dealing devastating blows not only to Hezbollah but also to its patron, Iran.
However, the Middle East is far from at peace. Netanyahu has made clear that Israel, with US cover, will attack if it decides that Hezbollah poses a threat. In fact, he said the ceasefire does not mean he will not resume the war, and said the truce will allow Israel to focus on the “Iranian threat” while allowing the army to replenish its reserves.
There may be an element of boastfulness in Netanyahu’s words. But given the belligerent mentality that has gripped Israel since the horrors of the Hamas attack (and the lack of restraint on the part of the West), its threats must be taken seriously. In the past year, Israel has demonstrated that it will strike at will against its enemies wherever they are.
Lebanon emerges from the war beaten, with a collapsed State and a wounded Hezbollah. Any attempt by Hezbollah to bolster its remaining arsenal would not only once again put the country at risk of an Israeli attack, but would also deepen internal tensions with other Muslim and Christian communities in an increasingly delicate sectarian balance.
The Lebanese political class (whose patronage and corruption have held the nation hostage for years, while creating space for the rise of Hezbollah) must begin to build a stronger state from the remains of the war. That starts with electing a new president in a country that has been without one for two years, and a government that can regain the trust of cautious donors whose funds are urgently needed for reconstruction.
The ceasefire is a rare diplomatic success for US President Joe Biden. However, his efforts to end Israel’s war in Gaza have repeatedly failed. It will probably be up to Donald Trump to resume his search for a truce in the besieged Strip. The president-elect boasts that he can end wars in the Middle East. But with the Gaza war still raging and tensions between Israel and Iran simmering, the region remains far from peace.