Starting September 8, about $20 billion worth of U.S. goods will be subject to Canadian counter tariffs of up to 50%. They follow the 50 percent tariffs that Washington imposed on Canadian goods on August 22. Still, U.S. President Donald Trump’s renewed focus on Canada should come as no surprise after Washington rejected an extension of the U.S.-Mexico-Canada trade deal in July.
For four decades, Canadian economic life was dominated by the belief that access to the US market was a constant, not a variable. This assumption no longer applies whether the tariffs remain in place or not.
Where should Canadians look next? The answer lies in Asia – if both sides can overcome their mutual ignorance.
Yes, a pivot point – where it makes sense
We estimate that the U.S. was the destination for 65% of Canada’s exports of goods and services in the first half of 2026. That’s down from about 75% in 2024, but much of the shift affected a handful of commodities like oil, gold and liquefied natural gas. The European Union and China each attracted about 5% of Canadian exports.
No single market will replace the U.S. market, meaning Canadian companies will need to enter multiple smaller markets at the same time. But the effort will be worth it: If Canada sells itself into several large, growing, rules-based markets, it may find Washington’s next unilateral decision more of an annoyance than an emergency.
Don’t start from scratch
Fortunately, the foundation for Canada’s expansion into Asia has already been laid.
Japan and South Korea are the immediate priorities due to their purchasing power, strong rule of law and already established ties with Canada. Much of the trade between Canada, Japan, and Canada and Korea is already, or will soon be, duty-free. Canada offers energy and agricultural products to Korea and Japan; Japan and Korea, in turn, supply batteries, semiconductors, machinery and shipbuilding capacity. (Taiwan also offers the same benefits; the Taiwan-Canada Trade Cooperation Framework is just waiting to be signed.)
Energy leads the way when it comes to Canada’s exports to Asia – supported by Asian investment. LNG Canada is supported by Petronas, Korean gas, Mitsubishi and PetroChina; It is already shipping to countries across Asia.
The Canadian Energy Regulator (CER) notes that crude oil exports to destinations other than the United States amounted to $10 billion in 2025, averaging about 430,000 barrels per day, an increase of virtually zero before 2024. Oil sales haven’t slowed: Alberta’s oil exports to China and South Korea rose 122% and 227%, respectively, in the first four months of 2026. These energy flows cross the Pacific without ever passing through a contested choke point.
Other sectors that could benefit from a shift to Asia include agri-food, forest products, aluminum, machinery and digitally delivered services. Southeast Asia is an important growth area for these sectors. Vietnam, Malaysia and Singapore are all CPTPP partners. Vietnam offers growth and production demand; Malaysia offers opportunities for industry and processed foods; and Singapore is valuable as a regional base but also as a sophisticated end market, particularly for niche products in agri-food and technology.
The region’s largest markets offer further opportunities. India and Indonesia are high-growth, higher-friction markets that promise demand for machinery, industrial technology, infrastructure and specialty raw materials. Finally, China remains a selective market for Canada due to national security sensitivity and excess capacity in both sourcing and exports. Beyond oil, trade between Canada and China will likely focus on less sensitive areas, including pulp, paper, industrial materials and high-value consumer goods.
The barrier is knowledge, in both directions
The obstacle is not market access. Canada and Asia already have trade agreements, expert agencies, joint economic councils and chambers of commerce to facilitate the flow of goods and services.
Yet despite all this support, too few business people on both sides of the Pacific know what is going on.
A survey by the Angus Reid Institute for the Asia Pacific Foundation of Canada found that 73% of Canadians say they know little or nothing about South Korea; 82% say the same about Singapore and 90% about Malaysia. Still, 78% supported Canada’s CPTPP membership. Canadians support the agreement but know almost nothing about the countries included in it.
The reflection is just as bad. In a Kadin Business Pulse survey of 276 Indonesian companies, 84% of respondents said they had either never heard of the Indonesia-Canada Free Trade Agreement or knew very little about it. Many were unaware that Canada had a preferential agreement with their country; Among those who knew it, interpretations of what it covered varied widely.
At the Asia Pacific Foundation of Canada, we hear similar anecdotes from Vietnam’s private sector, particularly outside of the technology production sector.
You cannot use preferences that you do not understand. The work ahead is convincing hundreds of thousands of Canadian and Asian companies that now is the time to get to know each other. Governments can only do so much. Instead, the private sector needs to educate itself on both sides, get on a few planes, and test some markets and products.
The trade agreements and institutional elements are intended to support this diversification. But companies have to take the first step.
The opinions expressed in Fortune.com comments are solely the views of their authors and do not necessarily reflect the opinions and beliefs ofAssets.
Barrett Bingley is the Asia regional director of the Asia Pacific Foundation of Canada, based in Singapore. Previously, he was senior policy advisor to Canada’s ministers of foreign affairs and trade.
This story was originally featured on Fortune.com