As of 5:05 a.m. Eastern Time today, oil is at $89.53 per barrel, using Brent as the benchmark (we’ll explain what that means in a moment). That’s up 45 cents since yesterday morning and about $16.84 more than this time last year.
| Oil price per barrel | % Change | |
| Oil price yesterday | $89.08 | +0.50% |
| Oil price 1 month ago | $73.90 | +21.15% |
| Oil price a year ago | $72.69 | +23.16% |
Will oil prices rise?
Nobody can predict with certainty the future development of oil prices. A number of factors influence oil trading, but supply and demand remain the main drivers. If fears of an economic slowdown, conflict or similar shocks increase, oil prices could rise sharply.
How oil prices affect gas pump prices
The price you see at the pump reflects more than just crude oil. Also included are the costs of refining, distribution through wholesalers, various taxes, and the margin that your local gas station charges.
Crude oil is still the single largest driver of the final pump price, typically accounting for more than half of the cost per gallon. Rising oil prices tend to cause gas prices to rise in the short term. But when oil prices fall, gas prices often fall gradually, a behavior known as “rockets and feathers.”
The role of the US strategic petroleum reserve
In case of emergency, the USA maintains a reserve of crude oil, the so-called Strategic Petroleum Reserve. Their main goal is to ensure energy security when disasters occur – such as sanctions, severe storm damage or war. It can also go a long way to easing the pain of sudden price jumps during supply disruptions.
This is not a permanent solution, but rather to provide immediate support to consumers and ensure that important parts of the economy such as key industries, emergency services, public transport, etc. can continue to function.
How oil and natural gas prices are related
Both oil and natural gas play key roles as important energy sources. A large change in oil prices can have a vicarious impact on natural gas. If oil prices rise, some industries may substitute natural gas for certain segments of their operations, where possible, thereby increasing demand for natural gas.
Historical performance of oil
Oil prices are often measured against two important benchmarks:
- Brent crude oil is the most important global oil benchmark.
- West Texas Intermediate (WTI) is the most important benchmark in North America.
Brent is a better reflection of global oil performance as it prices a majority of the world’s traded crude oil. This is also often the best way to review historical oil trends. In fact, the US Energy Information Administration now relies on Brent as the primary reference in its annual energy outlook.
If you look at the Brent benchmark over several decades, you will see that the price of oil has been anything but constant. There have been spikes caused by wars and supply cuts, but also dips related to global recessions and oversupply (so-called “oversupply”). For example:
- The early 1970s brought the first major oil shock when the Middle East restricted exports and imposed an embargo on the United States and other countries during the Yom Kippur War.
- In the mid-1980s, prices fell for reasons such as weaker demand and increasing entry of non-OPEC oil producers into the industry.
- In 2008, prices rose again due to increasing global demand, but soon collapsed along with the global financial crisis.
- During the 2020 COVID lockdown, oil demand collapsed like never before, sending prices below $20 per barrel.
In short, oil’s historical performance has been anything but stable. It is massively affected by wars, recessions, whims of OPEC, evolving energy initiatives and policies, and much more.
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Frequently asked questions
How is the current oil price per barrel actually determined?
The current price of oil per barrel depends largely on supply and demand, including news about potential future supply and demand (geopolitics, OPEC+ decisions, etc.). In the US, prices also fluctuate depending on how friendly a government is to drilling, as this can affect future supply. For example, in 2025, the Trump administration decided to reopen more than 1.5 million acres in the coastal plain of the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge to oil and gas leasing, reversing the Biden administration’s policy of limiting oil drilling in the Arctic.
How often does the price of oil change throughout the day?
The price of oil is constantly updating when the “futures markets” are open. A futures market is effectively an auction where people agree to buy or sell oil in the future. As long as people and companies enter into contracts, the price of oil changes.
How does US shale oil production affect the current price of oil?
In short, shale is a rock that contains oil and natural gas. Think of shale as energy yet to be tapped. The more shale oil the U.S. gets, the more energy we will have — and the easier it will be for oil prices to prevent such a sharp rise thanks to greater supply.
How does the current oil price affect inflation and the overall economy?
When oil is expensive, everyday items tend to be more expensive. This can be related to energy (heating, gas supply, etc.), but it can also be due to the logistics involved in providing these things to you. For example, shipping can affect the price of items at the grocery store because it is more expensive to get these products from warehouses and farms to the shelf.