Global warming is likely to exceed 1.5C within five years, the meteorological agency says

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Global temperatures are likely to exceed 1.5C above pre-industrial levels for the first time in human history within the next five years, the World Meteorological Organization said in its latest annual assessment.

In a stark conclusion, scientists stated for the first time that there was a 66% chance that the average annual global land area Temperature increase would temporarily exceed 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels in “at least” one year by 2027.

The chances of this outcome also “increased with time,” the report said. The assessment of a two-thirds probability of a temporary breach of the 1.5°C threshold compares with estimates of around 48% a year ago and “close to zero” in 2015.

The report, compiled by researchers from 11 organizations around the world, including those in Europe, North America, Japan and China, covers the years 2023 to 2027.

The authors said there was a 98% chance that any of the five years would exceed the record 1.28C temperature rise set in 2016, and that the next half-decade as a whole would be the hottest on record. .

The long-awaited return of El Niño weather phenomenonleading to warming of the surface of the Pacific Ocean, is expected to amplify global temperatures by the end of this year.

Arctic temperatures are projected to rise more than three times faster than the global average, as melting snow and ice reduce the ability to reflect the sun and cause more warming than elsewhere.

“We are now within reach of a 1.5°C temperature overshoot. . . this is the first time in human history that we have been so close,” said Adam Scaife, head of monthly to decadal forecasts at the UK’s Met Office Hadley Centre.

Many of the forecasts for the El Niño phenomenon “that we think is developing this winter show quite a large El Niño amplitude,” he added.

The hottest year on record in 2016 occurred during an “exceptionally strong” El Niño event.

The opposite weather phenomenon, La Niña, has persisted for three years and generally has a cooling effect. Despite that, the eight years since 2015 are likely to have been the warmest period on record, according to the OMMthe evaluation of.

Global temperatures have already risen by at least 1.1°C on a long-term average basis. The Paris Agreement commits nations around the world to limit the average long-term increase in temperatures to 1.5°C, ideally, which is a different measure from the average increase in any given year. Scientists predict that irreversible changes will occur on the planet beyond that level of warming.

On Wednesday, climate scientists working as part of the World Weather Attribution group concluded that human-caused climate change made April’s record-breaking heat in Bangladesh, India, Laos and Thailand “at least 30 times more likely.”

Over the next five years, the researchers predict that warming in the Arctic will be ‘disproportionately high’. Melting sea ice could mean more shipping lanes open up, said Leon Hermanson, senior scientist at the Met Office Hadley Center.

As the planet warms, high-latitude areas in the Northern Hemisphere, such as Scandinavia and Siberia, are expected to experience above-average rainfall between November and March over the next five years, the scientists said.

Between May and September, meanwhile, rainfall is expected to be above the 1991-2020 average in Africa’s Sahel region, northern Europe, Alaska and northern Siberia, but below average in the Amazon and parts of the ‘Australia.

These were all conditions “consistent with global warming”.

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