The US cannot fully reopen the Strait of Hormuz and Iran cannot stop every ship from transporting oil through narrow waterways.
At the same time, the United States is preventing Iran from exporting its crude oil supplies or importing critical goods while American forces struggle with ammunition and readiness problems.
The result was a stalemate, with oil prices fluctuating but relatively under control and missiles still being fired without escalating into all-out war. However, this precarious balance is unlikely to last.
Currently, Significant amounts of oil are still sneaking through the Strait of Hormuz, contradicting Tehran’s claims that it is completely closed as rivals Iraq, Qatar, Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates use a “dark” fleet to secretly ship supplies in and out via ship-to-ship transfers.
The Trump administration has claimed that 8 million to 9 million barrels of oil are flowing out this way each day, although analysts have estimated closer to 7 million. While that’s far less than the prewar level of 20 million, oil flows through the strait and exports via pipelines add up to about half that amount, giving global energy markets more time before they fall off a cliff.
And the amount of oil flowing from the Persian Gulf will soon rise sharply, despite occasional Iranian attacks on tankers. Satellite images show that export powerhouse Saudi Arabia appears to be poised to join its neighbors in a big way Ships on both sides of the strait position themselves for the shuttle service.
Meanwhile, the US naval blockade re-imposed by President Donald Trump is stopping Iran’s oil exports and the regime’s revenues from them. Officials and business leaders in Tehran are increasingly warning of a blockade Destroying the Iranian economywhich was already in ruins before the war.
Experts have warned that Iran’s repressive regime is unlikely to be swayed by the suffering of ordinary citizens and is willing to wait out economic hardship longer than the U.S. public can tolerate high gas prices.
But Iran is also unlikely to do nothing as long as its economy continues to collapse, forcing Trump to revert from economic war to kinetic war.
Majidreza Hariri, head of the Iran-China Joint Chamber of Commerce, recently admitted that the US blockade will ultimately cause even more economic damage as an actual war.
To prevent this, he called on the regime to do whatever it takes to end the blockade, “be it through negotiations, supplications, threats or even war.”
“We must also remove the impression in the US that they can resort to such a measure at any time and make it clear to them that the consequences of such a measure could be serious,” Hariri added.
In fact, Iran has reorganized its military to act more aggressively and its tactical situation has improved, even though its conventional forces were decimated by American-Israeli bombing early in the war.
Iran has developed new rockets that are better able to evade air defenses, making U.S. military installations and allied oil infrastructure in the region more vulnerable.
The U.S. military has also used up much of its inventory of interceptors, now so low that it reportedly factored in Trump’s decision to call off a major escalation of the war.
Furthermore, even maintaining the naval blockade has put a strain on U.S. forces such as the USS Abraham Lincoln Aircraft carrier is fighting mental health and care issues amid a record-long time at sea. Another carrier is on its way to take its place, but other ships conducting blockade operations are likely to face similar logistical problems.
“Could the U.S. naval blockade make Iran’s already dire economic situation worse? Absolutely, which is why no one should expect Iran to just sit idly by when that happens. It will strike back,” said Eric Brewer, a former U.S. intelligence official. told that Wall Street Journal. “Iran has been proven to have a higher pain tolerance than the United States. I haven’t seen anything to suggest that this has changed.”