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Summary
The Publisher’s Digest is a free weekly newsletter curated by Roula Khalaf, editor of the Financial Times. It provides readers with a curated selection of the most important and interesting stories from around the world. By unlocking the Publisher’s Digest, readers gain access to valuable insights, analysis, and commentary that can enhance their understanding of global affairs, business, and finance. Newsletters like the Publisher’s Digest play a crucial role in the digital age, helping readers cut through the noise and stay well-informed in an era of information overload. By providing free access to the newsletter, the Financial Times is ensuring that valuable knowledge is accessible to all, fostering a more knowledgeable and connected society.
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Roula Khalaf, editor of the FT, selects her favorite stories in this weekly newsletter.
The writer is a professor of politics at Queen Mary University of London
There will be no general election in the UK tomorrow, no matter how much political pollsters push voters to say how they would vote in one. But if there were, even the most optimistic Conservative would have to admit that the Labor Party would win, and win easily. In fact, the contest is unlikely to take place for another year.
Then this year’s conference season, in which the opposition prevailed, will be a distant memory. In fact, it is a research that compares the evaluations of the parties “before and after the conference” over the course of almost 70 years suggest that any bounce Liverpool may have given Labor will deflate much sooner.
That doesn’t mean that Labor leader Sir Keir Starmer shouldn’t be in his stride. As much as we can tell about what constitutes “the fundamentals” when it comes to how people vote, they seem to point to a Labor victory – or at least a Conservative defeat. Starmer will do everything he can to ensure he ends up at the helm of not just the largest party, but a government with a decent majority – which, however, is by no means guaranteed.
One positive for Labor is that snail-paced economic growth and the cost of living crisis mean that, (if they ever really went away), the bread and butter problems are back with a bang. And, from this perspective, things look terrible for the government.
It’s not as if Labor has an overwhelming advantage when pollsters ask voters which party they believe is best equipped to handle the key issues. On the economy, for example, the data is always in the single digits and driven mainly by the fact that while only around a quarter of respondents cite Labour, even fewer (generally around a fifth) support the Conservatives.
What helps Labor, however, is that around three-quarters of voters think the government is handling the issue badly. The NHS and even immigration show similar results.
It’s also personal. Starmer’s approval rating may be at minus 12, but Sunak is at minus 40. Furthermore, the vast majority of voters believe that the government is tired and at the mercy of events. And while two thirds see the conservatives divided, less than a third say the same about Labour.
Yet the difference in values between the UK’s graduate and non-graduate voters, a chasm that helped overturn the Brexit referendum in 2016 and give Boris Johnson a comfortable victory in 2019, has not disappeared. Indeed, new research by University of Manchester professor Rob Ford, presented at the conferences, suggests that the values gap still matters – and poses a challenge to both Labor and the Conservatives.
Voters who left school at 16 are more likely to think immigration is a problem and less likely to share Labour’s priorities in tackling climate change. They are also more likely to be wary of any move by Starmer to improve Britain’s relations with the EU. As a result, Labor must tread carefully, not least because school leavers make up a significant proportion of voters in small town constituencies that it must steal from the Conservatives to gain a majority.
To do this, Labor needs a bigger breakthrough than Tony Blair achieved in Labor’s 1997 victory. So the party’s relatively mediocre performance in local elections is also a cause for concern. This is contrasted with Labour’s recent intervention progress in Scotland and growing evidence of tactical anti-Tory voting south of the border.
However, the fact that support for independence is still at 46% suggests that, despite Rutherglen and Hamilton West’s big victory, by-elections this monthLabor would be wise to limit its ambitions to winning just 20-25 Scottish seats in the House of Commons.
So while it’s hard to imagine right now how the Conservatives can keep Starmer out of Downing Street, doing so with a comfortable (or even workable) majority remains a work in progress.
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