Everyone indulges in wishful thinking from time to time. But when is this most likely to happen, and when could it really be harmful? A new study, led by the University of Amsterdam (UvA), unequivocally demonstrates that the greater the insecurity and anxiety of a situation, the more likely it is that people will become overly optimistic, even to the point that this can lead us prevent taking essential measures. action. The results of the study have now been published in the journal. American Economic Review.
“People do not purely seek the truth; many beliefs are influenced by emotions and motivated by what is pleasurable or comforting. Such as belief in a future life or optimism about health outcomes,” says Joël van der Weele, professor of Economic Psychology at the UvA. Working alongside neuroeconomics professor Jan Engelmann and an international team, Van der Weele set out to answer whether people become overly optimistic when faced with potential difficulties. “So far, studies have not clearly shown that delusions exist and many do not support the idea,” explains Engelmann. ‘But these mainly focused on positive outcomes, such as winning the lottery. We examine how both positive and negative outcomes influence biased beliefs.’
Choose the most pleasant result
Understanding self-deception and its causes is difficult in real-world situations. The study involved a series of experiments with more than 1,700 participants, conducted in a laboratory and online. Participants were briefly shown various patterns, such as sets of stripes with different orientations or colored dots, and asked what type of pattern they saw. Some of these patterns were linked to a negative anxiety-inducing outcome, whether it was a mild, non-dangerous electric shock (in the lab) or a loss of money (online). ‘We wanted to see if people make more mistakes when recognizing patterns associated with a negative outcome, thinking that it is actually a harmless pattern. That would be an illusion,” explains Van der Weele.
The study consistently found that participants were less likely to correctly identify patterns associated with a shock or loss. “Participants tended to see a pattern that aligned with what was most desirable,” Engelmann says. ‘Previous research looked at illusions related to positive outcomes and found mixed results, with many studies finding no effect. Our study shows very clearly that negative emotion “Anxiety about a result leads to illusions.”
Make people more realistic
The researchers also tested interventions designed to make people more realistic. The first was to make patterns easier to recognize. “Reducing uncertainty effectively reduced illusions,” says Van der Weele. The second intervention was to offer greater potential gains for correct pattern recognition. This intervention had little effect, except when participants were able to gather more evidence about the exact pattern they were shown. “When people had more time to collect evidence and were better rewarded for a correct answer, they became more realistic,” explains Engelmann.
Finally, in experiments in which negative outcomes were replaced by positive outcomes, participants showed no illusions. According to the authors, this shows that reducing negative emotions can reduce excess optimism.
Illusions in the ‘real world’
The authors recognize that illusions can be useful because they help us deal with bad feelings and manage uncertainty. Engelmann: “Illusions are important for human beings when it comes to dealing with anxiety about possible future events.” For Van der Weele and Engelmann, concern is situations in which too much optimism prevents people from obtaining the information they need or acting in a way that benefits them. ‘People can have too much hope when things are uncertain. We see this happen with climate change, when financial markets fluctuate, and even in personal health situations when people avoid medical help because they think everything will be fine. We need to know more about when illusions help and when they hurt.’