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As Europe rushes to reinforce its defenses and gather a security force for a postwar, Turkey, with the second largest standing army in NATO and a booming defense industry, has been seen as a vital partner. Meanwhile, investors had begun to trust the apparent conversion of Recep Tayyip Erdogan to Orthodox economic policies after their 2023 presidential victory. Alarming police on Wednesday detention From Ekrem ̇mamoğlu, the popular mayor of Istanbul and Erdogan’s main political rival, throws a shadow on those hopes, and about the future of democracy and the rule of law in Türkiye.
Imamoğlu is seen as the most serious challenger for the grip of more than two decades in Erdogan. The former 54 -year -old businessman was convincing re-elected As mayor in the former fortress of Istanbul de Erdogan last year, in the middle of the worse defeat For the President’s Justice and Development Party (AKP) in local elections for 20 years. Along the way, the authorities have harassed him and faces a variety of doubtful criminal probes. But with the arrest of ̇mamoğlu as part of an investigation into alleged terrorism and corruption links, Erdogan’s circle has moved to another kingdom.
Unless the authorities present convincing evidence, it will underline the fear that the president is taking Turkey Later on the path of authoritarianism that has followed for a decade, particularly since it survived an attempted coup in 2016. The early morning arrest of Imamoğlu, with arrest orders issued for another 99 people, was expected a few days before its Republican Popular Party (CHP) appointed it as its presidential candidate for the elections by 2028.
The mayor’s higher education title was canceled A day before at the State University of Istanbul, which, unless it is revoked in the appeal, could prohibit it from the presidential career. The intensifying repression against the opposition comes along with a campaign by Erdogan’s allies to change the Constitution and allow him to run for a third presidential mandate.
The developments threaten the economic profits achieved from Erdogan in 2023 brought back as Minister of Finance, the market friendly market Mehmet şimşekthat has helped to be abruptly reduce inflation. The fall of the Turkish lyre against the dollar on Wednesday is a sign that investors fear that the president’s commitment to structural reforms cannot be trusted. Many will worry that, ultimately, he is more concerned about his own political future than about the economy.
Erdogan’s desire for foreign investment could still act as a moderation, if international companies are dissuaded by a weakening of institutions. While vocal criticisms are unlikely from the president of the United States, Donald Trump, who seems to admire strong rulers, European leaders should make clear their concern about what is happening in a NATO member. The EU has some influence through Turkey’s desire to improve its customs union with the block, although Erdogan also has a negotiation power, since Turkey houses more than 4 million refugees that otherwise could cross the EU.
However, European criticisms are likely to be silenced by the hopes of considerable Turkish contribution To reduce the dependence on the safety of the continent in the USA. In fact, such calculations, and Trump’s return to the White House, may have persuaded the Erdogan apparatus that could afford to point to a rival.
The situation has echoes of the Cold War, when Türkiye was a key NATO member despite the fact that his attempts of multiparty democracy of the 1950s were frequently interrupted by military blows. However, more democratic setback in this country of 85 million people would be another unfortunate sign of how Trump 2.0 is altering global relationships, and reinforcing leaders who incline authoritarianism.