Charting the decline of the Great British pub is as much a national pastime as monitoring property prices. This week brought a cool hand spin. Some 150 pubs closed in the first three months of this year in England and Wales, according to widely covered statistics from Altus Group.
However, the woes of pubs are less terminal than the declinators claim. A proportion reopens under new management. And some of the trends responsible for alcohol’s gloom are themselves positive.
Admittedly, the closing rate has increased compared to last year. High energy prices continue to drive many homeowners out of business.
Some 6,600 pubs – 14% of the total – have closed in England and Wales over the past decade. Contributing factors included high beer taxes and poor management of some chains as high leverage real estate games.
The demise of traditional British pubs also follows the decline of heavy industry. Pubs were once a place where men gathered to recuperate after a day of physical work. The transition to a service-based economy has changed consumer habits.
There are more women at work, who generally drink less. Men who have families spend more time with them. Although women are still the main carers of children and household chores, men’s contribution has increased. Landlords are converting many redundant pub sites into accommodation, which is badly needed in the overcrowded UK. Surely these are all positive trends.
Ads have already adapted to the threats. An example is the strength of beer. Before the First World War, it was about double what it is today. It was scaled back following public outrage over problematic drunkenness, notes pub historian Dr Patrick Chaplin.
The disappearance of the Great British pub is greatly exaggerated. Many pubs work hard to attract customers with great food and live entertainment. A trip to a pub in a big city on a Thursday or a weekend testifies to this. Ad sales were up 5.5% in February from 2019, Jefferies thinks. Sales comparable to Soup spoons were 9% higher in the seven weeks to mid-March than the same period in 2019.
A third of the boozers that close then reopen. This helps slow the overall attrition rate. Some 400 ads per year disappear permanently. The decline is likely to level off. But if it didn’t, Britain’s last pub wouldn’t close for a century.
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