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Sitting in Europe, it’s easy to believe that everyone is ready to accept Kamala Harris. It’s not like that. Many powerful governments want Donald Trump to win the US presidential election.
The pro-Trump camp includes Israel, Russia, India, Hungary, Argentina and Saudi Arabia. In the pro-Harris camp are Ukraine, most of the EU, Britain, Japan, Canada, Brazil, South Africa and many others.
Russia’s interest in a Trump victory is obvious. The prospect of a Trump-led United States cutting aid to Ukraine would give Vladimir Putin the victory he has so far been denied on the battlefield. The smile of the Russian leader observation The fact that I would rather see Harris win simply shows that she has mastered the art of trolling.
Putin’s dream is the EU’s nightmare. If Ukraine is defeated, the eastern flank of the EU and NATO would be exposed to possible Russian aggression. Even if Trump did not pull the United States out of NATO (as some former advisers have said), saying (could), could seriously undermine the alliance by repeating his suggestion that the United States will not automatically defend its NATO allies.
Trump’s promise to impose tariffs of 10 to 20 percent on all imports is also a major threat to the European economy and, in particular, to large exporting countries like Germany. It could trigger a trade war with the EU.
However, there are governments in Europe that break with the pro-Harris consensus. Italian Giorgia Meloni has far-right political roots and may feel well positioned to mediate between Trump and the EU. Hungarian Viktor Orbán has built a special relationship with the Maga right in the United States. They share their hatred of immigration and seem desire to learn of its success in undermining Hungary’s democratic institutions.
Orbán would see a Trump victory as a sign that the ideological winds are blowing in his direction across the West. Populist and far-right parties in Europe – such as France’s National Rally and Alternative for Germany – could also look to a Trump White House for guidance and support. With Trump back in power, Europe’s liberal democracies would be in danger of becoming trapped in a vice between the United States, Russia and the far right within Europe itself.
Trump’s emphasis on power politics and his indifference to democracy and human rights worries the EU. But it makes him the preferred partner of Benjamin Netanyahu’s Israel, Mohammed bin Salman’s Saudi Arabia and Narendra Modi’s India.
Harris is viewed with suspicion in Israel because she has been marginally more critical of Israel than Joe Biden and avoided attending Netanyahu’s recent speech to Congress, citing a prior commitment. As one Israeli executive told me: “Eighty percent of American Jews will vote for Harris. But 80 percent of Israelis would vote for Trump.”
The Biden administration long ago abandoned the idea of making Prince Mohammed a “pariah” and is instead working toward a new security treaty between Saudi Arabia and the United States as a way to bolster American influence in Middle East. But MBS will remember that Democrats led the effort to prevent it after the gruesome murder of Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi. The Saudi leader may also have picked up on hints that Harris’ team is more skeptical about offering security guarantees to his country than Biden’s advisers. On the contrary, MBS and his circle have long enjoyed close diplomatic and business relations. ties to the Trump camp and, in particular, to the former president’s son-in-law, Jared Kushner.
The commitment to maintaining a strong relationship with India is now bipartisan in Washington. The Modi government has signed important agreements with the Biden administration. But Modi and his supporters see Democrats as too inclined to pressure them on minority rights and the protection of democracy. It is now common in India to blame meddling American liberals for bringing about “regime change” in Bangladesh earlier this year, which Indians fear will bring Islamists to power. As a strongman leader and ethno-nationalist, Modi would feel more comfortable with Trump than Harris, despite her family ties to India.
In East Asia, however, America’s allies have every reason to be seriously concerned about the prospect of a Trump presidency. Biden’s team has done a good job building the US alliance system in the Indo-Pacific, in a bid to contain Chinese power. But Trump has made clear that he considers key US allies, such as Japan and South Korea, freeloaders. he also has implicitsometimes, that he has little interest in defending Taiwan.
All of this should be music to the ears of Chinese leaders, who would love to see the abandonment of Taiwan and the destruction of the American alliance system in Asia. On the other hand, Trump has also promised to impose tariffs of up to 60 percent on Chinese imports, and the United States remains China’s largest export market. Trump is also surrounded by anti-China hawks like Mike Pompeo, his former secretary of state. If the hawks are given free rein, then US policy towards China could become much more confrontational.
For many foreign governments, the crucial difference between Trump and Harris is not just ideological but temperamental. A Harris administration would be stable and predictable. Trump would return wildness and volatility to the Oval Office.