Migration, long a politically sensitive topic, will become an economic necessity over the next decade as countries grapple with the strains of an aging population, the World Bank said on Tuesday.
The multilateral lender said the growing share of older people – especially in the wealthiest economies, where almost a fifth of people are now past the normal retirement age of 65 – will put increasing pressure on the global economic growth, public finances and social cohesion.
“Over the next decade, all countries, regardless of income level, will find migration increasingly necessary,” the bank said, adding that governments needed to do more to attract foreign workers. Current approaches have created “great inefficiencies and missed opportunities” while causing human suffering.
According to world Bank. Meanwhile, receiving countries should partner with them to help fund training and reduce recruitment costs, while working to build political consensus on the role of migration and to make the most of talents of refugees.
Low-skilled refugees needed more support to access jobs in host countries; legal ways to migration reduce incentives for human trafficking and smuggling; and more humane systems to handle returns and relocation when necessary.
The World Bank’s warning falls head-on on the population UN projections which underscore how dominant economies may need to rethink their growth models as they age.
India likely overtook China as the world’s most populous country this month, and its population – which the UN estimates at 1.42 billion – is seen as almost certain to continue growing. Yet even in India, the fertility rate has now fallen below replacement level, and the UN estimates that the population could stabilize by the mid-2060s.
John Wilmoth, director of the population division at the UN’s Department of Economic and Social Affairs, said on Monday this meant it was a “critical period” for India to maximize the “dividend demographic” as its workforce continued to grow, while other countries with rapidly aging populations should focus on policies to help parents balance work and family obligations and allow older people to stay in employment.
Although the World Bank expects labor shortage problems to be more acute in wealthier economies, fertility rates have also plunged in middle-income countries, such as China and India, which increases the risk that “many . . . will grow old before they become rich.
Changes in demographic trends are already fuel the competition to attract skilled workers. Australia and Canada are expanding migration opportunities. Germany, which was previously able to recruit from inside the EU, is looking for new sources of labor outside the bloc.
However, in many countries, the public debate on migration policy remains focused on efforts to stem the flow of illegal migrants and share the costs of accommodation for asylum seekers and refugees.
Meanwhile, the population of many low-income countries is set to grow rapidly even as climate change reduces economic opportunity and threatens to render entire regions uninhabitable. The World Bank found, in a report on global migration patterns, that most movements due to climate change have so far taken place over relatively short distances, within the same country, but it warned that this may soon change.
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