World still on track to exceed warming of 1.5C this year, EU agency says

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The global temperature rise is expected to hit an average of 1.55C above pre-industrial levels this year, the latest data from the EU earth observation agency confirmed, making it “virtually certain” to be the warmest on record.

The forecast temperature rise in 2024 compares with a climb of 1.48C in 2023. It represents a temporary breach of the ideal goal of no more than 1.5C, which is enshrined in the Paris climate agreement, a value that is measured over decades rather than just a single year.

Last month was the second-warmest October on record, and the 15th in a 16-month period for which the global average exceeded 1.5C above preindustrial levels. The average sea surface temperature hit 20.68C, the second-highest value on record for October, Copernicus reported.

The data came as climate experts feared action to tackle climate change would be hobbled by Trump’s promise to pull the US from the Paris accord. Almost 200 countries will meet in Baku next week at the UN COP29 summit to discuss the next stage of climate action.

The “new milestone in global temperature records” should “serve as a catalyst to raise ambition for the upcoming climate change conference”, said Samantha Burgess, deputy director of Copernicus.

Current government policies globally would lead to 3.1C of warming this century, the UN’s environment programme recently reported. Already it is estimated the planet has warmed by at least 1.1C, based on an IPCC body of scientists’ report in 2021.

“Assuming that Trump will indeed follow through on the rhetoric, the jury is still out on whether other countries will step up to fill that gap,” said Joeri Rogelj, research director at the Grantham Institute.

Scientists have linked a series of catastrophic events in recent months to the excess heat stored by greenhouse gases in the atmosphere and absorbed by the world’s seas from the burning of fossil fuels.

Flash floods in southern and eastern Spain were made more intense and twice as likely by climate change, according to a rapid analysis by scientists at World Weather Attribution.

These followed a severe hurricane season in the US and the Philippines, while Taiwan also suffered its biggest direct typhoon hit in 30 years. 

October also saw above-average rain in parts of Europe, the east of the Black Sea, parts of China, Australia and Brazil, while much of southern Africa was drier than average, with “ongoing drought” across the US. 

The naturally occurring Pacific Ocean warming phenomenon known as El Niño has contributed to a jump in global temperatures this year. A switch is under way to the reverse the cooling La Niña phenomenon across the Pacific, with the probability of it occurring between November and January put at 75 per cent, according to the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. This was already pushed back from previous forecasts, as the warming phenomenon persisted for longer.

Nonetheless, the average temperature anomaly for the rest of 2024 “would have to drop to almost zero to not be the warmest year”, Copernicus concluded.