Given skepticism about the accuracy of opinion polls and betting markets in predicting the presidential election, a different data set could provide new insights.
Tens of thousands of Americans have already cast their votes as both parties pushed early voting. Actually, Republicans even broke early voting records in some states after being rejected in previous cycles.
While the candidates selected by early voters are not yet known, data about who cast those ballots provides clues about the election. According to one Analysis from NBC NewsPennsylvania saw a surge in new Democratic women, while Arizona saw a surge in Republican men.
In the Keystone State, crucial to Kamala Harris’ hopes of victory, 33,874 female Democrats who did not vote in 2020 cast early ballots between October 1 and October 28. Among new male Democrats, the total is 21,292.
That number exceeds the number of Republicans who voted early in 2020, with 16,334 women and 16,679 men.
Certainly not all Democrats will choose Harris, and not all Republicans will choose Donald Trump. In addition, the number of new voters who have not registered with either party is around 8,000 for both men and women, representing a potentially crucial demographic.
However, NBC points out that the total number of new voters in Pennsylvania who cast their ballots early already exceeds 100,000, exceeding Joe Biden’s lead in that state in 2020, when he beat Trump by 80,555.
Pennsylvania-raised pop superstar Taylor Swift may have something to do with the influx of new female voters. After she endorsed Harris in September, that sparked a spark nationwide rush on voter registration.
Meanwhile, in Arizona, Republican men led the way among new early voters. According to NBC, this demographic cast 19,901 ballots between October 15 and October 28. Among Republican women there were 16,515. Among Democratic men and women, the totals were 10,487 and 13,533, respectively.
But the number of new early voters who are unaffiliated was much larger than in Pennsylvania, creating greater uncertainty about the final outcome in Arizona. Male and female Arizonans in this group cast 15,899 and 14,536 ballots, respectively.
As in Pennsylvania, the total number of new early voters in Arizona — nearly 91,000 — far exceeds Biden’s razor-thin victory of just 10,457 in 2020.
A key part of Trump’s campaign strategy is to mobilize low-turnout voters, those who don’t vote often. This has also spread to some people Concern among Republican activists that not as many door-to-door advertisers see. In contrast, the Harris campaign employed a more conventional ground game, with offices covering the battleground states and an army of paid staff and volunteers.
The polls remain tense in both states. According to the average of 538In Pennsylvania, Harris and Trump are tied at 48% each, while Trump leads in Arizona 48.8% to 46.7%.
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