President Donald Trump has repeatedly signaled that he is in no rush to reach a deal with Iran as he moves from all-out war to a campaign of economic pressure.
After 40 days of heavy bombing and two more weeks of daily attacks, the US is now relying on a naval blockade to force Iran to fully reopen the Strait of Hormuz and return global oil markets to normality.
But the regime has plans it wants to pursue Attack mode If there is no diplomatic progress, this will soon force the US back into a major fight, just as vulnerabilities have emerged in its own military.
Iran has moved from a defensive posture to a “fully offensive” posture, said a senior Iranian official Reuters on Monday, citing the stalemate with the U.S. in the talks.
Unless the US implements the June ceasefire agreement in a few weeks, Iran will launch a “timely and precise” attack to break the deadlock, the official warned.
“Iranian forces must be ready to escalate tensions in the Strait of Hormuz and the wider region, as Iran will be ready to make decisions and take action on difficult decisions,” the official added.
The threat comes after Iran recently reorganized its military to act more aggressively as factions in the government gave up hopes of negotiations.
Sources told The Wall Street Journal Arab intelligence services discovered preparations for a larger war, including the sending of Iranian commanders, weapons and intelligence to regional militias allied with the regime.
Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has also drawn up plans for further escalation, such as sabotaging internet cables in the Persian Gulf, fomenting unrest in neighboring states with large Shiite populations and even a possible ground attack in Kuwait, the report added.
“There is also a widespread view in Iran that the main war has not yet begun,” Mohammad Hassan Sangtarash, a Tehran-based defense analyst close to the Iranian government, told the newspaper magazine. “What we have seen so far is increasingly being interpreted in terms of a ‘salami slice’ tactic – a limited, gradual escalation aimed at weakening capabilities ahead of a major confrontation.”
Although its conventional forces were decimated by American-Israeli bombardment early in the war, Iran’s tactical situation has recently improved.
Iran has developed new rockets that are better able to evade air defenses, making U.S. military installations and allied oil infrastructure in the region more vulnerable.
The US military has also used up much of its inventory of interceptors, which is now so low that it was reportedly factored into Trump’s decision to call off a major escalation of the war.
Furthermore, even maintaining the naval blockade has put a strain on U.S. forces such as the USS Abraham Lincoln Aircraft carrier is fighting mental health and care issues amid a record-long time at sea. Another carrier is on its way to take its place, but other ships conducting blockade operations are likely to face similar logistical problems.
Conditions may be ripe for Iran to test U.S. resolve. And given that Damage caused by the US blockadeIran was not expected to sit idly by, especially now that it has more military influence to exploit.
Majidreza Hariri, head of the Iran-China Joint Chamber of Commerce, recently admitted that the US blockade will ultimately cause even more economic damage as an actual war.
To prevent this, he called on the regime to do whatever it takes to end the blockade, “be it through negotiations, supplications, threats or even war.”
“We must also remove the impression in the US that they can resort to such a measure at any time and make it clear to them that the consequences of such a measure could be serious,” Hariri added.