With Marfrig (MRFG3) advancing more and more in its capital, BRF shares (BRFS3) are experiencing an appreciation movement, which adds up to around 28% in 2023 and 4% this October.

Much of this demand for the shares of the owner of Sadia and Perdigão comes amid the increase in the stake of Marfrig in BRF, which this Monday (16) reported having reached 45% of the total capital.

In September, Marfrig had already increased its stake twice: the first time from 33.31% to 35.7742% and the second time up to 40.0529%. Meanwhile, MRFG3 suffers on the stock market, falling 23.1% in 2023 and 6.7% this month.

This Tuesday (17), Marfrig shares fell 3.9%, trading at R$ 6.65, and BRF shares fell 1.75%, to R$ 10.61. For comparison, Minerva (MEAT3) fell 1.39% and JBS (JBSS3) lost 0.93%, in a negative session for the entire sector.

Before this new purchase of participation, announced this week, BRF still had, according to data from the Stock Exchange, 36% of the free shares in circulation (free float), with around 74.8 thousand individual investors.

Given this scenario, the InfoMoney consulted Leandro Petrokas, research director and partner at Quantzed, to prepare the technical analysis of BRFS3 and MRFG3, as a way to guide investors on the current situation of the stock. Verify!

Marfrig technical analysis.

Starting with Marfrig, analyzing the weekly chart, Petrokas assesses that the stock is consolidating in a price range between R$ 6.10 and R$ 8.10, since the beginning of 2023.

“Despite being a range wide price range, with a range of 30%, between the support and resistance of this consolidation, however, this more stable behavior of the asset is striking, when compared to the movement of previous years,” he explains.

According to the analyst, in lateral contexts, such as the current one, an alternative would be to buy the asset in the support region and sell it in the resistance region.

MRFG3 Weekly Chart: July 2021 to October 2023

Meanwhile, from the point of view of the daily chart, Petrokas understands that the asset is in a “downtrend”, even respecting “the return lines of the bearish channel, since the beginning of September”.

Furthermore, he explains, paper prices are below three important moving averages, 9, 20 and 200 periods.

“In this context, we can see that the shares return at the end of the year, to R$ 6.10, with intermediate support, to R$ 6.40,” he evaluates.

On the contrary, the main resistances are located at R$ 7.10 and R$ 7.50, adds the expert.

MRFG3 Daily Chart: April to October 2023

BRF Technical Analysis

BRF, in turn, has a different setup than Marfrig, with both weekly and daily charts pointing to an uptrend.

According to Petrokas, in the first week of October, the asset managed to close above an important resistance, in the range of R$ 10.50, “establishing an ascending pivot on the weekly chart.”

“The asset is already working with prices above the 9-period and 20-period moving averages, with both averages pointing up, demonstrating a impulse paper buyer,” he says.

BRFS3 Weekly Chart: July 2021 to October 2023

“If the asset continues its upward trajectory, we can highlight possible objectives at R$ 11.80 and R$ 12.90, where old supports are located that now act as resistance for prices,” he added.

BRFS3 Daily Chart: June to October 2023

BRFS3 or MRFG3?

In summary, Petrokas points out that, currently, BRF shares are in greater demand, which has been generating an increase in prices.

“This does not mean that this behavior will continue.” indefinitelyAfter all, the market is dynamic and at any time an asset can suddenly change direction,” he points out.

The analyst, however, makes a reference to Charles Dow, who developed the theory of technical analysis to portray the moment: “The current trend is valid until it is reversed.”

Finally, it concludes that BRF has an upward trend and Marfrig has a downward trend.

“As long as the technical scenario does not change, it seems more interesting to look for purchases for BRF and operations bermuda (short sale) or avoid purchases from Marfrig,” he summarizes.

Related