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The writer is a member of senior research war in the group of experts of the Royal United Services Institute and has worked hard in Ukraine during the large -scale invasion of Russia
The Trump administration decision to stop US technical assistance and uncertainty about continuous intelligence exchange with kyiv will have consequences that have long been considered completely. The measures will not cause a rapid deterioration of the ability of Ukraine to resist, but will incur a cost in the living of Ukrainian soldiers and civilians. Nor do nothing to change the strategic calculation for kyiv, whose reluctance to accept an American agreement in any term reflects the existential bets for which President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is negotiating.
The United States has been the largest individual military donor to Ukraine. During the war, US support has expanded to cover a wide range of capacities. The United States made Kyiv the geospatial images at the beginning of the conflict. The loss of this will significantly reduce the rhythm of long -range attacks against the Russian army and the precision and effectiveness of strikes against military and strategic objectives. The reduction of wear and tear for Russian forces and infrastructure will not have an immediate impact, but will allow Russia to accumulate more systems to attack Ukraine closer to its borders over time.
The United States has also routinely provided Ukraine electromagnetic surveys of the battlefield. These are vital to plan medium and long -range operations, which helps Ukraine to understand the areas and frequencies affected by the Russian interference of navigation and control frequencies. This can have a more immediate impact than the loss of satellite images because Ukrainian forces have been using drones to compensate for their disadvantages in artillery and aerial power. It is likely that the loss of this data affects its efficiency.
Another category of assistance that could have been lost while the exchange of intelligence is separated is the early warning of long -range Russian attacks. This will reduce the time available for Ukraine to bring your aerial defenses to the preparation. As a result, a greater proportion of Russia’s long -range attacks will achieve its objectives and Ukraine will spend more air defense interceptors, already scarcity, trying to defeat its missiles.
The loss of military-technique assistance will also have several results. The United States provides a significant proportion of the artillery ammunition of Ukraine and other weapons. The loss of these will not feel immediately because Ukraine will first be based on reserves. Over time, however, the Ukrainian armed forces must ration their fire rate to reflect any volume of supply that European partners can ensure. This will allow Russia to close the defenses of Ukraine and cause an increase in Ukrainian low, as well as the loss of earth.
A very serious loss will be the access to maintenance for American weapons. The great portions of the military teams of Ukraine, from Obuses M777 to armored vehicles such as the Maxxpro MRAPS, are manufactured by US companies and have spare parts that only they can provide. If Ukraine is about such support, it is not yet clear if the United States will allow Europe to obtain spare parts, the result will be the progressive degivation of Ukraine forces. This would have a Great impact for summer.
The suspension of American assistance has a Cost of Ukrainian life. The Ukraine Army has some capacity to adjust and, in collaboration with European partners, compensate for deficiencies. The problem for kyiv is that, although the support of little or no American will cause the protraction of the conflict to be more painful, accepting an agreement from the United States without longer guarantees of the risk of the eventual subjugation of the country by Russia. Fighting while speaking is vital for Ukraine, and American coercion does not change that fact.
Since Ukraine will continue to fight, potentially challenging the United States, the risk is that the Trump administration continue to apply leverage. Next, they could close the Internet provider with Elon Musk Starlink satellite, seriously interrupting Ukrainian command and control.
The challenge for both Ukraine and its European allies is that it is not clear if the president of the United States cares about the collapse of the First Ukrainian line. The Trump administration has made it clear that it wants Europe to administer European security; If the fall of Ukraine causes this change, then the United States can see it as a strategic success. The White House may prefer to gain applause to achieve a peace, although in unnecessarily unfavorable terms to kyiv, but it is equally possible for the United States to be satisfied with a Ukrainian defeat, which will directly blame Zelenskyy.