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On Tuesday, Americans will vote in what will likely be the most important presidential election of our lifetimes. The candidates could not be more different, but the challenge that awaits them will be the same: how to renew the sense of purpose and national dynamism in a country that may well have reached the peak of its competitive powers.
The United States is still enjoying its post-pandemic growth streak. But great economic, political and social obstacles await us. Partisan politics won’t end this choice; in fact, they can get worse. Productivity is slowing, the population is aging, isolated social media bubbles are creating division, and the country faces competitive threats from China and other emerging markets, which are increasingly coalescing into their own post-Washington consensus alliances.
Yes, the United States still has a dynamic business environment, great universities, rich natural resources, and a relatively strong industrial base. However, it struggles with bureaucracy and inefficiency in both the public and private sectors, a self-serving elite, a workforce unprepared for the 21st century, and a desperately weakened sense of national unity. The most important thing is that today the United States no longer has a common purpose, or even an idea of what the common good could be.
Can the boat be turned? Such recoveries are rare but possible, according to a Rand Corporation report titled “The Sources of Renewed National Dynamism.” Hundreds of years of history are analyzed to examine how, or whether, great powers in crisis can regain their sense of purpose.
It is a sobering read. Countries are rarely able to reverse a competitive decline once it has begun. But few have been able to anticipate such a decline (as measured by a variety of factors, from share of global GDP, trade and military power to international leadership and cultural influence). They could then work to prevent it and devise new, sustainable systems for growth and shared prosperity.
Two illustrative examples were Great Britain in the 1840s and the United States after the 1890s. During these periods, countries were able to address multiple economic problems, political and social problems with important reform efforts that led to national renewal. Victorian Britain, for example, struggled against the negative environmental and labor impacts of industrialization, as well as growing inequality and political corruption. Post-gilded America had many of the same problems.
However, both countries eventually managed to pass radical reforms that improved workers’ rights and labor standards, increased access to education, gave electoral rights to new groups of voters, etc. Ultimately, this led to decades of broad-based growth and renewed national purpose.
How did they do it? First, they were able to diagnose the problem before it became unsolvable. As the Rand report points out, there are multiple examples of failed states, such as the Ottoman Empire and the Soviet Union, that did not even understand their problems until their decline was assured. In this sense, the United States today may have an advantage, as it is widely understood on both sides of the aisle, and among all social classes, that the country faces great internal and external challenges.
Still, correct diagnosis alone is not enough to prevent deterioration. Countries also need a problem-solving mindset and wide-ranging efforts to address their various challenges. The national renewal of Victorian Britain and Progressive-era America reflect this point. In both cases, political and business figures, activists, unions and various grassroots movements were part of a robust national debate on reform. I would say that this factor is also present today in the United States, where, despite political polarization, there is a rich debate from below about how the country should change.
Some state capacity and a functioning government are crucial to any reform effort (we hope Donald Trump doesn’t degrade those things if he is elected again). But perhaps the most crucial factor in national renewal is the acceptance of both the elites and the average citizen. In much of the history explored in the Rand report, renewed national dynamism overlapped significantly with the rise of public-spirited elites. Whether it was the landed aristocrats of 19th-century Britain who supported the reforms, or American progressives at the turn of the century who realized that their ability to earn money could be threatened in such an unequal and socially unstable country, the acceptance of the initiatives of reform by the elites was crucial. for national renewal.
Does America have that kind of acceptance today? At this point I feel much more pessimistic. While groups like the Patriotic Millionaires and the Republican Party’s Never Trump contingent are a step in the right direction, I hear from too many privileged people who simply don’t put the public good before their own tax rate. Experts who take huge pay cuts to engage in public service are vilified, and there is too much cynicism about our ability to improve the country.
The United States has big problems, but it still has enormous strengths. Our science and technology, our entrepreneurial spirit, our strong consumer base and our positive spirit are the envy of the world. But they are not laurels on which to rest. I pray that the next president will be honest about what is broken and rally Americans to fix it.